Atlético Madrid aren’t challenging for the La Liga title again, but so far, they’ve done an excellent job at preventing Real Madrid from competing for trophies. They won 2-1 at the Bernabeu back in September, comfortably advanced past them in Copa del Rey in January, then wrecked their rivals in a 4-0 league demolition in February. Los Merengues have had no answers for their little brothers.
Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid preview, Champions League 2015: Can the Rojiblancos do it again?
Diego Simeone has made Carlo Ancelotti look awful this season, and he has the chance to do it two more times.
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Even if Diego Simeone’s team is one of the best knockout competition specialists we’ve seen this decade, this has to end at some point, right? Can Atléti really keep Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and James Rodriguez at bay for a fifth and sixth match in a row?
It seems like a pretty ridiculous ask, but Real aren’t any better than they were in February. They lost a Clásico and were made to look like fools in a near-collapse against Schalke in the last round of the Champions League. At this point, it would be more surprising to see Real Madrid play up to their talent level and blast through Atléti than it would be to see them get shut out.
Team news
Both managers have full teams to select from. Atlético Madrid have no reported injuries, while Pepe, Sami Khedira and Fabio Coentrao are slight doubts for Real Madrid. At this stage of the season, it's harder to find two healthier teams anywhere in Europe.
Projected lineups (left to right)
Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Jan Oblak; Guilherme Siqueira, Diego Godin, Miranda, Juanfran; Koke, Tiago Mendes, Gabi, Arda Turan; Antoine Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Iker Casillas; Marcelo, Sergio Ramos, Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal; James Rodriguez, Toni Kroos, Luka Modric; Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Gareth Bale
Isco was a key player for Madrid while Luka Modric and James Rodriguez were out, but it seems like he’s been displaced by the returning Galacticos rather easily. Still, it’s always possible Ancelotti could put him in the side ahead of James or Bale. There’s also a chance Pepe could start for Madrid, but if there are any doubts over his fitness, Varane is likely to get the nod.
There are also shape questions about Madrid, especially with this lineup. This could be a 4-4-2 as easily as it could be a 4-3-3, and if his starting formation isn’t working, Ancelotti can switch to the other.
Key Matchups
Atlético Madrid's forwards vs. Raphael Varane -- He's just 21 years old, so he'll probably get a lot better, but Raphael Varane hasn't developed much over the last couple of years. He's still prone to bad mental errors, and while his physical gifts cover for most of them, Atléti will probably pounce of he falls asleep. Varane will need to be on his game to prevent Mandzukic and Griezmann from stealing a goal on the counter.
Set pieces -- As usual, Atléti are among the best in the world in this area. They’re very hard to score on and their center backs are always a threat to score. But it’s not like Real are totally overmatched here -- Sergio Ramos is probably one of the best players in the world at scoring on set pieces.
Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Gabi and Tiago -- With Atléti likely to sit very deep and absorb pressure, expect Ronaldo to see more of the Rojiblancos’ defensive midfielders than their defenders in this game. If he’s cutting in to look for shots, he’s going to have to avoid this pair.
Prediction
If recent Champions League ties and Real Madrid matches are any indication, Atlético Madrid are going to prioritize keeping their shape above all else in this game and opt not to take any risks going forward. They shouldn’t be able to score that way and they shouldn’t be able to keep a clean sheet, but what reason is there to believe that Madrid is better than they were the times they got blown apart by their cross-town rivals? 1-0, Atlético Madrid.
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