If you’re wondering whether Advanced Baseline has some super-secret insight that flies in the face of conventional wisdom and will make a French Open pick no one sees coming, I’ll save you the trouble: Rafael Nadal is the overwhelming favorite, just like he has been for the last decade or so. It’s tournaments like these that make it a little disheartening to put any effort into producing quality forecasts. Why bother with advanced analytics when conventional wisdom does just fine, and the outcome seems like a foregone conclusion?
2013 French Open men’s tournament: Advanced Baseline forecast
The king is back, and somehow even a bigger favorite than you’d think. Tournament forecasts, draw analysis and unsolicited gambling advice below.
Mike Hewitt
I guess that holds true to some degree for every Grand Slam in the Big Four era, but none more so than the French Open. Advanced Baseline happened to be developed in the time of the greatest men’s clay court player ever, which makes its big-picture predictions a little less useful at Roland Garros. But the ATP still gives out lots of points (and prize money) for fourth-rounders and semi-finalists, which will have implications for Wimbledon in a month. And there are still plenty of great storylines in each mini-section of the draw, which Bill’s got covered in the regional previews. So let’s acknowledge upfront that the French Open belongs to Nadal in a way no other Slam belongs to any other player, and see what else the draw has in store.
Year in Review: Tracking the Top Four
Below is a 52-week tracking graph of the clay-adjusted AB ranks of the top four seeds from last year’s French Open until now. It’s a quick way to see what’s changed at the top of the ladder, and how it might cause things to be different this year. And in light of Murray’s withdrawal, we’ll let David Ferrer sit at the big kids’ table just this once with his No. 4 seed. (click to enlarge)
Nadal’s “decline” in this graph after Wimbledon isn’t all that real, it’s just his older results getting weighted less with no new ones to replace them as a result of his absence. That said, there were two conceivable moments this year where you could briefly put Djokovic in contention to beat Nadal at the French Open, where their lines are closest: when Nadal lost to Horacio Zeballos in February (and we weren’t sure if he was fully healthy), and when Djokovic beat Nadal in Monte Carlo. However, Nadal’s ranking has broken solidly upward in the last four weeks, and it’s safe to say he’s right back where he was a year ago. Meanwhile, Federer shows a slight but steady decline -- not enough of a fall to put him out of contention, but a decline nonetheless.
The Forecast
Generated from simulating the tournament 100,000 times, before the tournament began, using win probabilities from AB ratings.
I didn’t want it to be this high for Nadal, not just for the sake of rooting interests, but also because forecasts are most often wrong when they put too much stock in the most likely outcomes. I could be missing something, like injury or cold weather, but I can’t imagine it would make more than a five- to seven-percent difference at most. And I don’t know any other way to interpret that graph above; there’s been a sharp, late-breaking movement in Nadal’s favor from his last two tournaments, and it makes him even more of a favorite than he was just a month ago. As for the rest of the field? I’m a little worried I’m overestimating Ferrer’s chances in a potential matchup with Federer given their prior history (I have it at 55/45), but Federer’s slight decline this past year makes me think there’s reason to believe this time could be different.
