Manchester United and Arsenal sit below the top four, already out of the title race, resigned to a fight for Champions League places. Either would be seriously damaged by a loss in their big Saturday clash, but the Gunners might need to avoid a loss even more than Louis van Gaal’s side.
Manchester United can overcome a loss on Saturday. Can Arsenal?
Saturday’s match is huge for both Manchester United and Arsenal, but the Gunners need to avoid disaster more.
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If you believe that Southampton aren't as good as their record -- they play Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United consecutively after this weekend, so we'll have no reason to argue about it shortly -- United and Arsenal probably the third- and fourth-best teams in the Premier League. It's looking very possible that they can both limp their way into Champions League.
But in a season where their main rivals for those places have been so disappointing, the frustration and impatience that some of their fans are exhibiting is understandable. Arsenal and United shouldn't just be favorites for third and fourth, they should have those spots locked up by now. Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton have been so poor in the league that the gap between them and the two sides that meet on this weekend should be virtually insurmountable.
Instead, all three of those teams are just three points behind Arsenal and two behind United, who have been almost as bad, even if their table positions are a bit less nauseating for their supporters. And if either team loses on Saturday, their fans are going to start panicking, especially if one, two or all of the aforementioned trailing top four contenders looks convincing in a win this week.
Injury Issues
For United, that panic would be unjustified. They have a new manager, new players who haven’t quite settled in, no Champions League to worry about and an easy schedule ahead. But Arsenal? They have the same manager, playing the same style of football and tricky games ahead. And their newest starter? Well, he’s the one grabbing results for them, almost single-handedly.
The Gunners are in a different place. They have to face some tricky fixtures right away, and might end up going into a tailspin if they lose. Immediately after this match, they take on Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League in a game they must win to have a chance to top their group. In the league, they go away to West Bromwich Albion, host Southampton, then go away to Stoke. It's not a murderer's row of league fixtures, but it's certainly not easy, especially after a big Champions League game.
Arsenal get to back their way into fourth place every year, but they’re playing with fire at the moment, and it could cost them if their rivals stop screwing up. What if a loss to United and a need to play their stars again against Dortmund leads to dropped points at the Hawthorns? Then more against Southampton, and at the Britannia? If that frightening scenario comes coupled with good runs of form for their North London rivals and the Merseyside teams, they might head into the crowded holidays mid-table, trailing the teams they should have killed off by now.
For United, a loss leads to a different story, and not because they're a better team than Arsenal. They get the middle of the week off before hosting Hull City -- statistically the biggest overachievers in the league, currently coming back to earth -- then Stoke City, who even a hobbled United will be favored to beat at home. Things heat up after that with matches against Southampton and Liverpool, but they'll have a couple of very winnable home games after this Arsenal test to find their feet again.
A bad result will be tough for either United or Arsenal to take in a tight race for top four, but United have a bit more margin for error. Those two home games against average opposition -- and the rest that comes before them -- give them a chance to pick up the pieces from a bad result and get themselves together before their big Southampton test. Arsenal won’t have that benefit.
Beat United at home and all will be right in Arsene Wenger’s world. But if they lose, their schedule makes the possibility of a downward spiral very realistic.
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