In his short and glittering managerial career, Pep Guardiola has made many mistakes. He accidentally let the entire world think they could call him by his nickname, which frankly cheapens the entire business. He wore a leather tie on television, repeatedly. He bought Zlatan Ibrahimovic, then mortally offended Zlatan Ibrahimovic, then flogged Zlatan Ibrahimovic on again at a gigantic loss; exactly which of those amounts to the mistake is up for debate, but at least one has to be. Maybe all three.
Pep Guardiola’s Bayern have been too strong for their own good
If a side’s going to get beaten up by Barcelona, they really need to have something else going on as well.
But nothing comes close to this season’s cock up. In the wake of Bayern’s elimination from the Champions League at the hands — well, feet — of Barcelona, it becomes clear that Guardiola has seriously miscalculated this campaign. He went and won the league far, far too soon.
Precisely when Bayern won the league is up for debate. They were officially champions on April 26, when Wolfsburg lost to Borussia Mönchengladbach, but given that this season their challengers were a fistful of Europa League sides, and that Borussia Dortmund finally exhausted the motivational powers of Rammstein and hugs, and that Schalke were their usual selves, you could quite reasonably argue that the title was done by the time everybody broke for Christmas. Or, given the disparity between their squad and everybody else's, over before it even started.
This is a problem. First of all, it’s kind of dull. Second of all, there’s the suspicion that teams without some kind of domestic stimulation find it harder to find the best of their form and focus for, say, Champions League semifinals. Whether this is true or not is open for debate -- Juventus, who take a lead to Real Madrid Thursday night, appear to be doing OK for themselves despite the state of the rest of Italy -- but it certainly makes some sense. Going from first straight to fourth will ruin a gearbox.
The third problem, though, is one of perception. Perception and timing. League titles are funny things: Win by a single point and it’s a title race for the ages; win by five or six and it’s a resounding and dominant display. Get into double figures, though, and the achievement starts to tarnish a touch. It becomes less a question of the winners being brilliant, and more a question of everybody else being rubbish. Here we note that Bayern have lost four league games all season, two of those after the title was done.
Winning it early wastes the triumph as well. Champagne (or, this being Bayern, lager) bubbles go flat quite quickly. Imagine that last night’s defeat had come in the context of a fierce title scrap: Yes, it would have been unfortunate; yes, questions would have been asked; and yes, it would have hurt. But there’d still be a trophy to play for! Still the promise of glory! Stick the glory before the defeat, however, and things just peter out in vaguely disappointing fashion. That’s just bad scriptwriting. If Star Wars had opened with the medal ceremony, then ended on the murder of Luke’s family, you’d never have heard of Jar-Jar Binks. In a bad way.
Quite how Guardiola goes about fixing this for next season isn't clear, but assuming he doesn't scuttle off to Manchester City, a few options present themselves. Perhaps Bayern could realise that buying all the best players from the other sides in the league isn't just rude, but actively counterproductive. Or at least, they could start lending some of them back. Send Mario Götze off to Bayer Leverkusen, or something; they get to use him, and everybody has to look at his face less.
More excitingly, perhaps Bayern could actively set themselves handicaps. For example, they could begin next season playing a highly experimental, ultra-nostalgic, proto-tactical 2-3-5. Bayern’s squad is good enough that they could probably still win a few games, but chances are they’d lose a fair few as well, and do so in highly entertaining fashion. Then, after Christmas, rediscover the joys of a back four and an organised midfield, and steamroller through to the end of the season.
It might also be worth trying not to have several extremely important players simultaneously injured. Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, David Alaba and Javi Martinez? All at the same time? That's miserable planning.
Here’s how it works. Human beings are simple, impatient creatures, with short attention spans, and though we spend much of our time looking backwards, we move through time in one direction. End the season with a triumph, even a hard-fought and sometimes unconvincing one, and it’ll be remembered as a triumphant season. End it with a thumping at the hands of Barcelona, and that will be what gets remembered. Untouchable domestic dominance sounds like a great idea in theory; in practice, however, it just piles even more attention on the cups. Less is more, Herr Guardiola. Less is more.
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