Rio Ferdinand will be the most important absence from Tuesday's Chelsea-Manchester United match, though Red Devils supporters have become accustomed to missing England's captain. The 32-year-old defender's made only 20 appearances this season, 15 in the English Premier League (United have played 40 all-competition matches). This is coming off a season where Ferdinand appeared in only 13 of 38 league matches.
Chelsea FC Vs. Manchester United: By The Numbers, How Red Devils Have Faired With, Without Rio Ferdinand
Ferdinand's calf injury means Chris Smalling will start to the right of Nemanja Vidic, the 21-year-old having seemingly passed Jonny Evans on Alex Ferguson's depth chart. That may not be a fair assumption, as Evans is also not available for this match, nursing an ankle problem. However, of late, Smalling has been more impressive that Evans. He has started each of the last three matches, all shutouts for United (albeit against Crawley Town, Olympique de Marseille and Wigan Athletic).
Despite Smalling’s impressive performances, no Red Devils supporters will be happy to see a squad without Ferdinand, a trepidation bore out by the numbers.
Without Or Without Rio
That Manchester United has played exactly 20 matches with Rio Ferdinand, 20 without, begs such comparisons. Granted, strength of competition is not considered, nor did we take the time to see if the differences in these means is significant, but it's still fun to look at.
The goals allowed numbers align themselves with the general conception that United is a much better team with Rio Ferdinand. The goals scored numbers are interesting, but could be explained by a higher level of competition. Regardless, it's hard to find a causal relationship between Ferdinand played and Wayne Rooney, Dimitar Berbatov and Nani being less potent.
The points, however, are interesting. Like me, others may be surprised to see that United has been worse on a points-per-match basis with Rio in the team. Again, that may speak more to level of competition.
| with Rio | w/o Rio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Allowed, Total | 13 | 22 |
| Goals Allowed, Average | 0.65 | 1.1 |
| Goals Scored, Total | 36 | 44 |
| Goals Scored, Average | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Points, Total | 36 | 44 |
| Points, Average | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Goals Allowed
In matches in which Ferdinand has appeared this season, United is allowed 59 percent fewer goals, seeing their average conceded fall from 1.10 goals per match to 0.65. That total’s generally be accumulated against superior competition, as even when he’s healthy, Ferdinand is sometimes rested against particularly weak opponents. For example, Ferdinand played in only one of United’s three Carling Cup matches, starting against Scunthorpe United as part of his recuperation from this summer’s knee injury.
Goals Scored
Hinting at the elevated level of competition, United’s goals per match have gone down when Ferdinand play. United has had only three matches where they scored more than two goals while Rio played. Overall, the team averages 1.8 goals per match when Ferdinand is in the team. That number increases by 22 percent when he’s out, climbing to 2.2 goals per match.
Points
Strangely, and possibly another reflection of the quality of competition, Manchester United are accumulated fewer points per match when Rio plays. While the Red Devils are undefeated in 2010-11 with their star defender, they’re only averaging 1.8 points per match, thanks in large part to eight draws in 20 games. Though they have lost twice when Ferdinand’s been out, Manchester United has won 14 times, giving them 2.2 points per match.
(And oddly, when Rio’s out, United’s scored 36 goals and accrued 36 points. When he plays, 44 goals and 44 points)
Overall, Manchester United is 26-12-2 on the season. They’ve scored 80 goals while allowing 35.
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