Shakhtar Donetsk was supposed to be a pretty solid draw for Bayern Munich, who have looked like Champions League contenders all season long. Any hiccups have been minor, serious injury problems haven’t derailed them and they were supposed to roll over the Ukrainians without much issue.
Bayern Munich vs. Shakhtar Donetsk preview, 2015 Champions League: Bavarians should roll
Do Bayern Munich have vulnerabilities? Sure. But it’ll probably take a better team than Shakhtar to expose them.
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Of course, that still could happen. In fact, it probably will happen. But Shakhtar have done surprisingly well to keep this tie interesting, drawing 0-0 in the first leg. Failing to win at home means they’re still pretty serious underdogs, but they didn’t give up an away goal, so any scoring draw will get them through. Bayern have a very good, but not elite defense, so scoring on them won’t feel like an impossible task.
Bayern also looked a bit shaky at the weekend against Hannover. They conceded early, then took the lead off a free kick and a penalty before finishing off their hosts with a 72nd minute header by Thomas Müller. Because that’s the thing with Bayern -- even when they play poorly and look beatable, they usually win 3-1. So have fun overcoming that, Shakhtar.
Team News
Thanks to his red card in the first leg, Xabi Alonso will probably miss out. Philipp Lahm won't be ready to replace him, either -- even though he's back in full training Pep Guardiola is going to keep his captain out for this match. Javi Martinez and Thiago Alcantara are out, too, so Bastian Schweinsteiger is going to have a lot of work to do
Shakhtar’s only big injury is Bernard, who has an ankle injury. Backup defenders Serhiy Kryvtsov and Ivan Ordets are also slight doubts, leaving Shakhtar a bit thin at the back.
Projected Lineups (left to right)
Bayern Munich (3-3-3-1): Manuel Neuer; Jerome Boateng, Dante, David Alaba; Rafinha, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Juan Bernat; Franck Ribery, Mario Götze, Arjen Robben; Thomas Müller
Shakhtar Donetsk (4-2-3-1): Andriy Pyatov; Vyacheslav Shevchuk, Yaroslav Rakitskiy, Oleksandr Kucher, Darijo Srna; Fernando, Fred; Taison, Alex Teixeira, Douglas Costa; Luiz Adriano
Picking out a formation for Bayern Munich is pretty pointless. You could call it a lot of things and make a good case for why your set of numbers is correct. The most important thing is that David Alaba is likely to push up in midfield, so this formation will have two center backs in possession and three out of it. Also, you could drop any of the four front men for Robert Lewandowski and make a formation that makes sense, but he sat in the first leg and at the weekend.
Key Matchups
Douglas Costa vs. Bayern’s left - Bayern’s pretty good at the changing formation thing now. Even when Alaba gets really far forward from his kind of left center back, kind of midfield position, they’re pretty good at covering. But playing a system like that always makes it possible that opposing teams can find holes on the counter, and Douglas Costa is really fast. Shakhtar’s best chance to score is finding him with an early ball running into the space that Alaba has vacated.
David Alaba vs. the Beep test - While we’re on the subject of Alaba, he was probably Bayern’s best player in the first leg, and he’ll be really important whether he plays that two positions at once role or is just asked to be a regular midfielder or wingback. No one can actually match up with him, so it’ll be fun to see if he can set some kind of ground covered record or if he’s still sprinting up and down the pitch in the 90th minute.
Arjen Robben vs. Shakhtar’s left - Shakhtar should print out a piece of paper that says “Arjen Robben cuts onto his left and shoots” about a hundred million times and then put them everywhere in the dressing room. Push him right and make him cross with his right. Please.
Prediction
It’s Bayern at home in the Champions League against a team that had to travel from Ukraine. Guardiola might out-think himself and field some outrageous team that concedes two dumb goals, but Bayern are good enough to fight back from that anyway. Let’s say 3-1 Bayern.
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