| Player | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner | Expected Points |
| Rafael Nadal | 99.5% | 99.0% | 97.8% | 96.4% | 92.4% | 78.6% | 69.5% | 1616.6 |
| David Ferrer | 99.3% | 94.1% | 90.1% | 85.9% | 67.6% | 46.3% | 10.8% | 874.9 |
| Novak Djokovic | 98.8% | 97.0% | 93.6% | 88.4% | 83.9% | 18.8% | 12.1% | 820.4 |
| Roger Federer | 95.1% | 93.5% | 90.3% | 84.7% | 73.3% | 36.8% | 5.7% | 804.9 |
| Nicolas Almagro | 95.4% | 89.4% | 78.0% | 45.7% | 14.5% | 6.1% | 0.6% | 321.8 |
| Stanislas Wawrinka | 94.7% | 87.5% | 74.5% | 54.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 275.6 |
| Juan Monaco | 79.9% | 70.9% | 52.0% | 37.7% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 237.1 |
| Tomas Berdych | 70.8% | 59.6% | 47.9% | 30.5% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 227.7 |
| Richard Gasquet | 93.5% | 90.2% | 74.7% | 33.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 217.4 |
| Tommy Haas | 83.3% | 64.7% | 47.2% | 29.7% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 179.2 |
| Marin Cilic | 91.8% | 66.6% | 29.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 142.2 |
| Jeremy Chardy | 93.7% | 73.0% | 34.3% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 138.3 |
| Kevin Anderson | 92.5% | 80.4% | 49.4% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 138.1 |
| Alexandr Dolgopolov | 90.6% | 68.0% | 47.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 137.8 |
| Tommy Robredo | 92.5% | 78.4% | 27.2% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 130.2 |
| Benoit Paire | 91.4% | 81.3% | 50.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 129.9 |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 76.0% | 49.3% | 32.8% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 129.8 |
| Janko Tipsarevic | 93.5% | 52.3% | 28.5% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 123.8 |
| Gilles Simon | 76.6% | 58.4% | 37.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 116.4 |
| Fernando Verdasco | 86.4% | 44.7% | 25.1% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 110.8 |
| Kei Nishikori | 90.3% | 65.8% | 34.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 104.3 |
| Jan Hajek | 83.9% | 56.0% | 28.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 100.2 |
| Milos Raonic | 82.9% | 54.2% | 29.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 96.5 |
| Pablo Andujar | 62.3% | 40.1% | 21.6% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.9 |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber | 78.7% | 56.0% | 26.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.6 |
| Carlos Berlocq | 65.4% | 46.3% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 93.5 |
| Jarkko Nieminen | 71.5% | 33.9% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 89.1 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 82.5% | 74.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 84.6 |
| Andreas Seppi | 69.8% | 59.4% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 81.8 |
| Fabio Fognini | 89.1% | 68.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 75.7 |
| Marcel Granollers | 72.1% | 62.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 75.5 |
| Sam Querrey | 83.1% | 37.2% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.2 |
| Nikolay Davydenko | 84.4% | 45.4% | 11.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 73.2 |
| Radek Stepanek | 93.5% | 31.3% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 70.6 |
| Julian Reister | 67.9% | 30.2% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 70.3 |
| G. Garcia-Lopez | 77.1% | 24.8% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 69.1 |
| Florian Mayer | 74.4% | 42.8% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 69.1 |
| Pablo Cuevas | 87.0% | 29.5% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 67.4 |
| A. Ramos-Vinolas | 54.9% | 41.2% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.6 |
| Ernests Gulbis | 88.2% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 65.6 |
| Andrey Kuznetsov | 72.6% | 28.8% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 62.1 |
| Victor Hanescu | 72.3% | 24.6% | 12.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.7 |
| Santiago Giraldo | 76.5% | 27.8% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.0 |
| Gael Monfils | 29.2% | 20.4% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 58.7 |
| Simone Bolelli | 72.5% | 28.9% | 9.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.2 |
| Julien Benneteau | 69.1% | 36.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.0 |
| Robin Haase | 78.4% | 24.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.2 |
| Steve Darcis | 58.0% | 25.6% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.0 |
| Albert Montanes | 88.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 52.0 |
| Jerzy Janowicz | 45.1% | 32.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.7 |
| R. Bautista-Agut | 69.3% | 20.5% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.9 |
