NCAA Tournament historical trends breakdown

Over the last three NCAA tournaments the No. 12 seeds are 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS against the No. 5 seeds. This year’s No. 5 seeds will be on high alert heading into the Round of 64 this Thursday and Friday.

No. 12 seeds have historically enjoyed success as a bracket-buster against No. 5 seeds, scoring at least one outright upset in 14 of the last 15 tournaments (the only exception being in 2007). But with a 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 record over the last two seasons, No. 12 seeds have put No. 5 seeds on higher alert than ever.

Arkansas is the biggest favorite among the No. 5 seeds this year at -7.5 against No. 12 Wofford at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

From 2002 to 2011 the No. 2 seeds all safely navigated their way through opening matchups against No. 15 seeds. But that changed when two No. 15 seeds won outright in 2012 and one struck again in 2013.

No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast’s 2013 upset over Georgetown was particularly memorable; entering the game as a 13-point underdog, FGCU cruised to a shocking 78-68 win. No. 2 seeds got back on track in 2014 with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record.

Each of the last two NCAA tournaments have seen a No. 14 seed top a No. 3 seed. The Duke Blue Devils fell to Mercer last season as a 12.5-point favorite, and New Mexico was bested by Harvard as a 10.5-point favorite in 2013.

No. 3 seeds have generally been safe in recent years, however, with a 14-2 SU and 10-6 ATS record since 2011. Baylor is the only No. 3 seed this year that isn’t favored by double digits at -9 over Georgia State at the sportsbooks.

Duke should feel a lot more comfortable this season as a No. 1 seed instead of a No. 3 seed. A No. 1 seed has never fallen to a No. 16 seed, but No. 16 seeds have been making good use of their huge point spreads of late. No. 16 seeds are 8-4 ATS over the last three NCAA tournaments and 6-2 ATS over the last two.