The Michigan State Spartans are 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games away from home, but they'll be a 13-point underdog this Saturday in Eugene when they visit the Oregon Ducks. Michigan State's outstanding road record in recent seasons and a fantastic defense make the Spartans a sold pick at +13 going into Oregon.
Michigan State vs. Oregon betting odds preview and Pick
Michigan State is money in the bank as an underdog, but can they cover in Oregon? (FOX, 6:30 p.m. ET.)
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Shark Computer Pick: 40-28 Oregon
Dating back to last season, Michigan State is riding an 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record over its last 11 games. The Spartans own a sensational 8-0-1 ATS record in their last nine games as a betting underdog including five outright wins in their last six games in that role. Their most recent upset was in a 24-20 win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl as a 6.5-point underdog.
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That is the same Stanford team that Oregon is 0-2 SU and ATS against in its last two games against. Michigan State plays a similar brand of football to Stanford, protecting the ball on offense and playing stingy, physical defense.
Oregon is usually a massive favorite at home, but the Ducks have lost each of their last two games at home in which they have been favored by less than 20 points and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games favored by under three touchdowns. The total has gone OVER in nine of those 10 games.
Oregon deserves to be the big favorite this week. With Marcus Mariota at quarterback (close secoond in Heisman odds heading into Week 2), the Ducks run their high-octane offense to near perfection. And in addition to having excellent home field advantage, the Ducks will be facing a Michigan State defense that has a lot of new starters that could easily be caught off guard for big plays by Oregon’s speed and athleticism.
With that said, nothing in the Mark Dantonio era suggests that the Michigan State Spartans will be over-matched by anyone. Quarterback Connor Cook won’t be fazed by a hostile road environment, and should be able to make enough plays along with the defense to keep this game close into the fourth quarter and cover the 13-point spread.
