The last decade has been fairly kind to Schalke 04, who have become fixtures in this stage of the Champions League. They even made the semifinals once, and they’re sitting fourth in the Bundesliga at the moment. Die Königsblauen are by no stretch of the imagination a small side, but this is still just about the most lopsided Round of 16 draw that the ping pong balls could have possibly produced. They’re going to have a lot of trouble with Real Madrid (2:45 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1).
Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid preview, Champions League 2015: A blowout likely awaits
Poor Schalke. They might have had a chance with a better draw, but they’ll struggle with Real Madrid.
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Los Merengues, the reigning champions, were thrown into a difficult Champions League group with FC Basel and Liverpool, then navigated it easily. Schalke, meanwhile, struggled with Sporting Lisbon and Maribor (and more understandably, Chelsea), en route to a somewhat lucky second-place finish. They conceded 14 goals over six games, finishing with a minus-5 goal differential. This was accomplished with a seasoned professional in goal, which they won’t have on Wednesday.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side should win this tie, and win it pretty big. But Roberto Di Matteo’s come in and changed Schalke’s tactics pretty drastically since the group stage, while Madrid’s midfield is thin. If you’re looking for any reason to hope this tie can be competitive, that’s about the only one.
Team news
It's been a rough season for Schalke on the injury front, and they won't have a full squad of players available for this match. Top two goalkeepers Ralf Fährmann and Fabian Giefer are out, meaning B-team goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther will play. Also missing out are Julian Draxler, Jefferson Farfan, Leon Gortetzka, Sead Kolasinac and Chinedu Obasi. Yikes.
Real Madrid named a 20-man squad ahead of this match, so there's no mystery about fitness for anyone. Sami Khedira, Fabio Coentrao, Luka Modric, Sergio Ramos and James Rodriguez are the first team players that miss out for Los Mernegues. Marcelo and Pepe have recently recovered from injuries and will be available.
Projected lineups (left to right)
Schalke 04 (3-5-2): Timon Wellenreuther; Matija Nastasic, Joel Matip, Benedikt Höwedes; Christian Fuchs, Max Meyer, Jan Kirchhoff, Marco Höger, Astuto Uchida; Maxim Choupo-Moting, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Iker Casillas; Marcelo, Pepe, Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal; Isco, Toni Kroos, Asier Illaramendi; Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Gareth Bale
With Madrid's injury woes in midfield, it's not entirely clear how the team will line up. Illaramendi got the nod over the weekend in the spot that would normally be occupied by Modric or Khedira, though Lucas Silva could get a surprise Champions League debut there. Schalke's biggest selection concerns are about how defensive Di Matteo wants to be. Huntelaar has sat out with a suspension in recent league matches, leading Di Matteo to go with a 3-5-1-1 formation that features Kevin-Prince Boateng behind Choupo-Moting. He could do it again, or put Prince in for one of the midfielders, or drop him altogether.
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Key Matchups
Benedikt Höwedes vs. Cristiano Ronaldo - Clearly this won't be a man-marking situation, but as Schalke's right-sided central defender, Höwedes is the man who will see the most of Ronaldo. The World Cup winner is also the best defender that Schalke has, so they'll be in quite a bit of trouble if he's not up to his normal standard. Schalke's defense is usually as good as their captain's play.
Raphael Varane’s brain vs. Schalke’s strikers - Physically, Raphael Varane might be the best defender in the world. His combination of size, strength, leaping ability and pace is virtually unparalleled. He’s improved the mental side of his game quite a bit in the last couple of years, but he still plays like a 21-year-old on occasion. He can make up for it sometimes, but Huntelaar and Choupo-Moting are such good finishers that he’s likely to be punished if he switches off.
Jan Kirchhoff vs. the world - There will be a lot of Madrid attackers buzzing around all over the place, and the player most likely to see a lot of all of them is Kirchhoff, Schalke’s central holding midfielder. He’ll need to win tackles and intercept passes on a regular basis to give his team a chance at the upset. Good position won’t be enough -- he’s going to be tested even if he’s in the right spot, and he’s going to have to win the ball regularly.
Prediction
Well, at least Schalke are at home. That should count for something. It’ll also help them that Madrid are missing so many players in midfield, as well as Sergio Ramos. But they’ll probably be outclassed, and we’ll be thinking about Madrid’s viability as a contender for their 11th title before long. Let’s give Schalke a consolation goal? 4-1, Madrid.
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