Mexican Primera, 2011 Clausura Preview: The Liguilla Contenders, Part Two

Yesterday, we took a look at four of the teams that should contend for a Liguilla place, but probably not for the title. There are five more teams that I think belong in that category, and they will get addressed today. Let’s just dive right into it.

Pumas de la UNAM

2010 Apertura Finish: 8th

On a scale of one to ten, their fans will be this furious if they miss Liguilla: 8

Pumas, like Chivas, have not brought in any reinforcements for the 2011 Clausura and have instead decided to stick with what they have and hope some youth products can step up. It’s not an awful strategy, since Pumas definitely underachieved for most of the last tournament, despite sneaking into Liguilla (and upsetting Cruz Azul once they got there). Their usually stout defense allowed 24 goals, which is 14 more than the same unit allowed in the previous season. A defense that solid seems unlikely, but they should certainly allow less than 24 goals this time around.

It looked like they were going to lose holding midfielder Leandro Augusto to their rivals Tigres this offseason, but it now appears that Tigres were scared off by their asking price and that Augusto will play for Pumas once again in the Clausura. If this sounds like I’m not being firm, that’s because I’m not. I’ve actually seen lots of conflicting information on this, but if we haven’t heard anything concrete on a transfer on the Thursday before the first game of the season, it seems reasonable to assume that Augusto will stay put.

Unfortunately, it seems like the glory days are over for 37 year old forward Francisco “Paco” Palencia, but the trio of Dante Lopez, Juan Cacho, and Martin Bravo played well for most of last year. Pumas will need all three of those guys to have good seasons to get back into Liguilla this tournament.

Toluca

2010 Apertura Finish: 11th

Toluca’s manager that lead them to a championship in the 2010 Bicentenario, Jose Manuel “Chepo” de la Torre, as well as their leading scorer, Hector Mancilla, have departed the team. Chepo is now the Mexican national team’s manager, while Mancilla was purchased by the offseason’s big spenders, Tigres. Additionally, their captain, Zinha, is now 35 years old. Tigres are a team in transition, to say the least.

Still, they have signed a couple of strikers in an attempt to replace Mancilla, and they might do well. Their new 22 year old striker, Jaime Ayovi, has featured for the Ecuadorian national team already and he had a very good scoring record at Emelec. Colombian attacking midfielder Luis Carlos Arias is less of a known quantity, but there are strong indications that he can help them this season.

I’m trying to be positive with those signings, but it’s hard to believe that Toluca are not a team in decline. They’re a decent side that aren’t that far removed from a championship, but they’re hardly one of the top eight teams in Mexico right now. Down that Geritol, Zinha. The Red Devils need you.

Pachuca

2010 Apertura finish: 7th

On a scale of one to ten, their fans will be this furious if they miss Liguilla: 7.5

Pachuca are a decent team that should compete for Liguilla, but there’s no getting around it: They’re a worse team than they were last tournament. It’s essentially the same time, minus Damian Manso and Dario Cvitanich, plus Yulian Anchico. While the Colombian international midfielder might be able to contribute right away, it seems unlikely that he’ll match Manso’s contribution right away.

No one has been brought in to replace Cvitanich, whose contribution will need to be replaced from within. The good news is that both Herculez Gomez and Franco Arizala had pretty disappointing seasons where their contributions were below their capabilities. It seems reasonable to expect more goals out of both of those players this season. Arizala was an expensive signing for Pachuca who disappointed for most of the last tournament, but hopefully his performance in Liguilla against Monterrey was a sign of things to come.

The biggest question surrounding Pachuca, despite how big the departures of Cvitanich and Manso are, is their defense. They conceded an incredible 28 goals last season and haven’t done anything to address the problem. Unlike Pumas, they don’t have an established unit who have proven themselves to be an iron curtain in the past, so Pablo Marini and the board are basically just praying something different happens.

San Luis

2010 Apertura Finish: 5th

On a scale of one to ten, their fans will be this furious if they miss Liguilla: 6

San Luis are a decent side, but it’s fair to say that they overachieved a bit in the 2010 Apertura, especially after their dismal Bicentenario campaign. The good news, however, is that they didn’t attain success purely because someone like Miguel Sabah or Johan Fano went on a ridiculous scoring run. Their top scorer, Michael Arroyo, scored five goals. He’s 23 years old and it was his first year with the team, so it’s not unreasonable to expect similar or better production out of him.

After Arroyo, scoring was a team effort for San Luis. Six other players scored more than one goal for them. Their defense was a solid team effort as well, as they allowed 19 goals, a solid defensive record. This is all well and good, but this is really a team devoid of stars. It’s possible that’s a good thing, but it’s also possible that San Luis is playing well above their talent level.

Young forward Juan Cuevas might help them out, but his scoring record is nothing to write home about. Juan Cavallo isn’t that well known of a player, but his scoring record is impressive enough and he might be able to add to the team as well. New signing Carlos Hurtado isn’t expected to contribute much, and Juan de la Barrera will not be able to play after getting injured in a car accident. It was a pretty quiet transfer window for San Luis with some budget signings.

San Luis can make Liguilla again, but finishing 5th again seems highly unlikely. Having to play in Copa Libertadores could slow them down quite a bit as well.

Club America

2010 Apertura Finish: 4th

On a scale of one to ten, their fans will be this furious if they miss Liguilla: 11

America have made no major signings in the offseason, but unlike Chivas and Toluca, they didn’t really need to. They did well to finish in fourth and best San Luis, among other teams, despite not playing their best football at times. They’re counting on continuity and improvement from their young players to drive them forward in this tournament, and based on what they did in the Apertura, that seems perfectly reasonable.

The one new player America did sign is Nicolas Olivera, a Uruguayan attacking midfielder who played previously for Puebla. Supposedly, he’s not a popular signing among the fans, but he should add some good depth to the America side.

Club America was good in the last tournament, and they should remain good this tournament. Vicente Vuoso, Daniel Montenegro, Daniel Palacios, and Vicente Sanchez should all be at least as good as they were last tournament. There’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to play well and keep America in a Liguilla position.

Predictions

Disclaimer: Once again, I have not gone through match by match. I apologize if I come up with a point total for all 18 teams that is impossible, but it should be pretty close to something that works out mathematically. Also, I have four teams in the “title contenders” section of this preview and I’m predicting that all of them make Liguilla.

Puebla: 20 points

Chivas: 24 points

Jaguares: 22 points

Morelia: 19 points

Pumas: 25 points

Toluca: 21 points

San Luis: 24 points

Pachuca: 24 points

America: 28 points

Liguilla

Out: Morelia, Puebla, Toluca, Jaguares, Pachuca (on goal differential)

8th place: Chivas

7th place: San Luis

6th place: Pumas

5th place (and Group Two winners): America