Mexican Primera, Liguilla Quarterfinals, Second Leg Previews: Upsets Seem Unlikely

After the first legs of the Liguilla quarterfinals, it appears that the top seeds are in control of all four ties. None of them lost on the road and Cruz Azul even managed to win. Every road team will have to get aggressive in the return legs on the weekend, which should make for some awesome football.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la U.N.A.M.

Saturday, 6 pm ET. TV: Azteca America

The Blue Machine pulled off an important 2-1 road win against Pumas on Wednesday and will go into the home leg of their tie confident of advancing to the semifinals of Liguilla. They’ll probably have to score to do it, though, since they aren’t the best team in the world at sitting back and defending. Additionally, Pumas will be out guns blazing and have plenty of competent strikers.

Winning by two clear goals at Estadio Azul seems like a tall order for Pumas, though. The last team to do that was Santos in February, and Cruz Azul were a much different team in the Bicentenario than they are right now. Some have completely written off Pumas, but hopefully Cruz Azul aren’t among those people. An early goal by Pumas sure would make this into a tasty match.

Club America vs. San Luis

Saturday, 8 pm ET. TV: Telefutura

This will certainly be the most interesting of the ties after a 0-0 draw in San Luis. The hosts played well, but Memo Ochoa was on his game. A win at Estadio Azteca seems like a very difficult task. The Bicentenario was a very bad tournament for San Luis in general, but it should be noted that they lost their last trip to Azteca 5-1. They also lost to America at home in the regular season. The odds are stacked against San Luis.

Also stacked against San Luis is the awful finishing of America’s strikers. 90% of you just gave your computer monitor a really confused look. The reason that’s a problem for San Luis is that it can only continue for so long. America’s strikers aren’t finishing poorly because they’re bad players, they’re finishing poorly because weird stuff happens sometimes. Players like Vicente Vuoso don’t usually have three consecutive poor games.

Monterrey vs. Pachuca

Sunday, 5 pm ET. TV: Telemundo

A draw probably wasn’t a good enough result for Pachuca at home, especially with a bunch of first choice players returning to the Monterrey lineup on Sunday. Humberto Suazo and Walter Ayovi will probably start after beginning Thursday’s match on the bench after going away on international duty, and three more players will return from suspensions. A draw at home against Monterrey would usually be considered a solid result, but not when five of their first choice players were absent from the starting lineup. Pachuca have dug themselves a massive hole.

Even though Pachuca got a draw while Pumas lost in the first leg, I feel like Pachuca is significantly more screwed. I know Pachuca upset Monterrey in the Bicentenario, but this is a different story. Pachuca won the first leg and Monterrey didn’t have Humberto Suazo. If Pachuca win, it will be an incredible upset.

Santos Laguna vs. Jaguares de Chiapas

Sunday, 7 pm ET. TV: Telefutura

Santos have never been the most consistent team around, but they probably have the highest ceiling. Their 7-1 thrashing of Morelia in the last Liguilla without Cristian Benitez was nuts and they way they started this season was even more nuts. They play great football most of the time, and they played pretty attractive football on Thursday. The game ended in a draw, though, leaving the door open a crack for Jaguares.

In front of the home crowd at Estadio Corona with Chucho Bentiez a little more rested, Santos might go into eff you mode yet again. They might not, though, and Jaguares are no slouches. The side from Chiapas lost 1-0 in their visit to Estadio Corona this season, but it was a very good match. Jaguares really contained Santos and could have scored if not for a great performance from Oswaldo Sanchez. This was coming off the back of three straight massive wins for Santos where they really looked like world beaters. Santos are favorites, but Jaguares aren’t out of it. They have a few guys who are capable of scoring great goals, even if the team is badly outplayed.

Predictions

Cruz Azul 2, Pumas 2

Club America 1, San Luis 1

Monterrey 2, Pachuca 1

Santos Laguna 3, Jaguares 2