The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season

We saw some order restored in Week 7. If there were any questions about the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs heading into the week, they were answered for the time being. The Rams beat Denver by a field goal in Week 6, and bounced back with a 39-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs lost by a field goal to New England in Week 6, and bounced back with a 45-10 thumping of the Cincinnati Bengals. The week closes out with a matchup of last place teams as the Atlanta Falcons host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

Kickers in organized football are in quite the situation. They get celebrated for successful field goals and extra points, but it feels like we hear a higher degree of negative commentary when things go bad. Really, the kicker is more often than not just there to not screw up. And bettors feel it week in and week out.

Week 7 gave us the worst of it, and I just hope you did not bet on both the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys.

The Ravens were a field goal home favorite against the New Orleans Saints. The two sides went back and forth, until New Orleans scored a touchdown and field goal to take a 24-17 lead in the fourth quarter. The Ravens took over at their 19-yard line with 2:03 to go. Joe Flacco wasted no time, moving Baltimore down to the New Orleans 14 with 24 seconds left. Flacco found John Brown for what should have been the game-tying score.

Kicker Justin Tucker had converted 222 consecutive extra point attempts, and was the only NFL kicker to not miss an extra point dating back to the new kick rule. And then he missed it. The Ravens might not have gotten the win in overtime, but losing this game on Tucker missing an extra point was just brutal.

A short while later, the Dallas Cowboys found themselves in trouble, trailing 20-17 with 1:09 left in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescott led Dallas down to Washington’s 28, setting up a 47-yard field goal. It was not a chip shot, but it was very do-able for Brett Maher.

And then the Cowboys committed a shaky false start.

There are questions about it, and Cowboys players are still pissed off. But the penalty stood and Maher missed a 52-yard attempt after the Cowboys were pushed back five yards. There is no guarantee the Cowboys would have won the game in overtime, but much like the Ravens loss, it was a brutal way to end the game.

The NFL is on pace to shatter records for points scored, and over bets have been regular winners — until Week 7. Four separate games finished a field goal or less under the point total, and all four featured opportunities for more points.

Saints 24 - Ravens 23 (point total = 49): Justin Tucker misses his first extra point attempt in 223 tries, which would have forced overtime. A tie was possible, but an OT field goal would have put this one over.

Washington 20 - Cowboys 17 (point total = 40): Brett Maher misses a 52-yard field goal at the end of the game after a false start penalty penalty bumps the Cowboys back from a 47-yard attempt.

Rams 39 - 49ers 10 (point total = 51.5): The 49ers turned the ball over four times and the game ended with a pair of punts and a turnover on downs at the Rams 18.

Chiefs 45 - Bengals 10 (point total = 56): The Chiefs went for it on 4th and 4 at the Bengals 5 on their final drive, rather than get the extra three points.

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have made it clear they are the two teams to beat in the AFC. The Patriots edged out Chicago, while the Chiefs crushed Cincinnati. Heading into Week 7, you could bet on whether or not the Chiefs and Patriots would play each other in the AFC Championship Game. Yes was installed at +200, while No was installed at -300. I’m curious how long it takes for Yes to eventually become the favorite.

Drew Brees has quietly moved into MVP favorite status. Brees entered Week 7 listed at 4/1 odds to take home the top individual honor. He ranked ahead of Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and Todd Gurley all at 6/1. The Saints got a road win over Baltimore this week, and Brees was a critical part of that win. His stats have not been video game-like this season, but he is quietly chugging along. If the Saints win the NFC South, Brees could take home the MVP as almost a career achievement award. He set the career passing yard record, and also surpassed the 500 passing touchdown mark. I would not be surprised if that influenced the voters.

If Aaron Donald takes home Defensive Player of the Year honors at the end of the season, we’ll look back at Week 7 as when things changed. He entered the week with four sacks on the season, and 9/1 odds to win the award. His odds were behind Khalil Mack (5/9) and J.J. Watt (8/1), and were a bit more based on reputation than 2018 production. That changed against the San Francisco 49ers. Donald had four sacks in a dominant display that will see him climb past Watt in the odds.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4): The Falcons’ injury report is a mess right now, but they benefit this week facing an atrocious Giants squad. Saquon Barkley is looking really good, but Eli Manning is having a difficult time playing with a fork sticking out of his back. That being said, the Falcons defense is enough of a mess that I think the Giants can keep this game competitive. I’d take the Falcons money-line, but it’ll be a close one.

The first lines for Week 8 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are some lines of note. It’s fitting that two games involving four of the worst teams in the leagues are early pick ‘ems. We might see some movement in Colts-Raiders and 49ers-Cardinals, but I don’t see heavy majorities of money on either team. The biggest line of the week will be on Monday Night Football, with the Patriots already a 13-point favorite over the Bills.

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Washington @ New York Giants (+1)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (+1)
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders (Pick ‘em)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (Pick ‘em)
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams (-9)
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+13)