Predators vs. Penguins 2017: Nashville roars back into Stanley Cup Final with Game 3 win

The fans in Nashville spent all day throwing a party, and now it’s not hard to see why. The Predators ended up rolling with a 5-1 victory over the Penguins in Game 3 that vaults them back into a Stanley Cup Final series that had not gone their way on the road.

It turns out coming home can fix a lot of problems. The Predators were already winning the shot battle during the first two games in Pittsburgh, but they lost both due to a combination of goaltending, penalties, finishing, and luck. This time around, the Predators stuck to a similar formula, and got the result they were expecting.

And it’s clear they expected to win because P.K. Subban literally said it to reporters in the lead-up to the game.

What’s most remarkable about the Predators’ change of fortune from Games 1-2 is how little things actually changed. They held 60.3 percent of the 5-on-5 shot-attempt share during the first two contests, per Natural Stat Trick. In Game 3, they took 54.1 percent of 5-on-5 shots, and that number trended downward due to score effects after Nashville pulled away. Through two periods, Nashville had recorded 60.9 percent of the shots.

Usually winning the shot battle to such a large degree is a great formula to win over the course of a series, even if you don’t win every game. The Predators surely knew that after the first two games, and it’s presumably a big part of what contributed to their confidence.

And now they’ve gone out and shown that confidence had logic behind it. The Penguins might be an incredible group of talent in their own right, but winning four of seven games when you’re taking roughly 40 percent of the shots is a tough ask, even if Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Co. might be uniquely capable of pulling it off.

The Penguins didn’t win their past two Stanley Cups with such abysmal possession numbers, and now we’re seeing that Nashville will indeed make it difficult for them to win a third. The Preds may be trailing, 2-1, in the series, but given how the first three games have gone, they’re firmly in this thing.

Predators 5, Penguins 1 (Pittsburgh leads series, 2-1)

The Jake Guentzel show won’t end

Guentzel has had a postseason for the history books. By beating Pekka Rinne in the first period to put the Penguins up 1-0, Guentzel elevated himself to tied for third all-time among NHL rookies in playoff scoring. With 13 goals and seven assists in 22 games, he’s now just one point away from tying the record.

Here’s the leaderboard, via Hockey-Reference’s Play Index:

T1. Dino Ciccarelli, 1981 North Stars — 21 points
T1. Ville Leino, 2010 Flyers — 21 points
T3. Jake Guentzel, 2017 Penguins — 20 points
T3. Don Maloney, 1979 Rangers — 20 points
5. Brad Marchand, 2011 Bruins — 19 points

For the 2017 playoffs, Guentzel leads all players in goals (13), even-strength goals (11), and game-winning goals. He’s taken just 44 shots on goal, so he’s succeeding with a 29.5 shooting percentage. That’s one good thing about the postseason — sometimes you can get hot and stay hot before the hockey gods come a-calling.

Holy crap, Bridgestone Arena

We knew it’d be loud. We knew it’d be wild. We knew there would be celebrities. We knew there would be catfish.

And yet, still, it was remarkable seeing how crazy this arena in Tennessee got watching a Stanley Cup game. I mean, the place was absolutely rocking, to the extent that the atmosphere in the building stood out nearly as much as the thrilling action on the ice. They even had a crazy party to get pumped before the game even started.

It was impossible to ignore the fans once the game got underway, too. Whether it was the “IT’S ALL YOUR FAULT” chant toward Matt Murray, some catfish on the ice, or just the sheer loudness that was persistent through the whole game, the energy was palpable. Even sitting in a living room watching on TV.

As a hockey fan, it was awesome to watch. Here’s a nontraditional market in the American South, and it’s going absolutely bonkers for the Stanley Cup. It’s cool to see.

Advantage, Subban-Ekholm

The Penguins second line, which featured Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Chris Kunitz, is usually a good bet for them. But in Game 3, they were struggling in their own end most of the time.

The Predators primarily used Subban and Mattias Ekholm against that trio to great success. They matched up together for eight of Malkin’s nearly 11 minutes of 5-on-5 action and helped limit him to his first shotless game since mid-January.

Malkin also ended up finishing dead last on the Penguins in 5-on-5 Corsi for Game 3, which is not usually where you see the superstar center. He recorded goals in the first two games of the series. Things were much different in Nashville, however.

The Predators badly needed a goal to get back on track after the Pens went up 1-0. Josi obliged:

Guentzel remains hard to ignore if the Penguins can win a couple of more. He hasn’t recorded as many points as Crosby or Malkin, but he’s got a juicy story, and everyone loves a juicy story. On the Predators’ side, Josi remains a prime option after his three-point effort. With 14 points, Josi is just one behind forward Filip Forsberg for the team lead this postseason.