The qualifying stage has been set for teams to begin their journey to the final tournament in France. The final tournament will be expanded to 24 teams but the qualifying format remains the same. Like the previous Euros, it contains nine groups, eight of six teams and one with five. The winners, runners-up, and best third-place team will qualify automatically while the remaining eight third place finishers will be drawn into play-offs. The expanded tournament will give middle-of-the-road countries a chance to qualify, many of them for the first time.
Predicting Euro 2016 qualifying
The nine qualifying groups for UEFA Euro 2016 have been drawn. Here’s who might make it to France.
Xavier Laine
Group A: Netherlands, Czech Republic, Turkey, Latvia, Iceland, Kazakhstan
It would be hard to imagine the Netherlands and the Czech Republic not dominating this group. But the third place spot will likely be a three way race between Turkey, Latvia, and Iceland. Turkey, traditionally a touted team to qualify underperformed in the qualifiers for the 2014 World Cup while Iceland exceeded expectations to reach the playoffs. Latvia were surprise qualifiers for Euro 2004 and could possibly do it again with a decent team.
Prediction: Netherlands and the Czech Republic qualify while Iceland surprises again to take third
Group B: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Israel, Wales, Cyprus, Andorra
Bosnia’s strong performance in the 2014 qualifiers was rewarded with a top position in the draw for 2016, and they would be fully expected to top this group. Right behind them would be Belgium, who have their strongest team since the 1980s. Third place would likely go to Israel, who underperformed in recent qualifying rounds but given the weakness of Wales, and Cyprus, the east Mediterranean coastal side is not going to be seriously challenged.
Prediction: Bosnia and Belgium take the top two spots while Israel takes third
The current world and European champions will undoubtedly top the group, but what makes this group interesting is the openness for the second and third spots. Ukraine and Slovakia are the favorites but Belarus could be a formidable opponent given their good performances in the Euro 2012 qualifiers.
Prediction: Spain tops the group with a perfect record while Ukraine takes second. Slovakia fends off Belarus for third place
Group D: Germany, Republic of Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Georgia, Gibraltar.
This group is another wide open race for the number two and three spots. While Germany are likely to top this group with no issues, Ireland, Poland, and Scotland are likely to fight for the other automatic spot. All three countries failed to qualify for the 2014 World Cup but given the relative even strength of the three teams this particular race is hard to predict. Of the three, Poland seem to be on a resurgence after their early Euro 2012 elimination and failure to qualify for Brazil 2014.
Prediction: Germany maintains control of the group while Poland fends off a challenge from Ireland and Scotland. Third place turns into a celtic battle, which Scotland prevails
Group E: England, Switzerland, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, San Marino
England and Switzerland are the heavy favorites to take the top two spots in the group. The third spot could potentially be a race between Slovenia, Estonia, and Lithuania but given Slovenia's tendency to create surprises in qualifying tournaments it seems likely most of the money is on the Balkan side to finish just below England and Switzerland.
Prediction: England and Switzerland take the top two spots while Slovenia take third
Group F: Greece, Hungary, Romania, Finland, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands
The 2004 champions are likely to have an easy ride to France given the strength disparity between them and the rest of the group. Hungary, Romania, Finland and Northern Ireland will engage in a four way race for the second and third spots. Hungary has been on the ascent in recent years while Romania lost to Greece in the play-off en route to Brazil. Northern Ireland defeated Russia and held Portugal during the 2014 qualifiers while Finland drew with Spain.
Prediction: Greece take the top spot while Romania and Hungary emerge to take second and third
Group G: Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova, Liechtenstein
This group like a few of the others, have a clear top three and a clear bottom three. Russia, Sweden and Austria are likely to take the top three spots which might include a mini battle for second place between Sweden and Austria. Montenegro may put up a challenge for the third spot based their strong performance in the Euro 2012 and 2014 World Cup qualifiers but that may be a long shot.
Prediction: Russia, Sweden, and Austria take the top three spots
Italy and Croatia are the heavy favorites to top this group but third place may be a battle between Norway and Bulgaria. Norway were seeded for the 2014 qualifiers but did not perform to that level while during the same preliminary round Bulgaria were close to taking second place before collapsing towards the end. The progression and elimination of one of these teams may come down to a razor thin goal differential.
Prediction: Italy and Croatia grab the top two spots while Bulgaria overcome Norway to take third
Portugal and Denmark will be meeting for the third qualification round after facing each other enroute to South Africa 2010 and Euro 2012. The group however is not limited to those two sides. Serbia and Armenia have teams capable to performing upsets. Serbia slowed Croatia's progress to Brazil while Armenia overcame Denmark 4-0 in Copenhagen. Albania could also end up in the mix after having strong results in the their last three qualification tournaments. For the first time, hosts France will play a series of friendly matches in this group, presumably to stay in shape.
Predication: Portugal and Denmark wind up in first and second place while Serbia takes third after fending off Armenia and Albania
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