The NFL season is officially quarter of the way done for 30 of the 32 teams. The Los Angeles Rams established themselves as the team to beat in the NFC, and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offered a lesson to those who were quick to write them off. The Tennessee Titans are hanging with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Monday Night Football brings a chance to see if Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can go into Mile High and beat the Denver Broncos.
The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season
We have to re-assess some teams dealing with injuries
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!
Betting the over
The NFL is loaded with some truly abysmal defenses, and oddsmakers are going to have to continue adjusting point totals. The Falcons lost a shootout to the Bengals, and since their 18-12 opening loss to the Eagles, Atlanta has been a boon for over bettors.
Meanwhile, the Steelers defense continues to scuffle along. They offered a decent showing for a stretch against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, but they couldn’t do enough late. The Steelers host the Falcons in Week 5, and look for the over to get bet as heavy as anything this week.
For those that were riding the Fitzmagic bandwagon, it was easy to overlook how bad the Buccaneers defense has been. They have given up a league worst 139 points through four weeks. They have a bye to re-assess things, but then they host the Falcons in Week 6. It’s safe to say, like Falcons-Steelers, the over is going to be bet heavily.
Sportsbooks will adjust, but some of these defensive coordinators might want to start betting the over before they lose their jobs.
Re-assessing the 49ers
The 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL in Week 4, and C.J. Beathard moved into the starting lineup. The lookahead line had the 49ers as a 4.5-point underdog, and it jumped to 10.5 points when the official line arrived. The 49ers went into Carson, California and nearly stunned the Chargers, losing 29-27. The 49ers had an opportunity to win it late, but came up short.
What do we make of the post-Garoppolo 49ers? The offense was productive even after losing left tackle Joe Staley and wide receiver Dante Pettis. Of course, they were facing an atrocious Chargers defense. The defense looked good, getting a pick-six off Philip Rivers and keeping Chargers offense mostly in check.
San Francisco hosts a bad Arizona Cardinals team. If the 49ers lose, it might tell us something about expected inconsistency. If the 49ers win, it doesn’t necessarily tell us a lot. The following two weeks at the Green Bay Packers and vs. the Los Angeles Rams might be when we understand what the gambling implications are for the 49ers.
Two more unbeaten ATS teams go down
The Miami Dolphins only care about straight up undefeated teams, but we care about how teams perform against the spread. The Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins both lost their first game against the spread. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams had a push in their 38-31 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams drop to 3-0-1 ATS, leaving the Kansas City Chiefs as the line unbeaten and untied team when it comes to winning bettors money. They head into Denver on Monday Night Football looking to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS.
Earl Thomas goes down, makes sure to get the middle finger up
The Seahawks improved to 2-2 with a win over the Cardinals, but they are scuffling along — and things are only getting worse. All world free safety Earl Thomas suffered a leg fracture in Week 4, and is likely lost for the season. Thomas had held out because of concerns about getting injured before he could get paid, so it is not all that surprising he flipped the bird at his coach as he was carted off the field.
Thomas’ frustrations aside, he was the best player on that defense, and is a huge loss. Non-quarterbacks are tough to assess when adjusting betting numbers, but it has to impact your handicapping — at least a little bit. The Seahawks opened as a touchdown underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, and the number remains there Monday morning. I suspect we’ll see a sizable amount of money rolling in on the Rams this week.
Futures assessment
One week ago, Bovada installed odds on whether or not Le’Veon Bell would be traded, and who might be the destination team. Yes to a trade was an underdog at 8/5 odds, while no to a trade was installed at 4/9 odds. The Steelers are now actively shopping Bell, according to NFL Network reporter Ian Rapoport, and it appears Bovada has now removed trade odds for the time being.
Bovada was offering odds on where Bell would be playing when the trade deadline passed. The Steelers were installed as a 5/11 favorite. They were followed by the Colts (4/1), Jets (11/2), Browns (6/1), and Texans (7/1). The 49ers and Jets have made exploratory calls about Bell, according to CBS Sports reporter Jason La Canfora, and the Eagles are also interested.
MVP race
Monday Night Football could provide a fitting bookend to Week 4. The Los Angeles Rams won a shootout over the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football, in a game that saw Jared Goff throw five touchdown passes. Goff entered the week fourth in Bovada’s MVP odds at 14/1. The leader of the pack was Patrick Mahomes (3/1), and he leads his Kansas City Chiefs into Mile High to face the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. If the Chiefs win and Mahomes puts together even a decent performance, he will likely remain the favorite. However, expect Goff to climb.
Bad Beat of the Week
We didn’t have a truly bad beat in the traditional sense, but Week 5 did bring some tough last second losses for bettors. The Cincinnati Bengals scored a touchdown with seven seconds left to move the game from a push to Bengals cover. The Indianapolis Colts seemed destined for a tie with the Houston Texans, only to fail on a fourth down attempt and set the Texans up in excellent field position to get the game-winner. Add in the Oakland Raiders OT field goal after the Cleveland Browns blew a winning chance, a Titans overtime touchdown, and a late exchange of scores in Dallas, and it was an ugly day for last minute losses.
Monday Night Football pick
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3.5): The Chiefs are favorites at Mile High for the first time since 2010, and only the second time dating back to 1991, according to the OddsShark database. Money opened heavy on the Chiefs, but sharp money brought the number down from five. I would have preferred the higher number, but with the hook over a field goal, I’m still comfortable taking the Broncos.
Looking ahead to Week 5
The first lines for Week 4 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and change is already afoot as this is published. The 49ers opened as a field goal favorite over the Cardinals, but a strong showing against the Chargers has San Francisco bumped to 4.5 points and potentially climbing.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-10.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (-1)
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+1)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+1)
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+7)
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (-3)
Washington @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
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