As was expected, the playoff picture became much clearer this weekend.
Major League Soccer Review, Week 28: Only One Invitation Left
Sounders, Earthquakes lock up playoff spots and Galaxy pull four points ahead in Supporters Shield race as the MLS Cup Playoffs come into focus.
The Los Angeles Galaxy have built a four-point cushion with two matches to play for the Supporters Shield; New York Red Bulls moved to two points ahead of the Columbus Crew for the lead in the Eastern Conference; and the Seattle Sounders and San Jose Earthquakes clinched playoff berths.
The only spot that is even remotely up for grabs is the No. 8 playoff position. For that to change hands it would require the Colorado Rapids to lose their final two matches (not impossible with matches at Los Angeles and home against rival Real Salt Lake) and for the Kansas City Wizards to win their final three (which would require two road victories). That would leave both sides with 42 points, but the Wizards hold the first tiebreaker (head-to-head points).
More likely is the possibility that there will be some shuffling within the Western Conference standings. While it seems unlikely that RSL -- or anyone else for that matter -- will be able to catch the Galaxy, FC Dallas is within two points of RSL and Seattle, San Jose and Colorado are all within three points of one another.
The stakes in the battle for the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference are pretty minimal; basically we’re talking about which team gets to host the second leg of their two-match aggregate score first-round match-up. Those other three spots, however, are potentially playing for a more intriguing pot. As odd as it may seem, the team that finishes at the top of that heap will have a tougher playoff match-up -- at least on paper -- than at least one of the other two. The team that finished fourth in the West will draw the Galaxy in Round 1. The team that finishes fifth in the West will almost certainly draw Columbus, literally the worst team in MLS over their past five matches.
The Sounders are playing well enough that it seems hard to see them tanking matches in order to drop a spot in the standings -- plus finishing in the top six in the MLS regular season guarantees them a spot in the third round of the U.S. Open Cup, a tournament they take more seriously than just about any other team. Colorado and San Jose might be more interested in avoiding Los Angeles, although it is worth noting that both teams have played much better against the Galaxy than the Sounders (who have been outscored 7-1 in two regular-season matches against the Galaxy).
The Quakes have been particularly good against Eastern Conference opponents, claiming 28 of their 43 points in 14 matches. The Rapids, too, have been better against East than the West (22 points in 15 matches), although they haven’t won on the road against the East since May 15 and they haven’t beaten any prospective playoff teams from either conference on the road all season.
Assuming the match-ups remain the same as they are right now, just about all of them are potentially intriguing.
1W Galaxy vs. 4W Sounders: This is literally a dream match-up for MLS with two of the marquee franchises going head-to-head. Sellouts in both stadiums would be practically guaranteed and it would almost certainly set a MLS record for highest attendance for a playoff series. The match-up on the field is even more intriguing. While the Galaxy easily handled the Sounders in their two regular season encounters, both teams are in very different places than the last time they met. The Sounders have lost just once since that 3-1 loss to the Galaxy on July 4, while the Galaxy have cooled considerably (claiming 20 points in the 13 matches since).
2W RSL vs. 3W FCD: RSL doesn’t lose at home (MLS record 24-match home unbeaten streak) and FCD just doesn’t lose (MLS record 19-match overall unbeaten streak). Both of these teams do a lot of things right, and have the first and third best goal-differentials in MLS. They both have very good goalkeepers playing behind shutdown defenses and boast multi-pronged offensive attacks. Dallas was the last team to beat RSL (2-0 on July 17), but they’ll play each other at “El Castillo” on Saturday.
1E Red Bulls vs. 4E Rapids: The Red Bulls have the Designated Players, but the top end talent at Colorado is as good as any. Omar Cummings and Conor Casey might not have the paychecks to match up with Juan Pablo Angel, Thierry Henry and Rafa Marquez, but their production matches up just fine. Casey and Cummings have combined for 23 goals and seven assists, while New York's DP trio has 17 goals and seven assists. The Red Bulls would definitely be the favorites, but this has all the makings of an entertaining series.
