Single-elimination tournaments for individual sports are an interesting clash of two competing schools of sports fandom. In most other individual sports, the biggest drivers of interest are usually athletes like Tiger Woods and Michael Phelps dominating their entire fields by themselves, which works great for sports like golf and swimming where no two players are directly heads-up against one another. On the other hand, the single-elimination tournament format is great for inducing chaos and unpredictability, where underdogs can go on a lucky run and favorites are always one bad day from going home early.
2013 French Open women’s tournament: Advanced Baseline forecast
It’s the most wide open Grand Slam of the year -- a nice counter-balance if you’re suffering from Rafatigue. Tournament forecasts, draw analysis and unsolicited gambling advice below.
Jasper Juinen
Tennis is the only major sport where both of these somewhat contradictory elements are in play, which makes for an interesting question: Which would you rather see at a Grand Slam: individual dominance or anarchy? If you prefer the former, the men’s side of the French Open will be on its ninth iteration of Nadal’s reign of terror and shows no sign of slowing down. If you prefer the latter, though, the women’s side is the most wide open of any of the Grand Slams this year -- or at least what passes for wide open in a top-heavy sport.
The top women’s players don’t have nearly as much of a clay-specialist presence as the men’s side does. There are only four women’s players in the top 25 who are at their best on clay according to Advanced Baseline ratings (and only two in the top 10), as opposed to eight in the men’s top 25 and four in the top 10. This has a flattening effect on the field, where the top five women are playing the equivalent of a road game every match and are a lot more vulnerable to an upset.
In addition, the players in the bottom half of the top 10 have faltered a bit in clay events leading up to the French Open, so the top isn’t quite heavy as it was just two months ago. Combine all of this with the best-of-three-sets format, and one should probably expect the unexpected.
Year in Review: Tracking the Top Four
Below is a 52-week tracking graph of the clay-adjusted AB ranks of the top four seeds from last year’s French Open until now. It’s a quick way to see what’s changed at the top of the ladder, and how it might cause things to be different this year. (click to enlarge)
After Rome and Madrid, Serena has really separated herself from the pack. It’s really difficult to get that kind of separation at the top in just a month, which illustrates how dominant she’s been on clay in her most recent surge. Meanwhile, Azarenka’s inconsistency leaves her a little bit down from where she was a year ago, and Radwanksa has plummeted. Even though she’s roughly the same in the official WTA standings, don’t be fooled: She’s not nearly the threat she was just a year ago.
The Forecast
Generated from simulating the tournament 100,000 times, before the tournament began, using win probabilities from AB ratings.
Like I said before, “wide open” doesn’t quite mean the same thing in tennis as it does in something like the NCAA Tournament. The top three favorites have a collective 80 perent chance of winning, as opposed to a collective 57 percent chance from this year’s wide-open basketball tournament. As much as Serena has surged this month, this forecast is a reminder that it’s difficult for anyone not named Rafael Nadal to win seven tennis matches in a row, especially on clay, and there’s a better than 50 percent chance that Serena will not win this tournament.
As far as potential unseeded players that could make a deep run, Kaia Kanepi is nicely set up to capitalize on her recent success this week in Brussels, and Simona Halep is set to do some damage if she can get past a tough first-round matchup.
