What difference does a year make in the Premier League?

If there’s a sure-fire way to earn the ire of humourless football purists, it’s to mention the dreaded collocation, calendar year. “Sergio Agüero is the Premier League’s top scorer for the 12 months of 2016?” they echo. “I didn’t know there was a trophy for that,” they sneer.

Here’s the thing: we get it. Yes, the irritation of such sticklers is odd, but is still sort-of understandable. The neat compartmentalisation of sporting campaigns into separate seasons is demonstrative of their own temporal logic, one that can only be converted awkwardly and inconsequentially to that of Pope Gregory and his eponymous calendar.

But, alas, here at SB Nation, we can’t help but indulge in such trifling. We’ve spent the festive period playing spot-the-difference with last year’s league table, in a bid to see what difference a year makes in the English top flight. Spoiler alert: the answer is actually quite a lot.

One of the most significant changes has come at the top of the table, with Chelsea having this season emerged as massive title favourites even before the turn of the year. They have a whopping 10 points more than Arsenal had when they were leading Leicester City by goal difference alone at the midway stage of last season, and a considerably healthier gap over their nearest rivals. They held a six-point lead over Liverpool before kicking off the second half of their campaign with defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday; at last year’s midway point, six points would’ve been enough to cover the entirety of the top four.

It has been a thoroughly impressive turnaround for Chelsea, whose improvement under Antonio Conte has been made all the more remarkable by the fact that they’ve achieved it with few changes to playing personnel. This time last year they found themselves just three points clear of the drop zone, though all but two of the players who started in their comprehensive Boxing Day victory over Bournemouth were also on their books last season. Conte’s major success has been reviving attackers Eden Hazard and Diego Costa, who have so far provided the attacking spark for an otherwise brutally efficient outfit. The Blues are showing a ruthless proficiency that has been unrivaled in the Premier League over the last couple of seasons, and picked up more points in the 12 months of 2016 than any other side.

This time last season, well over half the teams in the division still had faint hopes of qualifying for European football. Eleventh-placed Everton were just five points adrift of fifth-placed Crystal Palace at the midway point, while Manchester United, Liverpool, West Ham United, Watford, and Stoke City all found themselves within two points of the Europa League and six of the top four. It wasn’t until the second half of the season that teams started to revert to type: Crystal Palace and Watford were both hit by particularly bad collapses, and mustered just six post-Christmas victories between them. Palace’s awful 2016 eventually cost Alan Pardew his job, and he could have few complaints: the Eagles picked up just 27 points from 37 Premier League matches over the year, which is only four more than newly promoted Burnley have amassed in half the time.

This season, the European selection has almost already been made. José Mourinho’s Manchester United have kicked off the second half of their league campaign in sixth, just as they did under Louis van Gaal last year. However, they’re six points better off, and with a healthy nine-point gap over seventh. Only Chelsea and Liverpool picked up more league points in 2016 than the Reds. Overall, there are far fewer sides that can still dream of a top-five finish, and they’re now only the usual suspects: Manchesters United and City, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Everyone else is almost certainly too far back to mount a charge.

On the back of one of the most competitive campaigns in all of Premier League history, this seems like a slightly retrograde step. Could it be that the mid-table’s TV money isn’t being spent as wisely as it should? Or that the arrival of some of the world’s very best coaches, such Jürgen Klopp (in his first full season at Liverpool), Pep Guardiola, and Antonio Conte, has served to exaggerate the gap between the best and the rest? As ever, it’s likely to be a combination of both.

What entertainment we’ll lose in the battle for Europe, we should gain in a vicious relegation scrap. Midway through last season, the 10th-placed side, Stoke City, sat on 29 points, 12 clear of the bottom three. A year on, 10th-placed Bournemouth have mustered just 24 points from their first 19 matches, and are two points closer to the drop zone than the Potters were. Basement side Swansea City are four points better off than last year’s bottom feeders Aston Villa, who were already all but relegated last January.

Hull City threatened such levels of hopelessness when manager Steve Bruce walked out on a rag-tag bunch of Championship journeymen in the summer, though replacement Mike Phelan did an admirable job before his sacking on Tuesday, and leaves likely replacement Marco Silva in a reasonable position. Swansea, meanwhile, have already gone through three managers, and are red-hot relegation favourites, though the gap remains far from unassailable. If new manager Paul Clement can bring some winning magic with him from the Bayern Munich bench, things would look dramatically different in South Wales.

Elsewhere, Sunderland are down but — as we’ve learned over the last few seasons — never out, while their northeast rivals Middlesbrough are solid at the back but blunt up top; rumour has it Aitor Karanka will be in the running to sign a new striker in January. Everyone all the way up to 11th-placed Burnley, eight points clear of the bottom three, will also be glancing nervously over their shoulders. That includes last year’s champions Leicester, whose attackers Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez have failed to live up to last season’s heroics. By last Christmas they’d scored more goals than the entire Foxes squad have mustered so far this season. They’re hoping to avoid the ignominy of becoming the first Premier League title holders to be relegated.

When comparing the midway table from this season with that of last, three major differences emerge. Unlike last season, we’ve got a clear title favourite: Chelsea are a good-but-not-great team, and yet the consistent inconsistency of their nearest rivals means that will likely be enough for the title. From second to sixth, things are tighter than they were last season, and there are sure to be a couple of disappointed sides missing out on the Champions League come June. However, they’re not going to be as disappointed as whoever ends up in the bottom three. Incumbents Swansea, Hull, and Sunderland remain the favourites, but at least half of the teams in the division haven’t shown enough to feel completely safe. There are no Villas this time around.