The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 12 is just about a wrap, and that brings an AFC South showdown on Monday Night Football. Titans-Texans is not quite as sexy as last week’s Rams-Chiefs, but plenty is at stake for both teams. It won’t be a wild shootout like last week’s game, but DeShaun Watson vs. Marcus Mariota is still a fun one.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

We are officially through all of this season’s bye weeks. If you are still alive in your Survivor pool, that makes life at least a little bit easier depending on who you have left. In fantasy football, most traditional leagues have one more week of games before starting the first round of playoffs.

For the NFL, it gets all the quality teams in action moving forward. Week 12 was a rough one for games, with both the Chiefs and Rams on bye and a host of ugly matchups on display. As we head into Week 13, the Rams and Saints are co-favorites to win Super Bowl 53, entering Week 12 each at 13/4. They also have equal odds to win the NFC title, but the Rams might be the better bet for now. New Orleans holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams, but the final five weeks scheduling would seem to offer the Rams an edge.

The Rams toughest games are at Chicago and at home against Philadelphia. The Saints have three straight road games coming up, along with a home game against Pittsburgh. If New Orleans takes home best record in the conference, they’ll have earned it in a big way.

Speaking of the Saints, quarterback Drew Brees appears close to locking up the MVP award. He was dropped to 1-to-2 odds entering Week 12, and put together a solid four touchdown performance in beating Atlanta on Thanksgiving. Patrick Mahomes is the only player close to Brees in the odds, at 2-to-1, but barring a Saints meltdown these final five weeks, it would be a huge upset for Brees to not take home MVP.

Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy would seem to be firmly on the hot seat after another loss. The Packers loss to Minnesota on Sunday Night Football is their second straight and fourth in five games. They have a couple winnable games against Arizona and Atlanta, but then travel to Chicago in a game that could just about end their playoff chances. Entering Week 12, Bovada listed McCarthy at -220 (5-to-11 odds) to not be the Packers head coach Week 1 of the 2019 season. Those odds will get a boost after Sunday’s loss.

We focus on the NFL here, but Saturday’s wild seven overtime thriller between Texas A&M and LSU brought up an interesting thought. Has a point total bet ever missed by more than 100?

I’ll update if I can find this info, but even if it’s not the most incorrect point total wager in college history, it is on the short list. I did a quick check of the other seven overtime games in college history, and the next closest was Western Michigan-Buffalo in 2017. The point total was set at 50.5, with the Broncos 71-68 win going 88.5 points over the total.

Week 12 brought our biggest run of win total bets cashing in. The Bears and Saints secured the over for 2018, while the Raiders, Packers, and Jaguars all secured the under. Several teams have guaranteed no better than a push on their win total bet, but we have to wait at least another week to see if any of them fall short.

Overs to date: Chiefs, Bears, Saints

Unders to date: 49ers, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars

Tennesse Titans @ Houston Texans (-3.5): This is a tough one to call. The Texans somehow have won seven straight games, and with a win will be tied with New England for the second-best record in the AFC. The Patriots beat the Texans and thus hold the tiebreaker. Tennessee is a half game back of Baltimore and Indianapolis for the second wild card spot. Houston is playing better, more consistent football. I wish this didn’t have the half point hook, but even still, I think Houston wins this game by at least a touchdown.

The first lines for Week 13 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are some lines of note. Broncos-Bengals is the only one without a line as of publishing because Andy Dalton’s thumb is being evaluated. We have four double digit lines, with the Chiefs at -15 against the Raiders serving as the biggest line of the week. The most intriguing matchup has the Saints traveling to face the Cowboys as 7.5-point favorites. New Orleans is rolling, but Dallas at home will be tough.

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers (-14)
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (-4.5)
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (+4.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-6)
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (NL)
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions (+9.5)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+15)
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots (-7)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Washington @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7)