| Player | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner | Expected Points |
| Serena Williams | 96.9% | 94.6% | 89.8% | 82.7% | 73.6% | 60.2% | 39.0% | 1181.4 |
| Maria Sharapova | 95.5% | 90.7% | 86.9% | 77.9% | 63.9% | 43.6% | 25.4% | 945.0 |
| Victoria Azarenka | 89.5% | 85.9% | 77.1% | 70.0% | 55.1% | 31.0% | 16.3% | 753.2 |
| Sara Errani | 94.8% | 81.2% | 64.6% | 47.0% | 31.5% | 12.0% | 4.8% | 432.1 |
| Samantha Stosur | 88.1% | 76.9% | 57.2% | 40.4% | 14.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 303.9 |
| Ana Ivanovic | 89.2% | 73.4% | 56.4% | 32.9% | 17.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 283.9 |
| Agnieszka Radwanska | 90.2% | 75.9% | 51.4% | 31.3% | 15.6% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 268.3 |
| Kaia Kanepi | 76.6% | 65.2% | 43.5% | 27.6% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 228.5 |
| Na Li | 73.4% | 55.4% | 39.6% | 23.6% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 201.1 |
| Maria Kirilenko | 91.9% | 66.8% | 34.9% | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 174.1 |
| Venus Williams | 78.2% | 65.1% | 33.2% | 17.8% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 169.9 |
| Angelique Kerber | 70.3% | 54.4% | 36.2% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 167.8 |
| Petra Kvitova | 81.9% | 57.5% | 35.9% | 17.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 154.5 |
| Roberta Vinci | 90.2% | 67.6% | 46.9% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 154.3 |
| Dominika Cibulkova | 77.0% | 66.0% | 45.4% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 154.1 |
| Simona Halep | 53.8% | 48.3% | 33.8% | 15.3% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 153.4 |
| Julia Goerges | 83.8% | 67.4% | 27.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 130.3 |
| Yaroslava Shvedova | 85.8% | 56.9% | 25.7% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 126.3 |
| Jelena Jankovic | 69.8% | 52.8% | 23.4% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 121.3 |
| Svetlana Kuznetsova | 50.5% | 41.1% | 26.9% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 119.4 |
| Caroline Wozniacki | 65.0% | 51.8% | 26.1% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 118.6 |
| Nadezda Petrova | 73.6% | 53.8% | 24.8% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 118.5 |
| Carla Suarez Navarro | 46.2% | 40.8% | 26.7% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 116.2 |
| Ekaterina Makarova | 49.5% | 40.1% | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 115.2 |
| Lucie Safarova | 61.9% | 46.4% | 26.5% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 115.0 |
| Varvara Lepchenko | 77.7% | 43.5% | 20.8% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 103.9 |
| Romina Oprandi | 75.8% | 42.7% | 20.5% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 101.7 |
| Sabine Lisicki | 79.0% | 48.1% | 15.2% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 99.3 |
| Flavia Pennetta | 59.6% | 36.8% | 25.3% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 90.3 |
| Alize Cornet | 85.4% | 48.2% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 87.4 |
| Francesca Schiavone | 75.8% | 36.3% | 22.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 87.1 |
| Petra Cetkovska | 82.2% | 46.9% | 20.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 85.9 |
| Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor | 82.7% | 42.2% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 84.8 |
| Paula Ormaechea | 81.7% | 36.2% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 79.1 |
| M. Duque-Marino | 76.4% | 37.8% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 71.9 |
| Sloane Stephens | 56.7% | 34.8% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 70.7 |
| A. Pavlyuchenkova | 67.8% | 36.9% | 15.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 70.3 |
| Marion Bartoli | 60.0% | 35.7% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 67.7 |
| Shuai Peng | 64.0% | 26.1% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 66.3 |
| Christina McHale | 72.0% | 23.5% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 64.5 |
| Irina-Camelia Begu | 62.8% | 33.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 63.6 |
| Lucie Hradecka | 69.5% | 25.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 62.6 |
| Madison Keys | 67.6% | 25.8% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 56.7 |
| Jamie Hampton | 38.1% | 24.7% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 54.8 |
| B. Mattek-Sands | 55.3% | 17.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 54.2 |
| Garbine Muguruza | 65.6% | 22.3% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 53.6 |
| Alexandra Cadantu | 55.3% | 24.0% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 53.1 |
| Kirsten Flipkens | 40.4% | 21.4% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 51.9 |
| Mallory Burdette | 68.4% | 16.1% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.3 |
| Galina Voskoboeva | 59.6% | 19.6% | 9.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 50.9 |
| Jie Zheng | 54.0% | 33.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.1 |
| Chanelle Scheepers | 59.6% | 14.9% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 49.4 |
| Karin Knapp | 43.3% | 23.8% | 10.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 49.3 |
| Laura Robson | 35.0% | 23.8% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 48.7 |
| Sorana Cirstea | 51.2% | 30.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 48.3 |
| Yanina Wickmayer | 58.4% | 18.4% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.9 |
| M. Rybarikova | 65.4% | 14.4% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.2 |
| Ayumi Morita | 60.3% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 46.8 |
| Kiki Bertens | 48.8% | 27.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 45.4 |
