A third of the way through the season, a Rapids-Crew MLS Cup final would not have been that hard to imagine. The Crew were the top team in the Eastern Conference at 21 points and the Rapids were tied for the second most points in the Western Conference at 19 points. They also had the third and fourth best respective goal-differences.
Major League Soccer Playoffs, Preview: Surging Rapids Look To Take Down Ailing Crew
Their seasons went in divergent directions for each of the next two-thirds of the season. While the Crew continued their strong start, the Rapids hit a lull in games 11-20. In the season’s final third, it was the Rapids who found their form, while the Crew went into a serious tailspin.
As the season enters its epilogue, the Rapids have the look of a team perfectly positioned to put the Crew out of their misery. Conor Casey and Omar Cummings are playing as good as any forward pairing in the league (15 goals in the Rapids' final 10 matches) and the Crew are suddenly without their starting goalkeeper (Andy Gruenebaum will be starting in place of the injured William Hesmer).
Chad Marshall and Andy Iro would seem to be a decent match-up for those two, but they are in the middle of a defense that allowed 14 goals in its final seven matches. Behind them is Gruenebaum, who has a MLS career save percentage of just .617 and didn't start a game this season but did register three shutouts in six CONCACAF Champions League starts.
The Rapids have quietly put together the fourth best goal-difference in MLS, the best of any team playing in the Eastern Conference. In addition to Cummings and Casey, they actually boast a capable midfield that features the resurgent Pablo Mastroeni and veteran Brian Mullan and have a defense that has been surprisingly effective. Marvell Wynne seems to have finally figured out how to effectively use his speed, Drew Moor has been solid if less spectacular and Matt Pickens has proven to be a perfectly reliable goalkeeper (his recent gaffe against RSL withstanding).
Guillermo Barros Schelotto is still a dangerous playmaker, and really the guy on whom the Crew will rely to create the bulk of their offense, but he's not the scorer he once was. Although he had nine goals to go along with nine assists, just four of the goals were in the run of play. He's mostly been paired with Steven Lenhart up front, and while the big man has shown an improved scoring touch, he's still more of a physical presence than anything else.
Aside Schelotto, the Crew's most dynamic offensive players are probably Robbie Rogers, Emmanuel Ekpo and Emilio Renteria. But for all their physical talents, Ekpo and Rogers have combined for just two goals across all competitions this year (53 games). Renteria has scored five goals, but has been limited to just 857 minutes.
Probably lineups
Colorado Rapids (4-4-2): FW: Casey, Cummings; MD: Jamie Smith, Jeff Larentowicz, Mastroeni, Mullan; DF: Rodney Wallace, Moor, Wynne, Kosuke Kimura; GK: Pickens.
Columbus Crew (4-4-1-1): FW: Schelloto, Lenhart; MD: Rogers, Adam Moffat, Brian Carroll, Eddie Gaven; DF: Shaun Francis, Iro, Marshall, Frankie Hejduk; GK: Gruenebaum.
Key Matchups
- Cummings-Casey vs. Iro-Marshall: Two of the hottest forwards are going up against two of the coldest center backs. The form obviously favors the the Rapids, but if the Crew are going to have any hope of winning this series, it will have to start here
- Mastroeni vs. Schelotto: Both are their teams’ undisputed veteran leaders and are enjoying resurgences of sorts this year. Mastroeni played more minutes this year than in any season since 2000. Schelotto’s production is down a little from last year, but he’s healthier than he’s ever been with 300 more minutes than in any of his previous three seasons. If Mastroeni can stop Schelotto, the Crew attack will be almost nonexistant.
- The Rapids vs. the road: When the Rapids beat the Galaxy at the Home Depot Center it was significant for reasons beyond clinching a playoff spot. That win represented the only time the Rapids won a road game against a playoff team. In their seven road games against playoff teams, the Rapids earned just five points and were outscored 13-9 in those games, including a 3-1 loss at Columbus. Winning on the road isn’t an absolute must, but remaining competitive is.
History you should know
The postseason has not been kind to Colorado. In their 14 previous seasons, they’ve won a total of five postseason rounds, haven’t played in the MLS Cup finals since 1997 and haven’t even made it to the postseason since 2006. Just nine players on their roster have any playoff experience and Mastroeni is the only who has done it as a member of the Rapids. The team hasn’t even made the main draw of the U.S. Open Cup since 2007. Winning in the postseason is just not part of this team’s DNA, something they are obviously hoping to change.
Head-to-head
Each team won their home game, but if those results repeat themselves it will be the Crew who move on as they outscored the Rapids 3-2.
The Crew will advance if: Iro and Marshall can regain the form that had people calling them one of the top centerback tandems in MLS and Schelotto can find room to create.
The Rapids will advance if: Cummings and Casey continue their amazing run and the playoff experience of Larentowicz and Mullan somehow rubs off on their teammates.
Pick: Rapids win 4-1 on aggregate as Gruenebaum is simply overwhelmed by the Rapids’ attack.
Downloadable match card with formation and lineup information as well as statistics and broadcast details: Rapids-Crew Game 1Preview
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