The Premier League’s slumping mid-table could be subject to a massive shake-up

The process of evaluating a season is an unpredictable one. Rather than a static process that occurs once the 38th league result is neatly penciled in, it’s a constant undertaking. After all, big decisions like the sacking of a manager are ultimately based on forecasts extrapolated from these perpetual assessments. In corporate speak: How is one performing relative to expectation? And most importantly, how can one’s performances be expected to change over the coming weeks and months?

At the start of the season, Watford would surely have bitten one’s hand off to be in a comfortable mid-table position heading into the final couple of games of the Premier League campaign. And there’s no doubt, for a team that changed coach and signed all but two of their regular starting lineup in the summer, reaching the 40-point mark with games to spare is a thoroughly impressive achievement. But in spite of their exciting win over Aston Villa on the weekend, there’s the feeling that their season has lost its sheen -- particularly in light of their FA Cup semifinal defeat to Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago.

Of course, cumulative fatigue and resultant injuries can be a cause of such a drop off. And it’s true to say Palace have spent a portion of the season missing the important Yannick Bolasie. But none of the other sides have had to go extended periods of time without their most important players.

And so, injuries excepted, there appear two plausible possibilities in explaining such poor finishes (though, of course, both factors can -- and probably are -- working in tandem with each other). The first is the least concerning: the idea the players got to 40 points, saw they were all but guaranteed safety, and decided to take less of a mental tea break than an entire four-month, round-the-world cruise. This is the most convenient explication for the managers, and one that it’s easy for the supporters to get behind. It stops everyone asking more complicated and worrying questions. Bloody overpaid footballers!

But is it really a reasonable suggestion? I love winning. You love winning. Footballers love winning. Footballers love money. Playing well not only boosts their chances of winning, it boosts their chances of more money. Bingo! As here demonstrated with irrefutable logic, it is bizarre, to say the least, to assume players would simply down tools once they’d reached the 40-point mark.

The idea that players may well be distracted by a looming bigger game is another simple and convenient explanation for managers. A couple of weeks ago, Watford’s Flores, ahead of an important league game against West Brom, said: “Maybe they have the distraction of the FA Cup, it’s normal. It’s difficult to stop them but I understand that. In this moment if you ask the players: ‘do you prefer to play at Wembley or against West Brom,’ everyone says ‘I want to play at Wembley.”

But preparing for football matches isn’t like studying for exams in two different subjects. Admittedly, tactical tweaks are made from game-to-game, but these should only be small adaptions to a side’s general tactical blueprint. There’s reason to be skeptical about the ‘distraction’ distraction.

Of course, mental fatigue is likely to play a part, and teams like Watford, Palace and West Brom, whose style of football, being as reactive as it is, requires absolute concentration and tactical discipline. It’s plausible to assume that in a very counter-attacking team, in which sheer work rate and commitment is crucial to avoid compromising the team’s defensive structure, motivational deficiencies are exposed more than they would in a team whose emphasis is more on a possession-based approach.

But there is a second possibility, a possibility all the more concerning: that these teams have been found out. It’s a question which all of the aforementioned will be asking themselves. None can hide from the fact that, at the end of next month, the Premier League table will be reset -- and they’ll be joint-bottom. The form they’ve been in over the second half of this season is simply unsustainable. What if it’s not just a motivational issue. What if it’s a tactical one? What if?

Managers like Stoke’s Mark Hughes and West Brom’s Tony Pulis are unlikely to be too worried. They’ve been in the Premier League long enough that their methods are now fairly well tried and tested. But for Palace’s Alan Pardew, who has form for such bizarre winless streaks, and for Watford’s Flores -- who is reportedly now subject to pressure from the club’s owners -- there’s more reason for concern. Everton’s Roberto Martínez could be on his way out as well, with a new owner coming in and fans protesting their manager’s continued employment.

It may well turn out to be a simple lack of motivation that has undermined their excellent starts to the season, yet there remains the possibility it isn’t. If they’re to avoid a worrying summer of waiting and what ifs, they’ll be hoping to finish with a flourish.