| Virginie Razzano | 64.0% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.1 |
| Melanie Oudin | 58.8% | 25.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.0 |
| Mona Barthel | 29.7% | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 44.0 |
| Monica Niculescu | 53.5% | 23.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.0 |
| B. Zahlavova Strycova | 58.1% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.9 |
| Olga Govortsova | 40.0% | 21.0% | 7.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.5 |
| Vesna Dolonts | 46.0% | 26.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.9 |
| L. Dominguez-Lino | 44.7% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 41.6 |
| Vania King | 44.7% | 17.4% | 6.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.4 |
| Eugenie Bouchard | 60.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.3 |
| A. Medina Garrigues | 26.6% | 13.9% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 38.7 |
| Shelby Rogers | 64.3% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.6 |
| Marina Erakovic | 55.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.4 |
| Dinah Pfizenmaier | 52.7% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.9 |
| Daniela Hantuchova | 30.3% | 17.6% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.2 |
| Johanna Larsson | 46.5% | 18.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.2 |
| Lauren Davis | 51.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.1 |
| Heather Watson | 50.5% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.4 |
| Annika Beck | 63.0% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.3 |
| Klara Zakopalova | 23.4% | 14.8% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 35.8 |
| Stefanie Voegele | 49.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.7 |
| Kristina Mladenovic | 48.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.3 |
| Silvia Soler-Espinosa | 37.2% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.9 |
| Mandy Minella | 47.3% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.6 |
| Grace Min | 40.4% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3 |
| K. Anna Schmiedlova | 41.7% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3 |
| Camila Giorgi | 36.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.2 |
| Mathilde Johansson | 40.4% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.1 |
| Tamira Paszek | 41.2% | 14.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32.0 |
| Lesya Tsurenko | 23.0% | 14.7% | 5.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.9 |
| Elena Baltacha | 44.1% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.0 |
| Bojana Jovanovski | 41.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.8 |
| Andrea Hlavackova | 32.2% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.1 |
| Yuliya Beygelzimer | 51.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30.1 |
| Monica Puig | 26.4% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.7 |
| Yulia Putintseva | 39.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.6 |
| Elena Vesnina | 10.5% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 28.8 |
| Caroline Garcia | 48.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.4 |
| Urszula Radwanska | 21.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.3 |
| Karolina Pliskova | 34.4% | 7.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9 |
| Claire Feuerstein | 36.0% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.7 |
| Misaki Doi | 32.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.5 |
| Tsvetana Pironkova | 39.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.4 |
| Ashleigh Barty | 30.5% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.6 |
| Pauline Parmentier | 34.6% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.5 |
| Elina Svitolina | 24.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.2 |
| Sandra Zahlavova | 37.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.2 |
| Irena Pavlovic | 35.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.2 |
| Donna Vekic | 31.6% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.1 |
| Jana Cepelova | 28.0% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 23.3 |
| Melinda Czink | 24.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.9 |
| Mirjana Lucic | 22.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.6 |
| Kristyna Pliskova | 23.6% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.7 |
| Aravane Rezai | 18.1% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.4 |
| Sofia Arvidsson | 21.0% | 6.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.3 |
| Zuzana Kucova | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.1 |
| Kimiko Date-Krumm | 11.9% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.4 |
| Olga Puchkova | 17.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.7 |
| Tatjana Malek | 18.3% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.4 |
| Julia Glushko | 17.3% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9 |
| Coco Vandeweghe | 14.2% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.1 |
| Petra Martic | 10.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.1 |
| Maria Joao Koehler | 14.6% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.5 |
| Shahar Peer | 9.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.2 |
| S. Foretz Gacon | 9.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0 |
| Su-Wei Hsieh | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.4 |
| Nina Bratchikova | 8.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.7 |
| Anna Tatishvili | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.8 |
| Arantxa Rus | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.7 |
Winners and Losers of the Draw
Comparing the expected points for each player from their specific draw to all possible draws. Full explanation here.
