Sports Odds, Lines And Betting News

The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season

Congrats to Julio Jones and those who took the over in the Falcons win!

Updated Nov 5, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

We did not get much in the way of craziness in Week 9, but we seem to have a solid handle on the best teams in each conference. The New Orleans Saints edged out the Los Angeles Rams in a shootout, setting up what most hope could be a fun NFC title game. In the AFC, the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs both won, and likewise, hopes for a fun AFC title game (and Chiefs revenge game) remain alive. The week closes out with a matchup of two fringe playoff contenders badly in need of a win on Monday Night Football, with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Tennessee Titans.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

It was an ugly day for the house

Unless you’re a bookie, I’m guessing you won’t shed any tears over this! The public won by a wide margin on Sunday with virtually every notable sportsbook reporting not just losses, but record level losses.

On Sunday morning, William Hill publishes percentage of total tickets and money wagered on the point spread. For Week 9 Sunday action, nine of the 11 games went for the public. The only games that did not were Chargers-Seahawks, where 71 percent of money wagered was on the Seahawks, and Falcons-Washington, where 51 percent of money wagered was on Washington. The books took a bath otherwise, with the most notable loss seeing the Chiefs covering against the Browns. 88 percent of public money was on the Chiefs, and this matchup led the way for money bet against the spread).

But again, I’m pretty sure the public won’t lose any sleep over a bad week for the house.

Julio Jones gets on the board ... and gets the over!

Jones is on pace for another monster season in receptions and receiving yards, but somehow he had been held out of the end zone through Week 8. In Week 9, that changed. In the final four minutes of the game, Jones caught a wide receiver screen behind the line of scrimmage, split a pair of defenders, and made his way for the end zone marker. New Washington safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix grabbed hold of Jones at the Washington 10, but was unable to completely bring him down. Jones spun and rolled into the end zone.

It got Jones on the board, but more importantly for the gambling crowd, it was a key late game touchdown. The score put Atlanta up 38-14, putting the game over the point total of 47.5. Big ups to Julio Jones hitting pay dirt for himself and over bettors!

The conference title games could be ridiculous

The playoffs are still two months away, but the top two teams in each conference are fairly settled. The Rams and Saints top the NFC, while the Chiefs and Patriots top the AFC. The Saints and Patriots hold the tiebreakers courtesy of head-to-head wins, but for now, LA and KC sit atop the overall standings.

Odds are good we will not actually see all four of these teams in the conference championship games. Upsets happen in the playoffs, and as good as these four teams have been, at least one of them will probably not advance.

That being said, if we get all four into the playoff semifinals, we could be looking at some huge point totals. The four teams are each averaging at least 30 points per game, with the Chiefs leading the way at 36.3. The Chiefs and Rams square off in two weeks in Mexico City, in a game that already has a point total of 63. I suspect the point total betting options will be a bit lower come playoff time, but we could still see some huge numbers in January.

Cleveland hates the sharps

The Cleveland Browns have been a favorite of sharps this season, opening the season with three straight covers and the sharps have been riding them ever since. Cleveland was sitting at 5-2 against the spread, but has dropped two straight against the number, losing 33-18 to Pittsburgh and 37-21 to Kansas City.

In their Week 9 loss to Kansas City, interim coach Gregg Williams decided that he was going to go for two every chance he got. It made sense from an analytics standpoint, but it didn’t help them. Cleveland scored three touchdowns and failed on the two-point try all three times. The three points would not have covered the 8.5 point line, but it left people shaking their heads nonetheless.

Cleveland had a shot late in the game for a backdoor cover. Trailing 37-21, Baker Mayfield and company took over at their own 17 yard line. Two big pass plays had Cleveland at the Chiefs 31 with 4:39 to go. It would have been fitting for them (and profitable for me) to see them score a touchdown and FINALLY convert a two-point conversion. Instead, the Browns Brown’d it up, with Baker Mayfield throwing an interception that effectively ended the game. Thanks, Cleveland.

Futures assessment

The NFC East is wide open heading into the second half of the season. Washington lost to the Falcons in Week 9, dropping to 5-3. They now sit a game up on the Eagles and a game and a half up on Dallas. Prior to Week 1, Philadelphia was a heavy favorite to win the division at 2/3. Dallas was behind them at 15/4, followed by Washington at 15/2. Entering Week 9, Washington led the way with 6/5 odds, followed by Philadelphia at 8/5, and then Dallas at 3/1.

The additions of wide receivers Amari Cooper in Dallas and Golden Tate in Philadelphia have opened things up. Washington added safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, but this race is going to come down to the wire. Washington plays Philly twice and Dallas once. Philly and Dallas have one more matchup between them. I would not be surprised if Philadelphia at Washington in Week 17 decided the division.

Monday Night Football pick

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-5): We get the debut of Amari Cooper in a game that has seen significant line movement. In the Westgate SuperContest, where lines are set on Wednesday afternoon, I was able to get the Titans at +6.5. I don’t like the drop, but I’m inclined to stick with Tennessee regardless. Dallas probably wins this game, but it’s going to be a close one, regardless of the addition of Cooper.