Copa Libertadores 2012, Matchday 9 Preview: Two Groups Conclude Play This Week

Copa Libertadores is down to its last couple rounds of play, meaning that every game, everywhere is meaningful and has some kind of implications for knockout stage qualification. The two teams on top of Group 3 play on Tuesday, while already eliminated Peñarol can play Group 8 Spoiler. Wednesday has the round’s best matches, while two groups wrap up on Thursday.

Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. ET

Velez Sarsfield is in control of Group 7, with these two teams among the three still jockeying for places. If Defensor wins, both Deportivo Quito and Chivas Guadalajara will be eliminated. They would keep themselves in good position with a draw, but could drop from second to fourth place if they lose away in Ecuador. Deportivo Quito are in horrible form domestically, while Defensor beat them at home comfortably, so it would be surprising to see Defensor drop all three points.

Tuesday, 7:45 p.m. ET

Junior have not been eliminated yet, but it’s likely a contest between these two teams and Universidad Catolica for the two knockout stage spots in Group 3. Both sit on seven points, while UC sit on six. Junior and UC have already played in Round 5, and Bolivar and UC play in the final round. Though Bolivar have performed well to this point, they lost at home to Union Española, and it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to get a positive result out of this one.

Tuesday, 7:45 p.m. ET

Zamora sit on just one point, but they haven’t been eliminated yet. If they win on Tuesday, then Boca Juniors lose on Wednesday, they will enter the final round with a chance to go through. Even though they’re at home and they need a win, Zamora will probably try to sit back and catch their opponents on the counter. Arsenal can draw and stay alive, but they need a win (and some help) to realistically have a chance going into the final day. Based on their 3-0 win over Zamora at home and Zamora’s recent performances, they’ll probably get it.

Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET

Peñarol, a historically huge club, made a triumphant return to Copa Libertadores last season with a great run to the final of the competition, but things have not gone smoothly this year. They’re already out of Copa Libertadores and they’ve failed to win their last two matches domestically after a solid start in Uruguay. They could opt to rest players in a match that means nothing to them, but they could also opt to play spoiler. Atletico Nacional will progress to the knockout stages with anything but a loss. If they do lose, Godoy Cruz’s slim hopes for progression to the next round stay alive.

Wednesday, 6:45 p.m. ET

This could be a massive and very competitive match, or it could be irrelevant. Chivas will be eliminated if Defensor Sporting win on Tuesday, but they will have a chance to take over second place in Group 7 if they don’t. They’re coming off of a gutting loss to rivals Club America at the weekend, but they’ll be putting their best foot forward against Velez if they’re still alive when the game rolls around. They’re almost out of playoff contention in the Mexican Primera, and dropped points by Defensor will keep their season from ending before this game starts.

Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET

This game also may or may not mean anything, based on Tuesday’s results. If Arsenal fail to win, Boca will feel comfortable with their position, though no result in that match mathematically puts them through. Fluminense continue to play mixed first-second teams in the Campeonato Carioca. They won on the weekend, but they’re currently behind Vasco da Gama and Bangu, so they should probably cut that out. Since they’re already through in Copa, they might play a second team, which would be to Boca’s obvious benefit.

Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET

With anything but a win, Nacional will be eliminated from the competition. They sit on four points, while Cruz Azul and Corinthians both sit on eight points. If Nacional get that win, Corinthians’ supporters will probably break things and vandalize cars. For some odd reason, even though they were at home and they’re secure in their table position, Corinthians played mostly first choice players in the Paulista over the weekend.

Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Lanus are struggling mightily in the Argentine Primera at the moment, but they’re already secure in their position in Copa Libertadores. They have secured progression to the next round. Flamengo, meanwhile, sit bottom of Group 2 and they will find themselves eliminated from the competition if they fail to win. If they do win, they’re only going through if Emelec and Olimpia draw. They’re coming off an away win against Vasco da Gama in the Carioca, but Ronaldinho and Vagner Love both went 90 minutes in that match. Lanus rested some key players on the weekend while subbing out a couple of others before the 60 minute mark, so they should have the fresher legs.

Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Both teams are guaranteed to progress from Group 2 with a win in this match, while Emelec will be eliminated with a draw. Olimpia will go through with a draw if Flamengo fail to defeat Lanus. The first time these two teams met in Ecuador, Emelec were given a penalty in the second half that they converted, and they went on to a 1-0 win. Emelec have lost both of their road games in this competition and Olimpia have won both of their home games, so the Paraguayans are the favorites.

Thursday, 8:50 p.m. ET

Included together because Group 5’s games are only for positioning. Both Vasco and Libertad have qualified for the next round, and both sit on 10 points. The winner of the group will be in the middle of the group winners as far as seeding goes, while the second placed team is likely to get a No. 9 or 10 seed for the second round. Even though the two leading groups are away, they’re both favored to win.