There are two seasons: the regular season and the postseason. And once the postseason starts, every participating team is on even footing, with a fair shot at winning the title.
The MLS playoffs aren’t the crapshoot they used to be
It used to be that the MLS Cup playoffs were wide open and everyone had a shot. That’s not true anymore.
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Or something like that.
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The idea that the playoffs are a crapshoot, with every team having a chance to win the title, has been bandied around plenty, especially in Major League Soccer. The 2010 MLS Cup final, which saw a rough-and-tumble but not-that-good Colorado Rapids side beat a surprising FC Dallas team, was looked at as the height of parity. Truly anyone could win the title, especially once you got to the playoffs. But while that may or may not have been true four years ago, it certainly isn't now.
MLS is a crapshoot in April, not November. Come the playoffs, the contenders do stand tall, even in this league of parity.
The year after the Rapids won the Cup, the Supporters' Shield-winning Galaxy and the East's No. 2 seed, the Houston Dynamo, competed for the trophy. It was clear that they were two of the best teams in MLS, if not the top two when the season closed.
The Galaxy and Dynamo met again the following year, but did so after mediocre regular seasons. Still, no one questioned their credentials, having shown their potential at various points in the season. They simply did not prioritize topping the league, choosing to rest older, injured squads ahead of the postseason. When the playoffs came around, LA and Houston were again touted as favorites, and proved it by getting to the final.
Again last year, the final brought together two favorites. It wasn't the Galaxy or Sounders, but Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake. Both were No. 2 seeds, each finishing a point off first and each looking like one of the league's best teams all year.
Of course, upsets can still happen in the MLS playoffs, but for the underdogs, making the final requires pulling two upsets over 360 minutes. That task has been made more difficult over the past few years, with the top teams able to separate themselves from the pack. We may not know who those top teams are when the season starts, but by the time the playoffs get underway, the gap between the elite and the lower playoff teams is bigger than the gap between the lower playoff teams and the non-playoff teams.
This time around, the Galaxy and Sounders are the class of MLS, making them, obviously, the class of the Western Conference. That’s not a shot at the rest of the West, but respect for how good the two teams have been. They are among the best the league has ever seen, with the Sounders collecting 64 points in a brutal league and the Galaxy amassing the best goal differential MLS has seen since 1998 with plus-32 goals. Toss in Bruce Arena and Sigi Schmid, two managers who have won six MLS Cups between them, as well as star power and depth on both sides, and they clearly stand out above the rest.
If a Western Conference team other than the Galaxy or Sounders make the final, it will be the biggest surprise since the Rapids won the MLS Cup. Possibly even bigger. There is nothing -- from regular season performance to roster evaluation to form to managers to intangibles to history -- to indicate that one of them will not be hosting the league’s championship match on Dec. 7.
The Eastern Conference may not have teams that are quite as dominant, but that doesn't mean everyone are equal favorites. D.C. United completed the biggest turnaround in MLS history to claim the top seed, backed by the likely Goalkeeper of the Year in Bill Hamid and the best defense in the league. Manager Ben Olsen has coached a conference final before and the squad contains a wonderful blend of experience and youth. Most impressively, they have been so good this season despite an underwhelming year from Eddie Johnson, who could make them even better if he finds his form in November.
Joining D.C. atop the East table are the New England Revolution. They were a young and promising team that grew up throughout the season, led by MVP candidate Lee Nguyen, then took a major leap by adding Jermaine Jones, perhaps the most impactful mid-season signing in MLS history. Since then, they are 7-1-1 and are as hot as any team in the league heading into the playoffs.
Does D.C. and New England's dominance mean that Federico Higuain of the Columbus Crew can't continue to shepherd along Will Trapp and Co. to the final? Of course not. And Sporting could find their form of last year, just like Thierry Henry and Bradley Wright-Phillips could score the New York Red Bulls through the East. RSL might even put the ghost of Jason Kreis behind them, or Oscar Pareja's magic at FC Dallas could be proven real. There can be surprises, even all the way to the final, but you wouldn't be wise to bet on it.
There was a time when the MLS playoffs were nothing but a crapshoot. But that was a time when the best in MLS weren’t that good. Now they are, from the managers, to the stars, to the bit players and even down to the homegrowns. This is a new MLS, where there are bonafide favorites. The 2010 Rapids are a thing of the past. Every team is not starting with a clean slate and it’s not just a matter of who is hot.
The last eight months proved some teams are better than others, and the playoffs will crown one of them.
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