The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 14 is just about a wrap, and that brings a Monday Night Football matchup featuring huge NFC wild card implications. The Seattle Seahawks host the Minnesota Vikings, and while both will remain in their respective wild card positions even with a loss, the loser does drop closer to the bunched up 6-7 squads.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs each booked their ticket to the 2019 NFL playoffs. The Saints clinched the NFC South, while the Chiefs secured at least a wild card berth as they continue fighting off a strong Los Angeles Chargers team.

The Saints also re-gained the upper hand on the Los Angeles Rams in the battle for the best record in the NFC. New Orleans has the head-to-head tiebreaker edge, but had slipped a game back last week following their loss to the Dallas Cowboys. They almost blew this week’s opportunity, having to mount a comeback from a 14-3 halftime deficit to get the win. Bucs backers felt the sting on the Sunday. They looked primed to cover a 9.5-point spread and win outright, only to blow the lead and the cover in the fourth quarter.

The point total for the Dallas Cowboys Week 14 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles settled at 45 when kickoff arrived. Entering the third quarter, Dallas led 9-6, and under bettors were feeling pretty good. The Eagles tied it up with a field goal at the 12:11 mark, and under bettors were still feeling good. The Cowboys took a 16-9 lead on a touchdown with 7:46 to go, and under bettors were thinking, not ideal, but hey, we’re halfway through the fourth quarter, and even if Philly ties it at 16-16, even nine points in overtime keeps us under. We’re good.

So much for that. The Eagles moved down the field and scored a touchdown on four players to tie the game with 3:12 to go. Amari Cooper continued his ridiculous work in Dallas, catching a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the ensuing drive to give the Cowboys a 23-16 lead. The Eagles scored a touchdown with 1:39 to go to tie the game at 23, and under bettors were left wondering what the heck happened. Dallas won on an overtime touchdown, so if you parlayed the under and the Eagles covering the field goal spread, it was an ugly afternoon for you.

The Dolphins fought the Patriots hard all Sunday afternoon, and were set to cover the nine-point spread. Then Kenyan Drake got his hands on a lateral, and the Dolphins decided to give their money line backers an early Christmas present. The Miami Miracle did not swing a huge amount of money like some crazy finishes, but you know Dolphins money line bettors will remember this one forever.

Drew Brees emerged as the MVP leader in recent weeks, and entered Week 14 as a 1/2 favorite to win the award. Patrick Mahomes had led, then slipped, but picked up some momentum last week with the Saints loss in Dallas. Brees bounced back with a solid effort in Week 14, but Mahomes had some signature-like throws in the Chiefs win over the Ravens. Brees has fewer interceptions and a higher quarterback rating, but Mahomes is putting up monster yardage and touchdown totals. This could be one of the closer ballots in recent years.

Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald had climbed into the MVP race with some dominant performances the past two weeks. However, the Rams loss in Chicago, even with a strong Rams defensive effort, likely sunk his hopes. He is still the best defensive player in the NFL, and his 1/10 odds to bring home Defensive Player of the Year attest to that, but he won’t be winning MVP this year.

Entering Week 14, Giants running back Saquon Barkley was the heavy favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, with 2/9 odds. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield was second with 15/4 odds. Although Mayfield had a strong game in the Browns win over Carolina, Barkley may have locked up the award. Barkley rushed for 170 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in the Giants romp over Washington. It is the fourth straight week Barkley has surpassed 100 rushing yards as he is closing the season strong.

Entering Week 14, Bovada offered the following odds for next head coach to be fired.

John Harbaugh (Ravens): 13/5
Todd Bowles (Jets): 15/4
Steve Wilks (Cardinals): 15/4
Vance Joseph (Broncos): 6/1
Dirk Koetter (Bucs): 6/1
Doug Marrone (Jaguars: 13/2
Adam Gase (Dolphins): 8/1
Pat Shurmur (Giants): 8/1
Sean McDermott (Bills): 15/1

Harbaugh’s Ravens lost a tough one in overtime, but retain their hold on the second wild card berth. If they get into the playoffs, I don’t see Harbaugh getting fired. Todd Bowles got a win, but the Jets season is mostly lost at this point. I suspect he’ll be the odds-on favorite heading into Week 15, although Vance Joseph coming off a loss to the 49ers has not helped himself.

Week 14 brought in five more win total bets cashing in. The Colts, Chargers, and Dolphins all secured overs, while the Steelers and defending champion Eagles locked in their respective unders. Meanwhile, Washington appears set to blow what seemed like a near lock to get over seven wins. Mark Sanchez stunk up the joint against the Giants, and the team was too far behind for Josh Johnson to mount a comeback. Washington opened the season 6-3, but has lost four straight, and it’s hard to find even one win to get a push at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, or at home against Philadelphia.

Overs to date: Chiefs, Bears, Saints, Texans, Rams, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins

Unders to date: 49ers, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): The Vikings and Seahawks will not drop out of the wild card picture with a loss, but the winner firms up their grip over the 6-7 teams clumped right behind them. The Seahawks are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games, while the Vikinjgs are 5-8-2 ATS in their last 15 games. The Seahawks are rolling right now, but this looks like the kind of game that could trip them up. Look for the Vikings defense, ranked eighth in overall efficiency, to contain Russell Wilson and Chris Carson. Even if Doug Baldwin plays, I don’t think it will be enough. I see the Vikings covering, and a good shot of winning outright.

The first lines for Week 15 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are some lines of note. We do not yet have a line for Patriots-Steelers because Ben Roethlisberger’s status is up in the air. He injured his ribs in Week 14, and while he did return, he will likely be reevaluated on Monday.

The biggest line of the week for now is the Rams as 9.5-point favorites over the Eagles. That line would have been in double digits had the Rams beaten the Bears, but even with Philadelphia’s loss to the Cowboys, it remains just under 10. The closest line has Buffalo a rare favorite against a scuffling Lions team.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Houston Texans @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-5)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings (-8)
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (-2.5)
Washington @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+5)
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (NL)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)