The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season

Week 16 is just about a wrap, and that brings a Monday Night Football matchup featuring no playoff implications, but a heated rivalry nonetheless. The Oakland Raiders host the Denver Broncos in what could be the final football game at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Will the Raiders be able to use the emotion of the event to spring the upset?

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

I don’t even know what to say to people who bet on Saturday’s matchup between the Titans and Washington. Bad beats don’t come much worse than that game. The Titans led 19-16 and an interception with 1:22 to go seemed to ice things. The Titans ranged between 9.5 and 11 point favorites, depending on your sportsbook of choice, and the point total was 38 at kickoff. It felt like wagers were settled.

And then Malcolm Butler picked off Josh Johnson to close the game, and left point total and Washington second half bettors screaming at their TVs.

Butler picked off the pass with time expired, and the Titans leading by three. Normally we see players fall to the ground to avoid any stupid turnover that Washington might return for a game-winning score. Instead, Butler returned the pass across the field to the end zone. If you bet the under on 38, you found yourself on the losing end. If you had bet Washington as a +6 underdog in the second half, you lost your bet.

Oh, and if you took Tennessee -9.5 in the Westgate SuperContest (or at most sportsbooks early in the week), a rule change this offseason cost you the win. Prior to this season, when a team scored a “meaningless” touchdown after time expired, they still had to kick the extra point. That rule was changed in the offseason and so instead of a chance at a ten point win and that cover, the Titans walked away with a nine point win.

Talk about a bad beat!

The early slate of games was a rough one when it came to some crappy teams getting late back-door covers. The Patriots were rolling the Bills, leading 24-6 and covering the 13-point spread. With 1:08 left in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen connected with Zay Jones for a 31-yard touchdown that resulted in a 24-12 loss and Bills cover. The Browns dominated the Bengals, leading 26-3 and looking secure to cover a rare ten-point Browns spread. Instead, Cincinnati scored a touchdown, and then blocked a Browns punt to get another score and the ugly cover in a 26-18 loss. Even with the Browns improving to 7-7-1, they had to go peak Browns and blow the cover.

Patrick Mahomes has done enough to win the 2018 MVP award, but for betting purposes, this race seems far from over. The Chiefs have lost two straight still have not clinched the AFC West. They will clinch the division and home field advantage with what should be an easy win over the Oakland Raiders in Week 17, but things are a little dicey at the moment.

Meanwhile, Drew Brees and the Saints locked up home field advantage with their win over the Steelers in Week 16. Brees threw for 326 yards and a touchdown in the win, while Mahomes threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. If the Chiefs stumble against Oakland and don’t lock up home field advantage next week, could we see MVP voters hold that against Mahomes? He entered this weekend as the MVP favorite with 5/7 odds at Bovada, but Brees is right behind him at 10/11 odds. This might not be finished quite yet.

Week 16 brought in eight more win total bets cashing in. The Ravens, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Titans all went over their preseason numbers, while the Broncos, Giants, Jets, and Buccaneers all locked in the under. We are left with four teams still trying to settle their win total bets. They include the Bills (6), Bengals (6.5), Patriots (11), and Washington (7).

Overs to date: Chiefs, Bears, Saints, Texans, Rams, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Cowboys, Seahawks, Titans

Unders to date: 49ers, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers, Vikings, Cardinals, Lions, Panthers, Broncos, Giants, Jets, Buccaneers

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+3): This is a matchup of two bad football teams, but there is an x-factor to consider. The Raiders are playing what could be their last ever game in Oakland. They’re moving to Las Vegas in 2020, and are reportedly in discussions with the San Francisco Giants to play their 2019 games at AT&T Park. This could be a raucous affair, and the Raiders face a Broncos squad stumbling to the finish line. I’ll take the points.

The first lines for Week 17 have arrived by way of OddsShark, and there are a whole lot of question marks early in the week. The final week of the season brings questions as to which teams might rest starters. The Saints clinched home field in the NFC playoffs, but how much will they rest starters with a bye week coming up? As of publishing, we have five games with no line. They will eventually settle on something, but oddsmakers are waiting for more details on how the games will be approached.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (NL)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-8.5)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-7)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-7)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-13)
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington (+6.5)
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (NL)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (NL)
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (NL)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (NL)