Over the years, mixed martial arts has been a sport defined by slow rises to fame and sustained careers. Generally, in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, guys don't get early title shots, they're earned. It took Lyoto Machida until his 15th professional fight and his sixth fight in UFC to get a title shot. Georges St. Pierre was a bit of a quick riser, getting a shot in his eighth professional fight, but he didn't win his first title until his 14th. The legendary Iceman, Chuck Liddell, got his first title shot in his 14th fight. Even the best of the best have to wait for their time. In the cases of Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, success has come early, with both getting title shots before their tenth professional fight.
A Footy Fan’s Guide To A Title Fight: UFC 121, Lesnar vs. Velasquez
As the Ultimate Fighting Championship takes center stage of SB Nation this evening, ardent footy fans may feel lost. No worries, says the SB Nation Soccer desk, who have this soccer fan’s guide to tonight’s Brock Lesnar-Cain Velazquez main event.
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Before we break down the title fight, let’s give all the footy fans unfamiliar with MMA a background in the sport’s structure.
UFC has become the de-facto first division of MMA. Their eccentric commissioner, Dana White, has more personality than anyone who runs any sports league in the world. White says what he wants, when he wants, throws in a few f-bombs in the process, and doesn’t care who he offends. His public persona and marketing genius has led UFC to draw the biggest crowds, the biggest pay-per-view audiences, and as a result, draw the biggest fighters, make the most money, and become the highest level of competition.
There have been a variety of lower divisions that have attempted to challenge the supremacy of UFC, and many of them used to do so quite well. UFC has been number one for quite some time, but it has only increased its juggernaut status in recent years. UFC is bigger than the Premier League was when it paid the biggest transfer fees and had four teams in the UEFA Champions League. Pride used to challenge UFC, but their cash dried up, UFC bought them up, and now UFC is filled with some of Pride’s best former fighters.
Current promotions attempting to challenge UFC, de-facto second divisions, include Japan's DREAM and Strikeforce, a United States-based promotion that has a working relationship with DREAM in which the promotions' fighters can go between the two promotions. Strikeforce is a reasonably new promotion; the second tier of MMA changes a lot. Kind of like U.S. soccer.
The crowned jewel of this second division is Russian heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. Fedor is actually part-owner of M-1 Global, a Netherlands-based promotion that can be considered as a third division promotion. Interestingly enough, also considered to be on this level us U.S. based Bellator, whose head announcer is Sean Wheelock, former Kansas City Wizards play-by-play man and current World Football Phone-In correspondent. Fedor has been criticized for being scared to test himself against the best in UFC, but at least he recognizes that third division would be way below his level. As a result, he negotiates temporary fight contracts with Strikeforce, kind of like a loan deal. He formerly fought in Pride at a very high level, what would have still been considered "first division" MMA at the time, but it's arguable whether Pride or UFC was the highest level. Recently, he lost for only the second time in 35 fights due to a spectacular submission from gigantic underdog Fabricio Werdum. As a result, if Fedor does ever want to make the jump to the top flight, his salary will be way less than it would have been before the Werdum fight. The mystique is now gone, and Dana White now has all the leverage. Maybe Fedor will make the jump for low wages in an attempt to win a big fight and preserve his legacy? Only time will tell.
One of the fighters from Strikeforce that has made the jump to top flight MMA is Jake Shields, the current holder of the Strikeforce middleweight title and one of the men in the co-main event on today's UFC 124 card. Shields made a name for himself in both Strikeforce and the now defunct EliteXC, a former second division-level promotion. He hasn't lost since 2004 and his breakthrough fight that upped UFC's interest in him came in April of this year. After a long and successful career at the top of MMA, aging superstar Dan Henderson made the drop down to Strikeforce. Henderson probably thought he could take his fat paycheck and coast through the twilight of his career against lesser opposition, a bit like Claudio Reyna in MLS. Like Reyna, Henderson soon found out that there are second division guys who can play, and at his old age, he just wasn't cut out for it anymore. Jake Shields laid Dan Henderson to waste, dominating four out of the five rounds in the fight and taking a unanimous decision.
Tonight, we will find out if Jake Shields is Tim Cahill or Jermaine Beckford. Was he always undervalued and just waiting for a shot at the big time to shine? Can he be an elite fighter at this level? Or was he just picking on slow, unskilled guys? Maybe the speed and skill at the top flight will be overwhelming, and he'll look like he's playing at a level a step or two above his ability.
While the Shields fight against Martin Kampmann will be entertaining, we know what everyone's really tuning in for. The title fight between Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar has the most hype since...well...the last Brock Lesnar fight.
The rise of Lesnar seems comparable with the rise of Thierry Henry. When Henry arrived at Arsenal from Juventus, he was coming off a poor season. Everyone knew that he was a top notch talent, but it was questionable whether or not he could harness that talent and become a world class footballer. Henry went scoreless in his first eight games as a Gunner, raising doubts about his skills. While Lesnar showed ability in his first few MMA fights, it was obvious that he was struggling to adapt to the skillset required in this game, just like Henry struggled to adjust to the Premier League. Once Henry adjusted, he exploded, scoring 26 goals in his first season. He went on to be an Arsenal legend and win Golden Boots and Premier League titles. Like Henry, once Lesnar adjusted to the new game, he quickly became a dominant force.
Cain Velasquez’s rise to fame is most comparable to another Gunner, current Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas. Just like Fabregas, everyone knew that Velasquez had potential to be a superstar when they saw him knock out Brad Morris and Jake O’Brien at the beginning of his MMA career. Like Fabregas, we didn’t know that he was going to go from promising youngster to world beating superstar so quickly. After a couple of good seasons to start his Arsenal career, Fabregas quickly became a world class player in the 2006-2007 season, tallying 16 assists in all competitions, nine more than his previous career high. That was the rise. In September of the 2007-2008 season, Fabregas almost single-handedly demolished Spurs and Sevilla back-to-back in four days. He had arrived. Seemingly overnight, Fabregas went from being one of the most promising young players in the world to simply one of the best players in the world.
When Velasquez knocked out Big Nog, Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueria, winning Knockout of the Night honors at UFC 110, everyone realized he had arrived. Just by taking out Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell and by becoming the headliner of a major event, we really should have known that he was already world class. We shouldn't have needed that knockout, just like we shouldn't have needed the Spurs and Sevilla games to realize Fabregas was among the world's best. For some reason, though, we needed that last little bit of convincing. After less than two years on the biggest stage, Cain Velasquez was already one of the greatest fighters in the world. The Big Nog fight was just the last piece of evidence we needed to come to that final conclusion.
So, to the meat and potatoes of this article...1400 words later. Who’s going to win the fight? Lesnar’s size advantages (20 lbs, 4” reach) indicate that he’s the slight favorite. Both fighters are equally strong at wrestling, both pack one punch knock-out power, and both possess an iron chin. However, when it comes to cardio, Velasquez is almost universally regarded as the fittest fighter in the heavyweight division. Lesnar is the more likely fighter to land a massive knock-out blow or get on top in a ground battle simply because of his size, but the longer the fight goes, the better off Velasquez is. If Velasquez can keep himself off the canvas for a couple of rounds, he’s got a good shot at winning. If Brock can land a big shot in the first two rounds, it will probably be goodnight for Cain.
Prediction
Lesnar def. Velasquez (TKO, strikes), Round Two
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