| Mikhail Youzhny | 37.7% | 21.4% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.9 |
| Horacio Zeballos | 85.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.1 |
| Paolo Lorenzi | 56.9% | 32.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.0 |
| Viktor Troicki | 70.5% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.2 |
| Joao Souza | 77.7% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.0 |
| Lukasz Kubot | 73.3% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.5 |
| Martin Klizan | 88.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.6 |
| Alex Kuznetsov | 74.7% | 11.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.3 |
| Lukas Rosol | 61.9% | 19.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.8 |
| John Isner | 34.6% | 19.4% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.6 |
| Blaz Kavcic | 64.6% | 14.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.2 |
| Michael Llodra | 42.0% | 15.4% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.5 |
| Tobias Kamke | 43.1% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.4 |
| Igor Sijsling | 55.3% | 11.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.1 |
| E. Roger-Vasselin | 56.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.6 |
| D. Gimeno-Traver | 20.1% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.1 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 51.7% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.0 |
| Leonardo Mayer | 30.2% | 21.7% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.8 |
| Rhyne Williams | 58.1% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.6 |
| D. Munoz-De La Nava | 57.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.0 |
| Evgeny Donskoy | 48.3% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.0 |
| Ivan Dodig | 56.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.7 |
| Jurgen Melzer | 44.7% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.9 |
| Feliciano Lopez | 27.9% | 20.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.8 |
| Federico Delbonis | 32.1% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.0 |
| Martin Alund | 43.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.9 |
| Aljaz Bedene | 24.0% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.8 |
| Paul-Henri Mathieu | 28.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.6 |
| Pere Riba | 38.1% | 8.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.4 |
| Lleyton Hewitt | 23.4% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.2 |
| Guido Pella | 43.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.2 |
| Richard Berankis | 30.9% | 10.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.1 |
| Michal Przysiezny | 41.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.8 |
| Somdev Devvarman | 42.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.7 |
| James Duckworth | 35.4% | 4.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.8 |
| Denis Istomin | 25.6% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.2 |
| Gilles Muller | 30.7% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.6 |
| Yen-Hsun Lu | 27.5% | 6.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.5 |
| Bernard Tomic | 27.7% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.4 |
| Jiri Vesely | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.2 |
| Ryan Harrison | 27.4% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.1 |
| Guillaume Rufin | 16.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.0 |
| Alejandro Falla | 17.5% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.9 |
| James Blake | 29.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.8 |
| Grega Zemlja | 23.5% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.7 |
| Maxime Teixeira | 26.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.5 |
| Jack Sock | 22.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.3 |
| Lucas Pouille | 25.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.6 |
| Xavier Malisse | 17.1% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.1 |
| Kenny de Schepper | 21.6% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.8 |
| Go Soeda | 22.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.6 |
| Pablo Carreno-Busta | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.5 |
| Denis Kudla | 16.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.5 |
| Lukas Lacko | 16.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.3 |
| Florent Serra | 15.6% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.0 |
| Marc Gicquel | 13.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.3 |
| Marcos Baghdatis | 8.6% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.8 |
| Sergiy Stakhovsky | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.3 |
| Andreas Beck | 10.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.3 |
| Adrian Mannarino | 13.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.2 |
| Vasek Pospisil | 14.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.2 |
