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Come Fan with UsTuesday, June 30, 2026

Kentucky Derby 2015 picks: Betting value beyond the top favorites

Horses like Firing Line and Materiality will try to pay off their backers and upset American Pharoah and Dortmund in the Kentucky Derby.

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

American Pharoah and Dortmund head into Saturday as the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. But for bettors looking to take their chances on a long shot with a better payout, there are plenty of value plays to be found in this year's deep field.

Though he lacks experience, Materiality has earned some buzz as a 16/1 horse to win the Kentucky Derby at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Materiality is the only horse other than Dortmund (6-0-0) in this race to have never tasted defeat with a 3-0-0 career record.

While he has been mostly untested against elite competition, Materiality did pass his one big test in winning the Grade I Florida Derby in March.

There is no lack of experience for Frosted, a horse that has already participated in seven races over the course of his young career. While Frosted has only two wins in those seven races, one of those wins came in the horse's last trip out in the Grade I Wood Memorial Stakes.

The 107 Beyer speed that Frosted recorded in that race was the highest Beyer number that any horse in this field has achieved. Frosted is going off at 16/1 on the odds to win the Kentucky Derby.

And perhaps the most popular of the value picks in this race is Firing Line at 12/1 at the sportsbooks. In five career starts Firing Lane has finished in at least second place every time, winning two of his last four races and being narrowly edged out by Dortmund in the other two.

Firing Line enters the Kentucky Derby off a dominant 14-length victory in the Grade III Sunland Derby and should be right in the thick of it down the stretch.

Other potential value picks among the longer shots include Mubtaahij (12/1), Ocho Ocho Ocho (25/1), International Star (25/1), Upstart (25/1) and Itsaknockout (33/1).

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