The Ottawa Senators’ miserable month may pace them out of a playoff spot

Back on Nov. 5, the Ottawa Senators struck big in a monster of a three-way trade to acquire star center Matt Duchene. Though the season hadn’t been a stellar one for Ottawa before that point, since mid-November the Senators have been one of the NHL’s coldest teams.

Wednesday night’s 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks has put the Senators further down in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Since acquiring Duchene, the Senators have won just three of their last 12 games, putting them at a 9-11-6 record on the season.

The going has clearly been tough for the Senators, who last year were one game away from playing for a Stanley Cup as one of two teams to make the Eastern Conference Final. On paper, the Senators of this season don’t look too different than the ones that played the Pittsburgh Penguins to seven games in last year’s postseason, but at 24 points Ottawa is third-last in the East with the walls closing in fast.

So, what’s the problem?

With Erik Karlsson in tow, you’d expect the Senators to do a better job on defense in their own zone. But, 24 games into the season, there’s been a big upswing in chances allowed in front of their own net.

Thanks to Micah Blake McCurdy’s HockeyViz, we can see the Senators’ heat map over the last two seasons change dramatically in front of their own net.

Last season, the Senators had done well keeping opposing chances to the outside, with higher scoring chances coming from bad angles around the net and at the perimeter. This year, there’s a large portion of their opponent’s shots coming from right in front of their net, meaning the Senators’ goaltenders have way more work to do to keep the puck out of the net.

And, so far this season, both starter Craig Anderson and backup Mike Condon haven’t been up to the task. Anderson is trending on the wrong side of 30 now at the age of 36, and his .895 save percentage in 21 games played is fourth-worst in the league for a goaltender with more than 10 games played. Condon’s .904 save percentage in nine games played is better, but not nearly enough to help offset the team’s deficiencies on defense this season.

It’s hard to win when you can’t defend your own zone and stop a few pucks, but it’s nearly impossible when your offense has gone stagnant. Duchene was acquired by the Senators to aid the team offensively, and so far through 12 games, the center has just two points.

It’s hard to fault Duchene, though, when the rest of the team has gone dry. As of Thursday, the Senators have 73 goals for on the season, and they’re the league’s sixth-worst team in that metric. Karlsson’s injury that kept him out five games hampered him a bit offensively, but his 17 points in 21 games is a far cry from leading the team in points like he did last year.

Forwards Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone have carried the Senators this year with 25 and 20 points, respectively, but their secondary scoring has been nowhere to be found. Only Stone has reached the double digit mark in goals (14) on the season, and we’re more than a quarter of the way through it.

Thursday’s game was the fourth time this year the Senators have been shut out, and the third time in the last month. Whatever schemes or lineups the Senators have been icing to try to get them out of this scoring funk just hasn’t been working.

Adding salt in the wound is, of course, how center Kyle Turris has faired since being moved to Nashville in the Duchene trade. The forward has 12 points in 13 games with the Predators, points the Senators could desperately need right about now.

And yet, there is time. Ottawa is just five points out of a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, and easy fixes and a scoring boost could catapult them back into a postseason position. The Senators are, however, likely fighting for one of three spots thanks to how talented the Metropolitan Division is. The pair of wild card spots in the East will likely go to Metropolitan teams, meaning the Senators are fighting with the likes of Montreal, Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Boston for a spot.

It’s a tough uphill battle to climb, and the Senators may run out of time to get back in it at the end of the day.