The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 11 is just about a wrap, and that means we get one of the best primetime matchups in recent NFL history. The week closes with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs have a game-and-a-half lead for best record in the AFC, while the Rams are tied with the Saints for the best record in the NFC. The over/under is set at 63, and the world will be betting the over in a big way.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

Ryan Fitzpatrick is sort of the Icarus of the NFL world — he finally flew a little too close to the sun. Well, again.

Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions against the New York Giants and was benched early in the third quarter. This marked his second benching, the first coming after throwing an interception following Winston’s return from suspension. Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble while throwing no touchdowns over the past two weeks. The Fitzpatrick era, at least for 2018, is likely finished.

The Bucs are a tough team to figure out for these final six games. Their win total closed at 6.5 prior to Week 1. It looked like a sure thing after they won their first two games of the season. They have winnable home games against the 49ers in Week 12 and the Falcons in Week 17, but look at their schedule and tell me where you can find two more wins.

This all makes their Week 1 road win over the New Orleans Saints that much crazier.

The Chiefs were the first team to secure their win total over last week, but we are left to wait until Week 12 for anybody to join them. The Rams can guarantee a push with a win over the Chiefs tonight on Monday Night Football, and the Saints can go over next week with a home win over the Falcons.

However, win total numbers at this point in the season do provide insight into some of the under-achievers. Last week, the 49ers loss to the Giants guaranteed they would not hit their over. They opened at eight wins, but climbed to 8.5 by the start of the season. Meanwhile, the Packers, Jaguars, and Eagles all lost in Week 11, and have guaranteed no more than a push on their respective win totals.

Now that Le’Veon Bell has likely played his last snap as a Steeler, odds have arrived on what his next contract might look like. Bovada is offering over/under bets on length and value. The contract length over/under is set at four years, with over the favorite at -165 and under the underdog at +125. Total value over/under is set at $64.5 million. I’d love to see an over/under on fully guaranteed money.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5): This is the best primetime matchup in years. The Chiefs and Rams both sit at 9-1, and have the top odds for a potential Super Bowl 53 matchup. The game was originally scheduled for Mexico City, but poor field conditions mean it becomes a home game for the Rams. The Rams don’t have a particularly big home field advantage, but their combination of offense and defense provides for a somewhat expected line. Both offenses are high-powered, but the upside of the Rams defense is high enough that I’ll take them in a shootout win. The point total is 63, and I’m going with a 37-33 Rams victory.

The first lines for Week 12 have arrived by way of OddsShark, a there are some lines of note. Baltimore has a decision to make at the quarterback position, with Lamar Jackson having some issues, but looking great running with the ball. They face the Raiders this week, but it’s not like the Bengals were a good defense last week. This line will be one to watch as the QB decision plays out.

The Bucs are favored over the 49ers, but they have a QB change happening. Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched on Sunday after throwing three interceptions. Jameis Winston played decently, and likely will get the start in Week 12.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3)
Washington @ Dallas Cowboys (-8)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-12.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+8.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-11.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-6)