It could’ve been even more open, but the draw was unbelievably beneficial to the top three favorites. Usually you’d expect one of the three to draw the short stick, but they somehow all benefited. Sharapova has a cakewalk to the quarterfinals, and Azarenka benefits from Na Li drawing the unluckiest path; there’s a significant chance Azarenka won’t even face her. Meanwhile, Serena benefitted a lot from drawing Radwanska instead of Azarenka in her quarter, and is likelier to face Sara Errani anyway. On the flip side, it’s nice to see a qualifier get a stroke of good luck. Mariana Duque-Marino drew a very winnable first round against Kristyna Pliskova (a shockingly low 176th in AB rankings) instead of being a typical cannon-fodder offering. Kaia Kanepi and Petra Cetkovska are the best-positioned unseeded players to make a deep run, since they were dangerous to begin with and got a favorable draw to boot. Full luck scores for each player below:
| Player | Change in Expected Points from Draw |
| Serena Williams | 124.8 |
| Ana Ivanovic | 58.7 |
| Victoria Azarenka | 37.6 |
| Mariana Duque-Marino | 33.8 |
| Sara Errani | 33.1 |
| Petra Cetkovska | 32.5 |
| Maria Sharapova | 32.0 |
| Kaia Kanepi | 31.2 |
| Francesca Schiavone | 30.2 |
| Julia Goerges | 28.3 |
| Venus Williams | 23.4 |
| Roberta Vinci | 21.1 |
| Romina Oprandi | 18.4 |
| Flavia Pennetta | 18.3 |
| Virginie Razzano | 16.4 |
| Paula Ormaechea | 16.4 |
| Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor | 14.6 |
| Melanie Oudin | 14.5 |
| Yaroslava Shvedova | 13.8 |
| Shelby Rogers | 12.1 |
| Marina Erakovic | 11.5 |
| Jie Zheng | 11.1 |
| Christina McHale | 10.5 |
| Magdalena Rybarikova | 10.0 |
| Barbora Zahlavova Strycova | 9.6 |
| Madison Keys | 8.9 |
| Dominika Cibulkova | 8.7 |
| Olga Govortsova | 8.4 |
| Galina Voskoboeva | 8.2 |
| Mallory Burdette | 8.1 |
| Vesna Dolonts | 7.7 |
| Elena Baltacha | 7.5 |
| Garbine Muguruza | 7.3 |
| Annika Beck | 6.9 |
| Alize Cornet | 6.4 |
| Marion Bartoli | 5.8 |
| Alexandra Cadantu | 5.8 |
| Dinah Pfizenmaier | 5.7 |
| Claire Feuerstein | 5.7 |
| Varvara Lepchenko | 5.2 |
| Irena Pavlovic | 4.8 |
| Simona Halep | 4.3 |
| Bojana Jovanovski | 4.1 |
| Mandy Minella | 3.7 |
| Chanelle Scheepers | 3.5 |
| Yanina Wickmayer | 3.3 |
| Lucie Hradecka | 2.9 |
| Yuliya Beygelzimer | 2.6 |
| Sandra Zahlavova | 2.5 |
| Kristyna Pliskova | 2.3 |
| Caroline Garcia | 2.2 |
| Irina-Camelia Begu | 2.0 |
| Tamira Paszek | 1.9 |
| Shuai Peng | 1.7 |
| Vania King | 1.5 |
| Grace Min | 1.1 |
| Monica Niculescu | 1.0 |
| Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1.0 |
| Pauline Parmentier | 0.6 |
| Andrea Hlavackova | 0.5 |
| Lauren Davis | -0.1 |
| Johanna Larsson | -0.1 |
| Svetlana Kuznetsova | -0.7 |
| Stefanie Voegele | -0.8 |
| Heather Watson | -0.8 |
| Kristina Mladenovic | -0.9 |
| Olga Puchkova | -1.0 |
| Donna Vekic | -1.3 |
| Karin Knapp | -1.5 |
| Karolina Anna Schmiedlova | -1.5 |
| Karolina Pliskova | -1.7 |
| Misaki Doi | -1.8 |
| Melinda Czink | -2.0 |
| Samantha Stosur | -2.4 |
| Mathilde Johansson | -2.5 |
| Zuzana Kucova | -2.8 |
| Eugenie Bouchard | -3.2 |
| Maria Joao Koehler | -3.5 |
| Kiki Bertens | -3.7 |
| Tatjana Malek | -3.9 |
| Julia Glushko | -4.3 |
| Jana Cepelova | -4.4 |
| Stephanie Foretz Gacon | -4.4 |
| Tsvetana Pironkova | -4.5 |
| Laura Robson | -5.2 |
| Lesya Tsurenko | -5.2 |
| Sabine Lisicki | -5.3 |
| Silvia Soler-Espinosa | -5.6 |
| Nina Bratchikova | -5.6 |
| Ashleigh Barty | -5.9 |
| Coco Vandeweghe | -6.0 |
| Mirjana Lucic | -7.0 |
| Camila Giorgi | -7.3 |
| Elina Svitolina | -7.3 |
| Maria Kirilenko | -7.6 |
| Sofia Arvidsson | -7.9 |
| Ayumi Morita | -8.7 |
| Yulia Putintseva | -9.6 |
| Monica Puig | -9.6 |
| Shahar Peer | -9.8 |
| Arantxa Rus | -10.2 |
| Urszula Radwanska | -10.2 |
| Petra Martic | -10.4 |
| Aravane Rezai | -11.2 |
| Bethanie Mattek-Sands | -12.6 |
| Jamie Hampton | -12.7 |
| Daniela Hantuchova | -12.8 |
| Lourdes Dominguez-Lino | -14.3 |
| Kimiko Date-Krumm | -14.9 |
| Sorana Cirstea | -15.4 |
| Sloane Stephens | -15.4 |
| Kirsten Flipkens | -15.9 |
| Mona Barthel | -16.1 |
| Lucie Safarova | -16.2 |
| Anna Tatishvili | -18.4 |
| Agnieszka Radwanska | -18.6 |
| Caroline Wozniacki | -19.0 |
| Su-Wei Hsieh | -19.7 |
| Jelena Jankovic | -23.7 |
| Nadezda Petrova | -25.4 |
| Anabel Medina Garrigues | -28.9 |
| Petra Kvitova | -32.2 |
| Elena Vesnina | -33.1 |
| Ekaterina Makarova | -36.3 |
| Klara Zakopalova | -42.5 |
| Carla Suarez Navarro | -43.0 |
| Angelique Kerber | -47.3 |
| Na Li | -74.0 |
Food For Thought
The two most likely finals are Williams-Sharapova (Serena is 13-2 in this series) and Williams-Azarenka (Serena: 11-2). If either of those finals were to happen, Advanced Baseline will perhaps underrate Serena’s chances of winning. Historically, AB has Serena’s expected win total, the sum of all her win probabilities against Sharapova and Azarenka, at about 8-9 wins each, so she’s outperformed AB’s historical expectations.