2E Crew vs. 3E Earthquakes: There's simply no denying that the Crew are a wounded team. They haven't won any of their past five MLS matches and have been outscored 11-3 during that stretch. That said, these two teams have played twice this year and have tied both times, most recently two weeks ago. Geovanni has helped make the Quakes' attack a little more nuanced, but the reality is that Chris Wondolowski is their only player with more than three goals and one of three with more than one. The Crew defense has been battered recently but is still very capable and their offense has plenty of weapons. This certainly wouldn't be the most exciting match-up, but it might be the most even.
As for matches that were actually played this week, there were some good ones.
Galaxy 1, Union 0: It certainly wasn't always pretty, but the Galaxy may have locked up the Supporters Shield with their road win on Thursday. The Galaxy were largely outplayed, but Edson Buddle was able to get a clean look at a David Beckham corner kick and scored his MLS-leading 16th goal.
Fire 2, Crew 0: Coming off a seven-match winless streak and facing three straight playoff teams, it seemed like the Fire’s season was going to turn real ugly real fast. Instead, they’ve managed to win two of those three games and, while already having been eliminated from the playoffs, at least appear poised to head into the offseason feeling good about the future. The Crew are having a much harder time finding silver linings. They had also lost earlier in the week to the Sounders in the U.S. Open Cup final and could conceivably lose their automatic berth in next year’s tournament if they don’t turn it around. Although their playoff spot is set in stone at this point, the other teams are probably licking their chops at the prospect of playing them.
RSL 0, Red Bulls 0: While NYRB seemed to have the better overall play, it was RSL who had the better scoring opportunities. The Red Bulls outshot RSL 16-8, but only one of them was on target. Either of RSL's on-target shots could have easily been goals, but New York's backup keeper Greg Sutton came up big both times. Sutton also got some help from the frame, as RSL rang two shots off the post.
Rapids 2, FCD 2: Jeff Larentowicz's 13th minute goal marked the second time since July 17 that the Hoops have trailed in a match. But a first-half goals from Milton Rodriguez and David Ferreira meant FCD's unbeaten streak wasn't in danger for long. Larentowicz scored again in the 51st minute to help take a lot of intrigue out of the final two weeks of the season, as the Rapids now just need a combination of one point or one Kansas City loss or tie to clinch a playoff spot.
Earthquakes 2, DC United 0: Quietly Chris Wondolowski continues to make a compelling case for league MVP. His two goals gave him 14 for the season, a total that accounts for about 47 percent of his team's scoring. It's scary to imagine where the Quakes would be without "Wondo", but wherever it is you can bet that it wouldn't be in the playoffs for the first time since MLS returned to San Jose in 2008.
Sounders 2, Wizards 1: Knowing they only needed a point to clinch a playoff spot, the Sounders did what you'd expect for much of the match. They mostly hunkered down and looked for counter-strike opportunities, especially early in the match. Their patience paid off when Sanna Nyassi scored off his own rebound and Alvaro Fernandez scored a goal that will likely be nominated for Goal of the Week. Kansas City now needs to win all three of their final three matches and for Colorado to lose both of theirs in order to make the playoffs.
Chivas USA 3, Toronto FC 0: If there was any doubt that the Reds were going to simply play out the string, this should have sealed it. The Goats snapped a four-match losing streak and managed to give their fans something to cheer about. The highlight of the match was undoubtedly Rodolfo Espinoza's strike from just outside the penalty area.
Revolution 2, Dynamo 1: The final match of the weekend had Sunday all to itself, but only a select few probably bothered to watch. Making this even less of a showcase match, the Revolution had just three available players on their bench because of injuries and national team call-ups. Steve Nicol also opted to give Bobby Shuttleworth just his third career start. It all didn't matter, though, as the Revs won for the first time since beating the Sounders on Sept. 4.
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