| Dmitry Tursunov | 9.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.9 |
| Jesse Levine | 9.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.7 |
| R. Dutra da Silva | 11.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.4 |
| Steve Johnson | 12.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.3 |
| Michael Russell | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.2 |
| Illya Marchenko | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.1 |
| Philipp Petzschner | 8.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9 |
| Jurgen Zopp | 7.5% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8 |
| Thiemo de Bakker | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.7 |
| Benjamin Becker | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0 |
| A. Haider-Maurer | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0 |
| Nicolas Mahut | 6.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.6 |
| Nick Kyrgios | 6.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.4 |
| David Goffin | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.9 |
| Daniel Brands | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5 |
| Marinko Matosevic | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.3 |
Winners and Losers of the Draw
Comparing the expected points for each player from their specific draw to all possible draws. Full explanation here.
Poor Gael Monfils. He was all set to make his triumphant return at his home slam (currently a top 25 AB player). Then he drew a gauntlet of Tomas Berdych in round 1 and Ernests Gulbis in round 2, which just sucks for all three. Interestingly, Gulbis loses the least expected points out of the three by far. That’s because the increase in points from first to second round is proportionately higher than all other rounds, so unlucky first-round matchups have a bigger effect on your expected points. As for the winners, everyone’s been commenting on Federer’s easy draw, but his gain in expected points isn’t necessarily from where you think. Here’s a breakdown of where his change in expected points comes from broken down by each round:
| 1st Round | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner | |
| Specific Draw | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 40.9 | 263.2 | 3733 | 113.4 |
| General Draw | 0.3 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 15.1 | 51.8 | 300.8 | 184 | 78.2 |
| Specific Minus General | 0.2 | -1.0 | -3.2 | -5.1 | -18.8 | -37.6 | 189.2 | 35.2 |
His potential draw up to the semifinals is actually a little unlucky, but his expected points are more sensitive to when he drew Nadal, hence the gain in the last two rounds. Jan Hajek is the other big winner of the draw with a solid clay rating and a clear early path, making him the most likely unseeded player to make a deep run. Full luck scores for each player below:
| Player | Change in Expected Points from Draw |
| Roger Federer | 158.8 |
| Juan Monaco | 60.3 |
| Jeremy Chardy | 56.0 |
| Jan Hajek | 48.4 |
| Fernando Verdasco | 43.2 |
| Kevin Anderson | 35.2 |
| Carlos Berlocq | 33.8 |
| Pablo Cuevas | 31.6 |
| Radek Stepanek | 27.0 |
| Nikolay Davydenko | 25.6 |
| Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 22.7 |
| Andrey Kuznetsov | 22.6 |
| Tommy Haas | 22.4 |
| Alex Kuznetsov | 21.7 |
| Pablo Andujar | 21.6 |
| Gilles Simon | 21.2 |
| Jarkko Nieminen | 20.4 |
| Joao Souza | 20.2 |
| Nicolas Almagro | 16.8 |
| Roberto Bautista-Agut | 16.8 |
| Julian Reister | 16.2 |
| Blaz Kavcic | 14.7 |
| Sam Querrey | 13.7 |
| Lukasz Kubot | 13.6 |
| Simone Bolelli | 13.3 |
| Rhyne Williams | 12.6 |
| David Ferrer | 10.6 |
| Paolo Lorenzi | 10.1 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 9.8 |
| Robin Haase | 9.1 |
| Evgeny Donskoy | 8.8 |
| Viktor Troicki | 8.7 |
| Steve Darcis | 8.2 |
| Michal Przysiezny | 8.0 |
| Janko Tipsarevic | 7.6 |
| Milos Raonic | 7.4 |
| Santiago Giraldo | 7.0 |
| Victor Hanescu | 7.0 |
| Daniel Munoz-De La Nava | 6.0 |
| Marin Cilic | 5.9 |
| Lucas Pouille | 5.7 |
| James Duckworth | 4.9 |
| Horacio Zeballos | 4.4 |
| Tommy Robredo | 4.2 |
| Julien Benneteau | 4.2 |
| Tobias Kamke | 4.0 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 4.0 |
| Somdev Devvarman | 3.5 |
| Alexandr Dolgopolov | 3.2 |
| Go Soeda | 3.1 |
| Gilles Muller | 1.8 |
| Maxime Teixeira | 1.4 |
| Richard Berankis | 1.1 |
| Florian Mayer | 0.7 |
| Michael Llodra | 0.2 |
| Igor Sijsling | -0.3 |
| Edouard Roger-Vasselin | -0.4 |
| Lukas Rosol | -0.4 |
| Ryan Harrison | -0.8 |
| Lukas Lacko | -1.2 |
| Adrian Mannarino | -1.3 |
| Nick Kyrgios | -1.3 |
| Jurgen Melzer | -1.9 |
| James Blake | -2.2 |
| Martin Alund | -2.6 |
| Denis Kudla | -3.0 |
| Florent Serra | -3.0 |
| Vasek Pospisil | -3.2 |
| Alejandro Falla | -3.3 |
| Jack Sock | -3.3 |
| Denis Istomin | -3.5 |
| Yen-Hsun Lu | -3.5 |
| Kenny de Schepper | -3.5 |
| Lleyton Hewitt | -3.9 |
| Michael Russell | -3.9 |
| Illya Marchenko | -3.9 |
| Nicolas Mahut | -4.0 |
