The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 10 is just about a wrap, which means we’re just about at one of the most intriguing matchups of the season. Week 11 is highlighted by a Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are going to make the playoffs, and both have a good shot of being the No. 1 seed in their respective conference. The game is taking place in the high altitude of Mexico City, and should be a fun one.

In the meantime, we saw the New England Patriots get thumped on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers dropped 52 on Carolina, the Cleveland Browns stunned the Atlanta Falcons, the Dallas Cowboys drew even with the Philadelphia Eagles for second place in the NFC East. The week closes out with a matchup of teams competing for a high pick int he 2019 NFL Draft, as the San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

Each week I assess how certain futures bets are looking. For this week, we’re moving one of those futures into the completed side of the ledger. The Chiefs became the first team in the NFL to hit the over on their preseason win total. The Chiefs closed the preseason with a win total of 8.5, and their Week 10 win over the Cardinals gave them their ninth win of the season.

The Bears can guarantee a push with a win next week, but it will be at least Week 12 before anybody joins the Chiefs in hitting the over on their win total.

On the other side of the coin, the Raiders could secure the under on their win total bet in Week 11. They opened at eight wins, but closed at 7.5 heading into Week 1. They are currently 1-8 and traveling to face the Cardinals in a brutal Week 11 matchup.

Patrick Mahomes is having a phenomenal season, and the odds are showing that. He entered Week 10 as the favorite to win MVP at 5/7. 1/1 is even money, so oddsmakers are trying to minimize their losses the rest of the way.

Mahomes is a good bet to win offensive player of the year, but barring a meltdown, Drew Brees is going to win the league’s MVP award. Mahomes has the superior stats, both in traditional counting and advanced analytics. However, at the current rate, Brees is going to take home what would effectively be a lifetime achievement award MVP. He would not be undeserving of the award, but at 39 and with not a ton of time left in Brees’ career, it’s going to be hard for sports writers to resist the chance to honor Brees. It will not be a unanimous vote by any means, but this is how a lot of sports writers operate.

MVP odds are being re-adjusted following Week 10, but there could still be some value in Brees. He was sitting at 3/1 heading into the week, and his 265-yard, three touchdown performance against the Bengals in another Saints rout will likely drop him to 2/1 at best. I still think there is a little bit of value as long as he remains behind Mahomes in the MVP race.

We are into the second half of the 2018 season, which mean the coaching hot seat is getting warmer. More coaches are fired after the season than during it, but somebody is likely to be fired before the season comes to a close. Entering Week 10, Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter had the shortest odds to be fired first, sitting at 9/4 at Bovada. He did not help himself with a 16-3 home loss to Washington, but he likely will not hold top odds entering Week 11.

The Jets have had an inconsistent season, but things took an ugly turn on Sunday against the Bills. Matt Barkley came off the street to look like Peyton Manning, and completely humiliate the Jets. Team owner Chris Johnson did not speak with the media after the game, but head coach Todd Bowles seems unlikely to finish the season as head coach. He was fifth on the odds (13/2) before that ugly loss, and any value in betting him might disappear. The Jets are entering a bye this week, which is always a good time to can a coach.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh entered Week 10 third on the odds list at 5/1. Harbaugh and the Ravens are expected to part ways this offseason, but an in-season firing is not in the cards, according to CBS Sports reporter Jason La Canfora. Who knew we might get a second Harbaugh mutually parted out of town.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5): The Giants and 49ers hold the second and third spots, respectively, in the 2019 NFL Draft order, so this is kind of a big one in that regard. The 49ers are sending out Nick Mullens for his second straight start after a rather stunning debut against the Oakland Raiders. This line was sitting at three for much of the week but appears like it will close at 3.5 at most shops. If you can get the 49ers at -3, I would take it. I don’t think we see the Giants give up like the Raiders did, but the 49ers are the superior team for the most part. Mullens is the big x-factor given his lack of a track record. I think the 49ers cover either number, but I would be hesitant putting money on them with that extra half point.

The first lines for Week 11 have arrived by way of OddsShark, a there are some lines of note. A line has not yet been set for Bengals-Ravens because Joe Flacco’s status is unknown. He is dealing with a hip injury, which could mean Lamar Jackson time in Baltimore.

The best game of the week will be under the lights in Mexico City. The Chiefs and Rams square off at Estadio Azteca on Monday Night Football. The Rams are a slight favorite, but what is most interesting is that we get the highest total (63 points) in NFL history, according to OddsShark.

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (NL)
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants (PK)
Houston Texans @ Washington (+2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+5)
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Oakland Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals (-4)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)