Why Aryna Sabalenka’s style makes her the favorite in the U.S. Open

Would you rather hit the ball flat and hard but risk some unforced errors or get on top of the ball and spin everything in? Modern women’s tennis is a great evaluation of this question, specifically through its world No. 1: Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka is an excellent test case for how different shot types affect consistency. She hits the ball so flat that it can actually average a higher speed than many forehands in the men’s game. This is because Sabalenka hits with very little spin, choosing instead to smash the ball with a flat forehand reminiscent of Monica Seles, who tore up women’s tennis in the early 1990s with a pioneering flat shot. That type of power-hitting has become all the rage in women’s tennis recently, given that it is simply more reliable to hit winners as fast as possible than to play defensively and let your opponent do that. At least, that’s the theory.

That kind of power shot has allowed Sabalenka to win four hard court Grand Slams, but she hasn’t seen the same kind of success on other surfaces. Roland Garros’ clay slows the game way down, allowing for more mobility to fight off faster shots with slides and digs. Grass is technically “faster” than outdoor hardcourt, but demands a very different playstyle than the furious ball striking of the US and Australian Opens.

Sabalenka is the defending US Open champion, but she has also seen the other side of the coin of power hitting. In the 2025 French Open Final against Coco Gauff, Sabalenka looked to be in business after winning the first set but then completely melted down to the tune of 70 unforced errors. And in the moment, it felt like 200 — Sabalenka could not hit the ball over the net; she had completely lost her confidence in her flat shot and did not have the defensive spin that allows more defensive players like Iga Swiatek to survive breakdowns.

In a 2023 article about the flat shot versus more spin-based approaches, Oscar Wood at Popcorn Tennis concluded just as much: that Swiatek versus Sabalenka would probably tilt Swiatek over time given her more consistent attack. But that has not borne out in reality — since the publication of that article, Swiatek has wilted while Sabalenka has been the best player in the world. Could it be that the flat shot is analytically better even if it feels worse in the moment?

I don’t know! Without more publicly available raw data in professional tennis, it may be a while before people like me can make that kind of declarative statement. What I will say is this: often, in the history of sports analytics, the method that is most proactive is often a hidden edge, since humans default to defensive, conservative approaches in stressful situations. Flat hitting is, for all its faults, much more proactive. I can’t prove it’s better over time, but I do mostly believe it.

It’s not like Sabalenka hasn’t been dominant; they don’t just hand out Grand Slams, and for a “down year,” Sabalenka won both the Miami Open and Indian Wells, ATP 1000-level tournaments with much of the same talent pool to a slam. But for a three-time defending year-end number one? Sabalenka feels like she could stand to do even better. A title defense at the 2026 US Open would mean a lot.