| Martin Klizan | -4.1 |
| Benjamin Becker | -4.2 |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber | -4.5 |
| Pere Riba | -5.1 |
| Leonardo Mayer | -5.1 |
| Federico Delbonis | -5.3 |
| Grega Zemlja | -5.4 |
| Feliciano Lopez | -5.4 |
| Xavier Malisse | -5.6 |
| Philipp Petzschner | -6.0 |
| Marc Gicquel | -6.6 |
| Guido Pella | -7.4 |
| Ivan Dodig | -7.4 |
| Benoit Paire | -7.8 |
| Marcel Granollers | -7.8 |
| Jesse Levine | -7.8 |
| Jiri Vesely | -7.8 |
| Andreas Beck | -8.1 |
| Bernard Tomic | -8.1 |
| Steve Johnson | -8.3 |
| Jurgen Zopp | -9.1 |
| Rogerio Dutra da Silva | -9.2 |
| Richard Gasquet | -9.6 |
| Sergiy Stakhovsky | -9.9 |
| Paul-Henri Mathieu | -10.1 |
| Dmitry Tursunov | -10.7 |
| Guillaume Rufin | -10.8 |
| Marcos Baghdatis | -11.3 |
| Marinko Matosevic | -11.9 |
| Kei Nishikori | -12.4 |
| Aljaz Bedene | -12.8 |
| Andreas Seppi | -13.1 |
| Ernests Gulbis | -13.3 |
| Andreas Haider-Maurer | -13.9 |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | -14.3 |
| Albert Montanes | -16.8 |
| Albert Ramos-Vinolas | -17.4 |
| Daniel Gimeno-Traver | -18.2 |
| David Goffin | -18.2 |
| John Isner | -18.3 |
| Thiemo de Bakker | -19.2 |
| Mikhail Youzhny | -21.8 |
| Pablo Carreno-Busta | -27.7 |
| Fabio Fognini | -28.1 |
| Novak Djokovic | -30.3 |
| Daniel Brands | -32.6 |
| Jerzy Janowicz | -49.2 |
| Stanislas Wawrinka | -63.5 |
| Rafael Nadal | -65.3 |
| Gael Monfils | -73.9 |
| Tomas Berdych | -115.8 |
Food For Thought
Nadal's prolonged absence means he hasn't had as much of a chance to accumulate points this year, so he's the fourth overall seed. A lot of people disagree with his placement, claiming he deserves the No. 1 overall because he's clearly the best clay-court player in the field and that putting him at No. 3 could result in a potential Nadal/Federer or Nadal/Djokovic matchup earlier than it "should." And I put "should" in quotation marks, because that implies a value judgment on the purpose of seeding that's not nearly as clear-cut as some people are making it out to be.
There are roughly two philosophies on how to seed players in a tournament. To most, they should be based on either prediction, where you seed the players in order of their likelihood of winning the tournament and thereby ensure a "balanced" bracket, or on accomplishment, where your seed is based on your regular season performance. Seeding a tennis tournament based on prediction, i.e. putting Nadal at No. 1, is more problematic than you might think in a sport where participation in tournaments is voluntary.
As a hypothetical, ask yourself: If Nadal wins the French Open this year, where would you seed him next year if he didn't play another tournament until the 2014 French Open? He'd have done everything in his power to prove he's the best clay player and is therefore deserving of another No. 1 overall seed, but would it still be "fair" for him to sit out the whole year and be handed a No. 1 seed just because he's the most likely to win? This deserves a lot more discussion down the road, because there are good arguments for seeding on both prediction and accomplishment, but Nadal getting a No. 3 isn't as offensive as you might think.
Favorite Bets
Your Bovada account that you haven’t looked at since football season ended? It has a tennis section too. Instant rooting interest! Here are my favorite bets:
Head-to-head, round 1:
Alex Kuznetsov (-150) over Lucas Pouille
Carlos Berlocq (-120) over John Isner
Pablo Andujar (-103) over Mikhail Youzhny
Simone Bolelli (-150) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu
Paolo Lorenzi (+116) over Tobias Kamke
Favorite futures:
Rafael Nadal (-125) to win outright (sigh...)
David Ferrer (25-1) to win outright
Final Thoughts
How much of a sure thing can you ever be in a tournament where you have to win seven matches in a row? Seventy percent is ridiculously high, enough to the point where I’m worried about putting all of my eggs in one basket, even if that basket is the best clay-court player of all time. As potentially irresponsible as it may be to put that much faith in the favorite, though, I think it’s even more irresponsible to not reconcile that with the evidence the rest of the field has shown as of late. Djokovic’s stumbled on clay, Federer’s declined and Ferrer remains a peg below. Shouldn’t that information influence the forecast?
Maybe you buy into the narrative of contenders elevating their game for Big Moments, shaking off their prior losses and bringing their best. It’s certainly something Advanced Baseline doesn’t account for, and maybe it’s real enough where the model is flawed for forecasting Grand Slams. But given the choice, I’ll always defer to the evidence over the narrative, and the evidence says Nadal has surged when others have faltered, making him the dominant favorite. So go watch all the other matches instead; if you need me, I’ll be rooting for Kevin Anderson to keep the Big Ten’s lead in the BCS standings.
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