The Michigan Wolverines are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but just 2-6 at South Bend since 1998.
Michigan vs. Notre Dame betting odds preview and Pick
Michigan is an underdog at Notre Dame, where they usually lose. But the Odds Shark computer is picking an upset. (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET.)
Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
Despite their recent success in this series, the Wolverines are the betting underdog this Saturday going off at +5 on the road against Notre Dame.
Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 45-39 Michigan
Everett Golson has never lost a regular season game under center at Notre Dame, improving to 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS all-time in last Saturday’s win over Rice. He is poised to improve to 14-0 when he leads the Fighting Irish to a win and cover as a 5-point favorite over Michigan on Saturday.
If you think UM is a nasty underdog, think again. Since the start of 2012, oddsmakers have given them points 10 times and they lost SU nine times, according to the Odds Shark college football database.
Golson was spectacular in his return to action last week. After missing the entire 2013 season due to academic suspension, Golson passed for 295 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 41 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut.
The senior quarterback should have another big day this week going up against a vulnerable Michigan defense. Notre Dame is 20-5 SU over its last 25 games.
Michigan enters this week with just a 2-5 SU record over its last seven games. The Wolverines are also only 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven road games against Notre Dame.
To pull off the road upset, Michigan will likely need to get the running game going against a Notre Dame defense that is replacing five of last year’s seven starters in the front seven.
With a Michigan defense coming off a shaky season and a Notre Dame defense replacing a handful of starters up front, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this game go OVER the total. The OVER is 9-5 in the last 14 games between these two teams and 4-2 over the last six.
If this game were being played in the Big House, a much stronger case could be made for Michigan. But on the road, the Wolverines are just 5-8 SU and ATS in their last 13 games, and historically they’ve had trouble playing at South Bend.
The Fighting Irish should be able to make enough plays on offense and in the secondary to win this game by a touchdown or more.
