The Vig: Winners and losers from Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season

One Sunday down, 16 more to go! The NFL finishes Week 1 with the Monday Night Football doubleheader, but in the meantime, the main course of the schedule is a wrap. It was fitting that Aaron Rodgers capped off Sunday with a wild comeback in spite of a second quarter knee injury. Rodgers returned in the third quarter to rally the Green Bay Packers from a 20-3 deficit, en route to a 24-23 win over the Chicago Bears.

Every week will bring its share of wild games, unexpected results, and plenty of money changing hands. Sports gambling is not new, but the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to legalize it opens the door for a huge expansion. And so, it’s time to keep an eye on the important news, the gut-wrenching news, the quirky news, and how we can best help you make a few bucks each week. Welcome to The Vig!

Recency bias can be a problem. You see a team play particularly well or particularly poor one week, and it impacts how you view them the next week. The Buffalo Bills might not go 0-16 this year, but it is very clear they are a bad team. They were a dumpster fire in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, getting thumped 47-3. Nathan Peterman got the starting nod, and was abysmal — he completed 5 of 18 passes for 24 yards and two interceptions. He was eventually benched for rookie Josh Allen, who was only modestly better — he finished 6 of 15 for 74 yards.

After the game, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said he would need to review the film before deciding whether Peterman or Allen will get the start in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Fortunately, for you the betting public, it won’t matter. The Bills are going to stink this season, and while they will cover at times, they are a team that is very likely to be a consistent winner for those betting against them. Lines could end up inflated at some point, but for the time being, they’re atrocious and you might as well make your money while you can.

This week it was a point total that offered the toughest finish, and it took a looooooong time to reach the 00:00 mark. Two lightning delays lasting 3 hours, 59 minutes led to the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins playing a game that lasted 7 hours, 8 minutes. It was an ugly game early that seemed assured of staying under the point total of 43.5.

And then the fourth quarter happened. The Titans tied the game at 10 in the first minute of the fourth quarter. With 20 total points and just over 14 minutes to play, the under seemed all but assured.

On the ensuing kickoff, Dolphins returner Jakeem Grant returned it 102 yards for a touchdown. After a defensive stop, the Dolphins got the ball back and Kenny Stills caught a 75-yard pass from Ryan Tannehill on the fourth play of the drive. On the ensuing kickoff, Titans returner Darius Jennings returned it 94 yards for a touchdown. The teams exchanged a pair of field goals, and the Dolphins won 27-20. Over the course of 14 plays and two special teams plays over 14 minutes, 15 seconds of playing time, the Dolphins and Titans combined to score 27 points. For over bettors, that’s what I call a bad beat.

Joey Bosa, Aaron Donald, and J.J. Watt entered the 2018 NFL season as front-runners for Defensive Player of the Year, with odds of 6/1. However, it was a few other players who jumped on the radar in Week 1.

In the 1 p.m. slot, San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (66/1 odds) had 2.5 sacks, seven tackles (three for a loss), and three quarterback hits. In the 4:25 p.m. slot, Von Miller (10/1 odds) made his case with three sacks, seven tackles (three for a loss), and four quarterback hits. On Sunday Night Football, Khalil Mack (15/2 odds) made his newfound presence in Chicago felt with authority. In limited snaps, Mack had a sack, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, an interception, and a touchdown. Imagine how good he will be once he better understands Vic Fangio’s defense?

Aaron Donald still has to play on Monday, but in the meantime, Robert Klemko offered up a solid case for Miller to take home DPOY (although as a 49ers fan, I can argue Buckner is right behind him).

How about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Playing without suspended quarterback Jameis Winston, the Bucs were a ten-point underdog on the road against the New Orleans Saints. Someone forgot to tell Ryan Fitzpatrick! The veteran quarterback completed 75 percent of his passes, finishing with 417 passing yards and four touchdowns as the Bucs won a 48-40 shootout in the Big Easy.

The Bucs are an early field goal underdog at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, according to OddsShark. This is a tough one to read. Ryan Fitzpatrick could easily fall apart in his first home game of the season, or he could roll out another three- or four-touchdown performance. I’m inclined to think he struggles in Week 2, but am hoping that recency bias moves that line down a little.

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5): The Sam Darnold era gets underway under the bright lights. There’s a slight edge in public betting on the Lions, and I’m sticking with them on this one. Darnold has Robby Anderson and some combination of Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell. The Jets will be without wide receiver Jermaine Kearse, outside linebacker Josh Martin, and safety Marcus Maye. They are at a disadvantage straight up, so add in three starters missing and I am going with the Lions.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Oakland Raiders: Considering Khalil Mack’s debut for the Chicago Bears, would anybody really be surprised to the Raiders in turn get thumped by Jared Goff and the Rams offense? Everybody is betting on the Rams, and considering Oakland’s offseason since hiring Jon Gruden, this is not remotely surprising. That being said, when the public is heavy on one side, it can be wise looking the other direction. I’m picking the Raiders to cover in a surprise.

The first lines for Week 2 have arrived by way of OddsShark. Notably, The Texans-Titans matchup has no line while we await word on Marcus Mariota’s elbow injury. The Bills line reflects just how bad Nathan Peterman & Co. were in Week 1. The lookahead line (sportsbook projections ten days prior) last week had the Chargers as a one-point favorite, and now it is at 7.5 and climbing. You usually don’t want to overreact too much to a Week 1 performance, but Nathan Peterman stinks.

The Chiefs-Steelers line will be an interesting one to follow. Kansas City was +7 on the lookahead line, and it’s down to 5.5 after Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill blew the doors off against the Chargers. I would not be surprised to see a huge chunk of money coming in on the Chiefs this week.

One game I’m staying away from will be Patriots-Jaguars. This potential playoff preview as a pick ‘em makes sense, although it was Patriots -2.5 on the lookahead line. The Jaguars defense looked strong against the New York Giants, but their offense remains a question mark. Is it enough to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots?

These Week 1 lines will change, as soon as publishing time, but we’ll keep an eye on them through the week.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (PK)
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington (-3.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (NL)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-10)
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (PK)
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-4)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears (-3)