Ranking the remaining 16 women’s World Cup teams by their chances of winning

The runners-up in the only group with no good teams are excellent candidates to crash out to a team that was perceived as inferior to them going into the tournament. The two teams in the runner-up tilt that leads into a likely game against the United States were always going to be in trouble, and China looks to be the worse side of the two.

They’re only this high out of respect for what they did coming into the tournament, and the club form of their top players, but Sweden are screwed. They take on the best team in the world, Germany, in the Round of 16, and have to do so after three totally uninspiring group stage performances. Caroline Seger and Lotta Schelin are legit superstars, and can fire Sweden to a big upset over Germany, but they’ve done nothing so far to inspire confidence. They’ve been the most disappointing team in the tournament so far.

The second-most disappointing team at this World Cup is Switzerland, who some projected to better Japan and top their group. Ramona Bachmann has been throughly entertaining, but her ridiculous slalom runs haven’t been leading to scoring chances. No team does more and creates less than Switzerland. The good news for them is that they’re up against an average-looking Canada in the first round, then play a beatable second-placed team if they can get through that match.

It’s a bit comforting to know that England, at every level, men’s or women’s, youth or senior, are exactly the same. They are roughly eighth-12th best squad in the world, and they are absurdly boring. They play awful football and scrape a couple of results. They get to the Round of 16 or quarterfinal, then lose to clearly superior opposition. The good news for this team is that their draw means they might not meet any clearly superior opposition until the semifinal.

But while Norway don’t quite fall into that category, we have every reason to believe they’re a tad better than England, their Round of 16 opponents. Young starlet Ada Hegerberg has been solid in her first World Cup and they put in a very solid team performance in a draw against Germany, especially in the second half. It’s tough to see England breaking down their organized midfield or beating their defense on physical ability alone.

Norway are the non-group winner with the best chance to win the tournament, just because of how their draw shook out. The separation between them and prospective quarterfinal opponents Canada is minimal.

France is the second- or third-best team on the planet right now, but between their draw and their loss to Colombia, it’s tough to pick them to win the tournament. South Korea are no joke of a Round of 16 opponent, Germany or Sweden will be a big test in the quarterfinal, and then the United States are their most likely semifinal opponent. Their recent history in World Cups and European Championships suggests they’re going to struggle to beat that many good teams consecutively.

They’re above France because they’ve played better soccer so far and won the 2013 Euros, but their performance against Norway was thoroughly disappointing, and they have the hardest road to the final of any team. As lame as Sweden have been so far, they’re still incredibly dangerous. Same goes for France and the USWNT. Germany are the best team in this tournament, but they’re also the one that’s about to face the most chances to lose. The separation between the top 8-10 women’s teams is now so small that it’s really hard to beat four of them in a row.

They’re above France and Germany because they have such a cake draw, but boy, do Canada look bad. They’re in serious need of a healthy Diana Matheson, and it’s not clear whether or not she’s coming. Coach John Herdman said that she’s back in training and able to play some real soccer, but she didn’t come off the bench against the Netherlands. Les Rouges will be hoping she can make a cameo against Switzerland, play some more minutes in the quarter, and be truly ready to go for the semi. If she’s not -- or Jessie Fleming doesn’t suddenly become a grown-up superstar -- there’s no reason to believe they’ll make the final.

Even though they got thrown in the difficult half of the bracket, the U.S. got the easiest draw. If they got seven points against Group A’s teams without playing well, they should be able to skate by Colombia and the winner of China-Cameroon. That’s not to say they look great, though -- Jill Ellis has a lot of problems to solve, and her midfield is going to prove very difficult to fix with the roster she has. But as lame as they’ve been, they only have to win two hard games to win the World Cup. France need to win three, while Germany and Sweden need to win four.

Very few picked Japan to win this tournament simply because the 2011 Golden Ball winner, Homare Sawa, is now 36 years old. She hasn’t been nearly as dominant in this tournament and was rested in one game, but Japan haven’t needed her. Sawa’s supporting cast looks a lot more capable of taking control of the game without her than they did in 2011 -- when, again, they won the World Cup. Central defender Saki Kumagai, now 24, doesn’t just look like a talented young player anymore. She’s been one of the stars of this tournament so far.

The Brazil-Australia winner will be the hardest opponent they face in the run-up to the final, and if they win that game, they’ll be big favorites to win their semifinal. Will many pick them to beat whoever comes out of the hellish top half of the bracket? Maybe not, but unlike all of those teams, they have a very good chance to get there.