NWSL Week 15 preview: Confusion reigns with crowded table

Heading into week 15 — the final weekend of action before the league goes dark for nearly a month while some of its biggest stars are competing in the Olympics — two teams, Portland and Washington, are tied on points at the top of the table, with 26 each. Western NY is just one point back in third, and there’s a two-way tie for fourth, with Sky Blue and Chicago both on 22 points. If the season ended today, Sky Blue would get in as the fourth playoff team, but because both the head-to-head record and goal differential are the same, they’d need to go to the third tiebreaker - total goals - to get there.

Beyond Chicago, Seattle, though not the dominant team of seasons’ past, is still only two points back of Sky Blue and the Red Stars, and the Reign has a history of turning it on late — both in games and seasons.

But below Seattle, things get crowded again. And with our focus on that Portland-Washington-Western NY battle and the very much still up-for-grabs fourth spot, it’s easy to forget that there’s plenty of fight at the other end of the table, too. None of the teams occupying the bottom four spots — not even Boston — are mathematically eliminated yet, and while the playoffs are a long shot for some, others still have a reasonable chance at making a late-season push.

First — or last — there is the Breakers. Boston is the only team in the bottom four without a particularly hopeful outlook. On the brink of becoming the first team eliminated from postseason contention, the Breakers need a win and a combination of some other results this weekend to go their way to stay alive.

To say that the season’s gone badly for Boston would be an understatement. With 13 games played, the Breakers — through some combination of bad luck and ineptitude — have still scored only six goals, won just once, and are on pace for the worst finish in NWSL history. No team has ever finished a season with fewer than three wins or without at least getting into double digits in goals scored or points, all things that are now very real possibilities for the Breakers. This season was supposed to be one of rebuilding for a Boston team that also finished dead last a year ago, yes, but there was supposed to be a little hope packed in there too.

After finally parting ways with head coach Tom Durkin at the end of the 2015 season, Boston brought in Matt Beard, a coach who has had some success turning bad teams good again. Beard had brought Liverpool Ladies from the basement of the FAWSL to two-time league champions, and the hope was that he’d be able to duplicate that success in Boston or at least start to duplicate that success. Like, turn the copy machine on, at the very least. Instead, that “OUT OF TONER” light just blinks and blinks and blinks, the paper tray is empty, and Boston is headed for a place where they’re Instagramming screen grabs of Durkin-era NWSL tables, hashtag goals.
Boston takes on Orlando on Sunday, and even the expansion Pride isn’t having as bad a season as the Breakers. In fact, Tom Sermanni’s team is having a pretty decent first year. Orlando is currently in seventh, and though the top half of the table is getting increasingly crowded as the season winds down, the Pride is still only four points off the top four. A good result this weekend and they’ll be right back in the postseason conversation.

Orlando has had something of a back-and-forth season thus far, and comes into Sunday’s meeting with the Breakers on the heels of the worst defeat in club history, a 5-2 loss to Seattle last weekend. But even in that loss, there were some bright spots for the Pride. Alex Morgan, whose availability has been limited due to USWNT commitments, so far hasn’t broken through as the team’s go-to scorer the way the Pride hoped. But Jasmyne Spencer and Kristen Edmonds, who both scored for Orlando in the loss to the Reign, have picked up some of that offensive slack. Edmonds, with four goals, is currently the Pride’s leading scorer.

The way Orlando’s first season is going is also a lot better than the first season of the league’s only other expansion club went. Or better than that other expansion club’s current season is going. The now third-year Dash heads into this weekend in ninth, and even a win against Western NY on Saturday isn’t going to change that. With ten goals, Houston is one of the league’s lowest scoring teams — only Boston has scored fewer goals than the Dash — and the Dash has had a hard time putting together any kind of streak that doesn’t involve being shut out. The Dash finally broke out of a six game scoreless drought two weeks ago with a big win over the Thorns, and somehow managed to follow that up with a 1-1 draw against Chicago last weekend, but a meeting with Western NY this weekend — Houston’s third tough game in as many weeks — might be too much for a Dash team missing seven players to handle.

There is one thing that Houston does have in its favor as they take on the Flash, they probably won’t get blown out like their basement roommates did. The Breakers were famously at the wrong end of two of the season’s ugliest games, suffering 4-0 and 7-1 losses to Western NY. But where Boston has a minus-23 goal differential, Houston’s is a much more respectable minus-two. Though the Dash did fail to score in six straight games, they also allowed only a single goal in each of those games. Solid defensive performances are only half of the equation though, and that the Dash has continued to have such a hard time with the offensive portion has landed them in a precarious position heading into the break.

Thanks to some weather-related issues, the Dash has played at least one fewer game than everyone else, which is an advantage, though an increasingly small one. They’ll make up the rescheduled game against Washington during the Olympic break, the league’s only action after this weekend until the full schedule resumes at the end of August. But even with the game in hand, Houston’s playoff hopes are looking increasingly slim. The almost last place Dash will need a lot of wins, and a lot of help, to get into the postseason — or even out of ninth. FC Kansas City is currently occupying the eighth spot, and the Blues have a five-point lead on the Dash.

Not only do the Blues at least have a little breathing room between them and the bottom of the table, the defending champions are suddenly playing okay again, too. Kansas City, like Boston though for very different reasons, is also going through something of a rebuilding season. FCKC lost eight players to retirement or trade from last season’s championship winning team, and the Blues have had a hard time recovering. Kansas City has just four wins so far this season, but one of those came last weekend, when they managed to knock off the Flash in Rochester. The postseason is still a long way off for Vlatko Andonovski’s team, but another win this weekend could move the Blues up the table.

FC Kansas City, like Houston, has had a pretty successful season defensively but has struggled with scoring. Second-year forward Shea Groom has carried most of the offensive load for the Blues, scoring six of FCKC’s 11 goals, but her hard-nosed play has also earned some less positive attention. Groom has already been ejected once this season, and has been involved in several other on-field dustups through her two-year career, including one four weeks ago that resulted in the suspension of Seattle’s Merritt Mathias.

FC Kansas City takes on Chicago on Saturday, and the Red Stars will be looking to get back into the top four after being bumped out by a suddenly hot Sky Blue FC last weekend. The Red Stars and Blues have met just one other time this season, a 0-0 draw on May 13.

By the time the curtain closes for a month-long intermission at the conclusion of the Breakers-Pride game on Sunday night, we may have a clearer picture of what the postseason will look like, and we may be saying goodbye to the Breakers, too. But the other three teams at the bottom of the table — FC Kansas City, Houston and Orlando — have all been playing well lately, and another good performance this weekend could pull someone right back into the playoff conversation. There are only five weeks left after this one, but the season is far from over for anyone.

Sunday
Boston Breakers vs. Orlando Pride, 6 p.m., Jordan Field (YouTube)