FA Cup “upsets” seem to have become so regular that it’s difficult to see them as surprising. Every new round brings the prospect of another few, to the extent it is a satisfying novelty to see a top-flight team comfortably swat the pesky long-shots aside with the rightful conviction of the European elite.
Why most FA Cup upsets aren’t really upsets at all
The great tradition of the FA Cup upset is being devalued by the term’s overuse.
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Chelsea's confident 2-0 win over Scunthorpe United over the weekend was as unpredictable as Liverpool's children grinding out a draw at fourth-tier Exeter, and far more so than Manchester United's first team relying on a Wayne Rooney spot-kick to see off third-tier Sheffield United. But in an age in which the very top of English football is only getting wealthier -- and consequently stronger, fitter and more clever -- FA Cup surprises, in the sense of a genuinely shocking result, are almost certainly not getting any more common. Instead, the parameters by which a result officially strays into Official Upset territory are being broadened further in a desperate attempt to recover that famous Magic of the Cup.
For those unfamiliar with the English football lexicon, the term “upset” (occasionally “cupset”) holds a unique position relative to the FA Cup. It’s not merely a synonym for a surprise result. Rather, one in which a veritable minnow, often of semi-professional status, pulls off an unlikely giantkilling or draw against one of the England’s big teams. They’re rare, and they’re memorable.
Yet, in the recent, fairly unspectacular third round, several results were described as upsets in the media. According to the Telegraph, Swansea City "found themselves on [the] wrong end of an upset" at Oxford United, while according to the Press Association, "League One strugglers Colchester caused an FA Cup third round upset" in their win over Charlton Athletic (a team ONE WHOLE division higher in the football league pyramid). Meanwhile, there were a few near misses: according to BT Sport, "Premier League basement side Aston Villa avoided an upset" in their draw against Wycombe Wanderers. Going by the BBC, "non-league side Eastleigh came within minutes of upsetting Bolton." Finally, the same site described how "League Two Exeter were denied a memorable FA Cup upset as a barely recognizable Liverpool side came from behind" to draw. That's an awful lot of upsetting, and even more near-upsetting. But not much that is really, truly surprising.
For lower league teams, the FA Cup remains a hugely significant boon. Cut far adrift from the wealth of the top two divisions, English lower league football remains a murky, uncertain world. Gareth Ainsworth, manager of Wycombe Wanderers -- a team that has spent the last few years yo-yoing between Leagues One and Two -- revealed the value of a potential result away at Aston Villa in an interview with The Telegraph’s Jim White. The club is in such financial peril that Ainsworth is still registered as a player, despite being 42 years old and having not made an appearance in three years. But the cup attracts much-needed capital: “I know down to the last 5p how much this tie means to us, how much more we’ll make on the kiosks, how much the club shop will make. But the club has got a huge debt. People keep thinking we’re out of trouble -- no way.”
Meanwhile, according to journalist Nick Harris, Exeter's draw against Liverpool and the subsequent replay to be played away at Anfield earns them almost a year's wage bill. He also calculated that almost "70 percent of England's current 92 league clubs (63-of-92) had their all-time record home attendance for an FA Cup game." This existential hope offered by the cup stands in stark contrast with the disinterest of the bigger and better teams. The top two divisions are much more significant, both in financial and sporting terms, and the pressures of juggling several competitions are so intense that an early exit may (more or less secretly, depending on team selection) be more welcome than a deep progression. Perhaps it's no coincidence Arsenal, a team who've mastered the art of the Premier League title race fade, have won the FA Cup more than anyone else in history.
But beyond the added monetary motivation and the rare chance to play on live television, there’s also the simple technical fact that it’s not very hard for lower league teams to make life very difficult for their more illustrious opponents. Roy Hodgson was presumably exaggerating when he claimed he could coach a pub team to stop Manchester United, but one can see the point he’s trying to make. A good coach can turn even the most rag-tag bunch of lower league journeymen into a disciplined regiment. Add to that a congested, muddy pitch; robust, physical players; and route-one buildup play, and hey, presto: you’ve got a game on your hands.
In such a hostile environment as that, it's hardly surprising scrawny teenagers, as fielded by Jürgen Klopp away in Exeter, find themselves struggling. Indeed, one of the Premier League's most experienced coaches, Tony Pulis, has made a good top-flight career out of adopting this FA Cup logic and applying it out of its original context. It's undoubtedly harder to execute with a lower league team, but it's far from impossible or even especially unlikely.
That isn't to say true upsets don't exist. Plenty of English football's most legendary tales have emerged from shock FA Cup results: In 1971, fourth division Colchester United saw off a Leeds United side regarded as one of Europe's top teams. Just over a decade later, a Wrexham team that had finished the previous season rock bottom of the football league came from behind to record a 2-1 win at home to English champions Arsenal. Even non-league Exeter's goalless draw away at Old Trafford in 2005, against a United team that included Cristiano Ronaldo, Paul Scholes, Tim Howard and Gerard Piqué, deserves its position in the pantheon of FA Cup upsets. But these moments have become iconic, immortalized in print, photograph and nostalgia. It's only right these legendary upsets are few and far between, as it's ultimately their scarcity, their unlikely triumph against the odds, that sets them apart. But the sad truth is, most "upsets" are hardly upsetting at all.
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