In general, when a player or team begins to outperform a model’s expectations, there are two explanations: They’ve been lucky, or there’s something the model’s not capturing. In other sports, like baseball and football, there are good supplementary metrics to identify instances of good or bad luck, like Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) or fumble recovery rate, but there aren’t a lot of good ones in tennis to help see if Serena’s gotten lucky in her matchups (which deserves a post all by itself). However, I’m more inclined to believe there is in fact something AB isn’t capturing that will affect Serena’s heads-up record down the road: her heads-up record itself.
When Serena beat Sharapova in Miami earlier this year, a lot was written about Sharapova’s confidence, or possible lack thereof, heading into the final. Sharapova had to know she was an underdog, and according to plenty, you could see that lack of confidence negatively affecting her play. Normally, I’d say this kind of analysis is the same tea-leaf reading that also asserts statistically dubious claims like “Player X Is Clutch” or “Team Y Has All The Momentum.” But in an individual sport like tennis, I think a player’s mental toughness is not only very real, but it also has a greater effect on the outcome than in team sports, where success depends less on a single individual. So if toughness/confidence is a real thing, is there any way we can measure it?
Consider the Serena/Sharapova example. Let’s say you believe Sharapova went into her final match afraid to play Serena because of her 2-12 lifetime record. At what point does their head-to-head record begin to negatively affect Sharapova’s confidence: 2-6? 2-8? 2-10? Is her confidence level against Serena also influenced by her confidence level against other players, i.e. if she played really well in all matches leading up to the final? And do other players like Azarenka and Li Na also have their confidence affected by their prior record against Serena? If so, how can you tell if they’re more or less affected than Sharapova?
Attempting to quantify all of this is an awfully tall order -- maybe it can’t be reliably incorporated into a model, and that’s just a permanent limitation of AB. But if it can be done, it’d probably be easier to start by process of elimination and figure out better ways to measure luck in tennis. The more results we can definitely identify as lucky, the better understanding we’ll have of what to look for when trying to quantify something as difficult as confidence and mental toughness.
Favorite Bets
Your Bovada account that you haven’t looked at since football season ended? It has a tennis section too. Instant rooting interest! Here are my favorite bets:
Round 1 head-to-head:
Johanna Larsson (+200) vs. Monica Niculescu
Mallory Burdette (-140) vs. Donna Vekic
Flavia Pennetta (-115) vs. Kirsten Flipkens
Caroline Wozniacki (+110) vs. Laura Robson
Irina-Camelia Begu (+110) vs. Silvia Soler-Espinosa
Favorite futures:
Maria Sharapova (+485) to win outright
Kaia Kanepi (250-1) to win outright
Simona Halep (375-1) to win outright
Final Thoughts
I don’t know if we’ll ever get a Grand Slam that is truly wide open in the sense with which most people would associate: a dozen legitimate contenders, landmines at every step and a true sense of everyone having a shot.
As fun as it is to try and predict the future, I’d love a tournament where I look at the field and say I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen, because uncertainty makes sports so fun. It probably won’t get any more wide open than this for the rest of the year, since Serena and Sharapova will be even bigger favorites at Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open’s hard court plays to the strengths of the top 10. Still, a one-in-five chance of a champion outside the top three isn’t all that bad, especially in light of the Rafa-like surge Serena’s had in the past couple weeks. Anyone who’s played poker knows that aces lose to kings enough that one-in-five isn’t insignificant; so who’s to say this isn’t the year in which the 2-outer won’t hit?
See More:
