Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson should make for a 2-horse Norris Trophy race

The NHL will unveil the three Norris Trophy nominees on Friday for the 2016-17 season, and the only question left to answer is who the guy in distant third will be.

Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson and San Jose Sharks bearded wonder Brent Burns are far and away the two best defensemen in the NHL this season and will almost certainly get nominated for the award tomorrow.

But we’re bound by the laws of the internet to make predictions so you can laugh at us. So, here’s who should and will be Norris finalists this season.

Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

A class of their own. There’ll be time later to debate the merits of either actually winning the Norris, but for now we’ll settle for why they should be considered favorites.

Let’s start with Karlsson, the Lando Calrissian of the NHL: a smooth-skating defenseman with a wholly unique blend of guile, charm and craftiness that make him the best offensive d-man in the league. Karlsson has won the Norris twice before in 2011-12 and 2014-15. What makes this year different is the whole “buy-in” narrative surrounding him and Senators coach Guy Boucher. Boucher’s systems rely on defensive responsibility, and I suppose there was some question that Karlsson would “buy in” to that philosophy.

At any rate, he has. Karlsson trailed only Kris Russel in blocked shots this year (201). Anyone can block shots, but even his teammates have praised his ability to turn that stat into an asset for his signature offensive game:

“The blocks are so well thought out,” veteran Senators centre Chris Kelly said. “It’s not just going out there and fronting it, he’s realizing when the proper time is to block the shot and get the play going.”

He also finished third in takeaways (65). And added attention to detail didn’t hurt his playmaking: Karlsson finished with 71 points and a Corsi For % of 49.72 at even-strength. He has a strong case, especially since his defensive game was more improved than last season when he probably should’ve won the Norris Trophy.

Burns will likely run away with the award, however. He has a few compelling arguments. He led NHL defensemen in points (76), the whole league in shots on goal (320) and defenseman goals (29). Burns’ even-strength CF% was through the roof at 53.71.

He also led defenseman with 153 giveaways, but don’t worry about that part. Just don’t worry about it. (Karlsson was second with 106.)

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning don’t make that second-half push without Nikita Kucherov, but they don’t even find that window open without Hedman. Tampa Bay’s stud defenseman set career-highs in points (72), assists (56), power play points (33), and goals (16) this season while logging more minutes (24:30 average time on ice) than ever. In a season Tampa Bay needed Hedman to become a true No. 1, shutdown guy, he followed through. And they almost made the playoffs because of it.

Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens

An early contender, sure. By the end of November, Weber was on pace for career highs in goals, assists and points while ranking among the league leaders in blocks and hits. He was as well-rounded as ever.

As the Canadiens season faltered and Claude Julien was hired to save it, Weber’s status as a Norris favorite diminished. As for those career-highs, he fell five goals short (17), eight assists short (25) and 14 points short (42). He’ll get Norris votes, certainly. But it’d be a surprise if he ended up on the ballot.

Burns, Karlsson, and Hedman. Big thanks to Hedman for making this a true three-horse race and not the Burns v. Karlsson v. Other scenario it looked like a few months ago.

Burns, Karlsson, and Weber. Because Canadiens. Because grit. Because leadership.