The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 6 of the 2018 NFL season

The NFL has just about wrapped up Week 6, and we are down to one undefeated team — at least from a straight up perspective. The Los Angeles Rams held off the Denver Broncos to improve to 6-0. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs lost a 43-40 shootout to the New England Patriots to drop to 5-1. The Chiefs were 3.5 point underdogs and remain undefeated against the spread. The Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 6.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

The Miami Dolphins were sitting as a field goal underdog Saturday afternoon with quarterback Ryan Tannehill listed as questionable. Tannehill was added to the injury report as limited on Friday with a shoulder injury, after two days of full practice. On Sunday morning, the line changed from Bears -3 to Bears -6. Shortly after that, NFL reporters were hearing from their sources that Tannehill would be inactive and Brock Osweiler would get the start.

Once the inactive list came out at 11:30 a.m. and Tannehill was on it, people were jumping at the chance to bet against the human turnover machine. Maybe they should have thought twice about it! The line jumped to as high as a full touchdown, but people were quick to ignore history.

Osweiler made his starting debut for a third NFL team in his career, and for the third such game, he faced off against the Chicago Bears. His first start for Denver came with a 17-15 road win over the Bears. His first start for Houston was a 23-14 home win over the Bears. Now we can add a 31-28 home overtime win for Miami against Chicago.

For future reference, if Brock Osweiler makes a starting debut for another team against Chicago, do not bet against him.

Every gambler knows that for every crazy finish from which you benefit, a bad beat is just around the corner to punch you in the stomach. Week 6 offered that full scenario for my SuperContest picks.

In the 1 p.m. slate, I picked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3.5-point road underdog over the Atlanta Falcons. It was a disheartening first half, with Atlanta jumping out to a 21-6 lead. However, Tampa Bay fought back, and in the fourth quarter they twice cut the Falcons lead to two points. After a touchdown and failed two-point conversion cut the Falcons lead to 31-29, Atlanta drove into Bucs territory, and had a 4th and 2 with 1:53 to go. I figured they would punt, but Dan Quinn elected to have Matt Bryant attempt a 57-yard field goal. Bryant was successful, but also injured his leg in the process. Quinn later said he made the decision because he did not trust his defense, and did not think his running back could get the two yards. Falcons win 34-29, Bucs bettors are losers. This stat sums up some of the insanity of this game.

In the 4:05 p.m. slate, I picked the Denver Broncos as a 6.5-point home underdog over the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams could not quite pull away in the first half, leading 13-3 at halftime as Case Keenum was looking fairly useless. LA took a 20-3 lead midway through the third quarter, and all seemed lost. However, Denver chewed its way back and cut the lead to 20-13. The Rams added a field goal after a 13-play, 72-yard drive to take a 23-13 lead with 3:15 to go. Denver proceeded to drive deep into Broncos territory, and rather than get the quick field goal to then attempt the onside kick, they drew a key pass interference call. That set up 1st and goal at the 1, and two plays later Denver scored. They failed to recover the onside kick, and I got my backdoor cover!

No matter how high or how low things get on a given bet, know that there a swing of the pendulum can always be right around the corner.

My favorite futures bet remains the NFC West. Entering Week 6, the Los Angeles Rams were bumped up from 1/25 favorites to 1/100 favorites after their win over the Seattle Seahawks. The line won’t change much this week with the Seahawks getting a victory over Oakland, but LA will remain the heavy favorite with a three-game lead over the Seahawks. The Rams travel to face the 49ers in Week 7, and a win would give them a sweep of the first half of their division schedule.

We almost had a big payoff in the Houston Texans win over Buffalo. Bovada offered 10/1 odds that the Texans game would go into overtime. It would have marked the third straight week Houston played an overtime game. The Texans won on a pick-six late in the fourth quarter. It was their third straight win, and it might be the most unimpressive three-game winning streak in recent memory.

Finally, Bovada is offering 9/1 odds on the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and Buffalo Bills all winning in the same week between now and Week 17. The Jets were the only one of the four teams to win in Week 6. Next week, Arizona hosts 2-4 Denver, Cleveland travels to 2-3 Tampa Bay, New York hosts 3-2-1 Minnesota, and Buffalo travels to 1-5 Indianapolis. Week 7 might actually be a decent opportunity to hit on this wager.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9): I run SB Nation’s 49ers blog, so feel free to factor that into what I offer in this section this week. If the line had been 10 or higher, I was tempted to take the 49ers. However, with the line coming in under ten, I’m inclined to back the Packers. This is a tough game to figure out. The 49ers are scuffling without Jimmy Garoppolo, and might also be without Matt Breida — who has been among the league leaders in rushing this season. On the other hand, the Packers are an inconsistent mess through five games.

The first lines for Week 7 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are some lines of note. The Dolphins host the Lions, but with Ryan Tannehill’s status for Week 7 unknown, the line is not being fully released yet. The biggest early movement comes for Monday Night Football, where the Falcons opened as a field goal favorite over the Giants, but are now closing in on a six-point favorite. The biggest favorite for Week 7 will be the Rams, who are currently an 11-point favorite on the road against the 49ers.

Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5 — London)
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (+3)
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins (NL)
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)