The first leg of this tie went mostly as expected. Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain both set up with mostly defensive, but not entirely negative teams. PSG were able to avoid losing at home to keep the tie alive, but the Blues grabbed an away goal, giving themselves a slight advantage headed back to Stamford Bridge. On Wednesday, we should see a lot more of the same.
Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain preview, 2015 Champions League: Expect conservative teams
Laurent Blanc and Jose Mourinho are probably going to do a lot more of the same in the second leg of their tie.
PSG have more of an incentive to commit numbers forward and push for a goal than Chelsea, but since they only need one goal, they’re unlikely to come out guns blazing from the start. A 1-0 win is probably more realistic than a 3-2 one, so don’t expect the visitors to start taking risks until they concede, or get to around the hour mark without having scored.
Both teams will probably come into this game with memories of last season, when PSG appeared to be in position to upset Chelsea and advance to the semifinals. Instead, Jose Mourinho threw on some strikers, started pumping balls into the box and found a winner. If he finds himself in need of big forwards, Mourinho has Didier Drogba and Loic Remy to turn to in an attempt to repeat that performance. They could become key players in the event PSG manages to snag a surprise first goal.
Team News
The only player that Chelsea will be missing for sure is John Obi Mikel. Normally that wouldn't be much of a problem, but he's a backup to Nemanja Matic, who's recovering from an ankle injury. However, Jose Mourinho said last week that he expects Matic to play in this game.
PSG's injury issues are a bit more serious. Serge Aurier and Lucas Moura miss out for sure, while Yohan Cabaye is also a doubt with a thigh injury. Third-string goalkeeper Mory Diaw is unavailable as well.
Projected Lineups (left to right)
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, John Terry, Gary Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic; Nemanja Matic, Ramires; Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas, Willian; Diego Costa
Paris Saint-Germain (4-3-3): Salvatore Sirigu; Maxwell, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Gregory van der Wiel; David Luiz, Blaise Matuidi, Marco Verratti; Edinson Cavani, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Ezequiel Lavezzi
Thiago Motta is healthy, unlike the last leg, so Laurent Blanc could move David Luiz back to defense. Jose Mourinho could also go to a more attacking team at home, introducing Oscar for Ramires. But these teams were both happy with their first leg performances, and if it’s not broke, why fix it?
Key Matchups
Chelsea's attacking set pieces - Having an extra central defender in the lineup should have given PSG an advantage over Chelsea when it came to balls in the air in both boxes, but they conceded their goal because David Luiz switched off defensively, allowing John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic to combine for a goal. Jose Mourinho's teams have always been excellent on attacking set pieces, and PSG need to improve on their first leg performance in this area.
Edinson Cavani vs. Branislav Ivanovic - This could be a huge matchup going in both directions. Ivanovic isn’t great at tracking diagonal runs, while Cavani is not exactly a defensive winger. They’ll be a very even and important matchup for each other defensively.
Marco Verratti and Diego Costa vs. the referee - Both teams employ a player who isn’t above trash-talking, shirt-pulling and kicking opponents off the ball. As good as these teams are at actual football skills, this game could ultimately come down to who’s better at deceiving the referee.
Prediction
Are you willing to bet against a Jose team at home this early in the tournament? 1-0 Chelsea.
See More:
