Chelsea FC Vs. Manchester United: Three Ways Alex Ferguson Could Deploy His Team

Earlier today, Kevin McCauley walked us through Chelsea’s possible formations for today’s match with Manchester United. As we noted last night, part of the difficulty of previewing today’s match is having little idea how the Blues and United will set-up. While Chelsea has used three different formations over the last month, Alex Ferguson is constantly changing his approach, tailoring his set-up for each match. Predicting what he’ll do today mean jumping into his head and translating his thoughts out of that rough Scottish. I don’t have that tool in my arsenal.

So instead of trying to predict where Ferguson will go, let’s just lay-out the options. Let’s start our survey by looking back to last season, considering it Ferguson’s default disposition.

While United did fail to get a point against Chelsea in 2009-10, they performed reasonably well - a couple of near-coin flip matches against the eventual league champions. With some noting “breaks” Chelsea got near the end of those matches, Ferguson may elect to take his chances with a similar set-up, should he believe United is more likely to win a match that plays out similarly.

If that’s the case, we could see a look very similar to last Wednesday’s in Marseille. Then, Wayne Rooney was forced out to left wing because of Ryan Giggs’s absence. With Park Ji-Sung and Antonio Valencia also out, Ferguson had to choose between displacing Rooney or starting Gabriel Obertan, provided he was set on going 4-5-1. He went with the better player, even if that meant playing him farther from goal.

If Giggs’s fitness demands the same today, Dimitar Berbatov will start up top. Nani will be on the right, and the midfield should be Paul Scholes, Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick.

At the back, Edwin van der Sar will be in goal. Patrice Evra will start on the left, with a pairing of Nemanja Vidic and Chris Smalling in the middle. John O’Shea is likely to start on the right, though we could see Rafael da Silva, whose playing time has seen a significant increase this season. If da Silva is chosen, it will be his first league start against Chelsea.

With the issues at the back remaining the same regardless of formation, we move on to a more ambitious option:

The last time Manchester United defeated Chelsea (January 2009), Ferguson chose Berbatov, Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo. It was a deployment that was 4-4-2 by the book, 4-3-3 in practice. Today, United could do the same, starting Nani in what was Ronaldo’s roll, filling out midfield with three of Fletcher, Giggs, Scholes and Carrick.

However, it’s worth noting how truly long ago that was. Luiz Felipe Scolari was Chelsea’s manager. The Blues played 4-5-1 that day, with Joe Cole and Deco in the wide positions. In addition, the match was at Old Trafford. Manchester United hasn’t won at Stamford Bridge since 2002, pre-José Mourinho.

This would be a very ambitious approach, but against a wounded Chelsea, it might work, particularly given some of the formations Ancelotti’s likely to deploy. But what’s more likely: Ferguson going to West London and being content to get a point? Or, him going for it?

United can play any of these three options while starting the exact same personnel. Giggs’s ability to play wide as well as centrally (as well as Rooney’s flexibility between central forward and wing) mean there are very few selections Ferguson can made which will reveal his approach.

Take the 4-3-3 we just alluded to. With the exact same personnel, United becomes a 4-4-2 depending on Nani’s responsibilities. If Nani’s playing deeper, helping John O’Shea with the likes of Ashley Cole and (potentially) Florent Malouda), the deployment will seem like four midfielders. If he’s allowed to let Cole run while United relies on the rangy Darren Fletcher for support (and Ryan Giggs augmenting the central midfield), Nani’s function will mimic a winger in a 4-3-3 variant.

While the 4-4-2 seems like a nice middle ground between a five or three midfielder approach, it may be the worst approach, particularly if Chelsea goes 4-3-1-2. The two other options give United a third midfielder in the middle. Where Nicolas Anelka would play an attacking midfielder/withdrawn striker in the 4-3-1-2, countering with a 4-4-2 would put United at a significant numerical disadvantage, employing two wide midfielders against a formation that deepmphasizes width.

But this is where the flexibility of United’s personnel may help. If they start in a 4-4-2, they could switch on the fly. The fact that Ferguson has no set formation means quick changes in set-up won’t put players in unfamiliar roles. If any of Ferguson’s choices aren’t working, we could see a shift at halftime, if not sooner.

Because predicting what Alex Ferguson will do is such a great idea.