The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 15 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 15 is just about a wrap, and that brings a Monday Night Football matchup featuring NFC home field advantage and wild card implications. The Carolina Panthers host the New Orleans Saints in a game the Panthers badly need to stay in the wild card race. Meanwhile, New Orleans can set up a Week 16 clinching scenario for best record in the NFC.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

The morning schedule featured some modest upsets, but we mostly saw chalk winning. The biggest upset saw Washington beat the favored Jaguars late in an otherwise hideous football game. The afternoon and prime time brought all outright upsets, however. The 49ers beat the Seahawks as a four-point underdog, the Steelers beat the Patriots as a 2.5-point favorite, and the Eagles stunned the Rams, who were favored by 13.5 points!

Entering Week 15, Bovada offered a wager on whether or not an 8-win NFC team would get into the playoffs. “Yes” was favored at -180, with “No” installed at +140. The “Yes” got a boost this weekend with Seattle losing and Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Washington all winning. The Seahawks have the first wild card berth with an 8-6 record, while the Vikings are second with a 7-6-1 record. The Vikings are likely the key to this. They travel to Detroit and then host Chicago to close out the season. A split is a very real possibility, thus locking them in at 8-7-1.

The Panthers have five straight games, dropping from 6-2 to 6-7 heading into their Monday Night Football showdown with the New Orleans Saints. Entering the game, you can bet on Carolina losing their final three games. Three straight losses to close the season is currently listed at 3/1, while getting at least one win the final three weeks is a heavy 1/5 favorite. The Panthers host the Saints and Falcons the next two weeks, and then close out on the road against the Saints.

In his Week 14 debut as Packers interim head coach, Joe Philbin blew through his two challenges in less than 90 seconds into the game. A week later, either Philbin learned his lesson or someone just made sure to steal his red challenge flag ahead of time. Philbin did not use a single challenge in the Packers 24-17 loss to the Bears. Prior to the game, Philbin not winning a challenge was a -140 favorite, while the under of 0.5 challenges issued was installed as a -230 favorite.

Entering Week 15, Patrick Mahomes was a 5/7 favorite to win the 2018 MVP award, followed by Drew Brees at 1/1. Third on the list and well back was Philip Rivers at 16/1. The Chargers stunned the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football to clinch a playoff berth and keep alive the Chargers hope for the AFC West. The Chiefs travel to Seattle and host Oakland to finish out the season, while LA hosts Baltimore and travels to Denver. If the Chiefs implode these final two games, Brees could jump past Mahomes to win MVP. But could Rivers make a late run? It’s unlikely, but that win over Kansas City has made this at least a little more interesting.

Each week, sportsbooks update odds on the next head coach to be fired. One problem with this for betting is that reports trickle in that a coach will be fired once the season ends. Black Monday will feature numerous firings, but if a coach is fired before then, those reports don’t matter. Here were odds for next coach to be fired heading into Week 15, courtesy of Betonline.ag.

Steve Wilks: 2/1
Todd Bowles: 3/1
Marvin Lewis: 3/1
Dirk Koetter: 4/1
Ron Rivera: 5/1
Vance Joseph: 10/1
Adam Gase: 20/1

Over the weekend, CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora reported sources are telling him Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter will not be back in 2019. It likely will not happen until after the season ends, which means Koetter backers are left waiting in the meantime.

Meanwhile, you can’t even get odds on Doug Marrone, which is surprising to nobody. However, Bovada is offering odds for Tom Coughlin to be the Jaguars head coach when Week 1 2019 rolls around. “No” is installed as a sizable -300 favorite, while yes is a +200 underdog.

Week 15 brought in three more win total bets cashing in. The Browns beat the Broncos to improve to 6-7-1. The Cardinals and Lions locked in their unders. Of note to this author, Washington improved to 7-7, which puts them right on their win total of seven. Given how badly this season has gone from an injury perspective, I’m plenty happy just to get a push.

Overs to date: Chiefs, Bears, Saints, Texans, Rams, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins

Unders to date: 49ers, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers, Vikings

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+6): The Saints are playing for the No. 1 seed while the Panthers are just looking to hang around the wild card race. Money is on the Saints, but I’m rarely one to turn away a home dog in primetime. The Saints very well could still win this game, but look for Carolina to keep it close in an ugly back-and-forth affair.

The first lines for Week 16 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are some lines of note. The biggest line of the week has the Patriots as a 13-point favorite at home against the Bills. The closest line at this early juncture has both primetime games (Chiefs-Seahawks, Broncos-Raiders) set at 2.5 points. The biggest early move is in Bears-49ers, where the line opened at Bears -5, but has quickly moved down to Bears -3.5.

Washington @ Tennessee Titans (-10)
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-5)
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets (+3)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+4.5)
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-13)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+13.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)