The New England Patriots are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread on the road this season. With one more road win this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots would secure home field throughout the postseason.
Patriots vs. Dolphins odds: New England a large favorite at Miami to close out regular season
The New England Patriots visit the rival Miami Dolphins as large betting favorites in Week 17 hoping to lock up the top seed in the AFC.
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New England is a 9.5-point road favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Patriots are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against the Dolphins.
The Patriots have been on cruise control on offense since the return of Tom Brady, boasting a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record over their last 11 games. But Brady isn’t the only reason that the Patriots are excelling; the team ranks eighth in the NFL in rushing with 116.8 yards per game and best in the NFL in scoring defense allowing only 15.7 points per game. With New England playing so well at every level, home field throughout the playoffs would certainly strike fear into the rest of the conference.
In New England’s last 21 games as a betting favorite of a touchdown or more, the Patriots are 18-3 SU and 12-6-3 ATS per the OddsShark NFL Database.
Betting Line / Total: New England -9.5 / 44.5 Points
Trend: The Patriots are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.
Trend: The Dolphins are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
After looking like a bottom feeder in the AFC with a 1-4 SU and ATS start, Miami completely turned its season around with a 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS run. The turnaround began when Jay Ajayi took over the starting running back job with a 204-yard performance against Pittsburgh, his first of three games with over 200 yards rushing this season. Even without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have continued to roll with back-to-back wins. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with winning records.
Sunday’s total is set at 44.5 points. The OVER is 5-0 in Miami’s last five games as a betting underdog.
New England has more to gain from this game than Miami does with the chance to secure the top seed in the AFC. But Miami may still opt to go all out in this game regardless of already having a playoff spot locked up, as a win would keep the Dolphins red hot and serve as a nice confidence booster against one of the best teams in the NFL.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
When: Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
