After a couple of rain delays, the first three rounds of the French Open are finally in the books. Below are updated Advanced Baseline forecast tables for both the men’s and the women’s sides.
2013 French Open: Advanced Baseline updated forecast
Tracking the changes in the draws and the rankings.
Clive Brunskill
Men
| Player | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner |
| Rafael Nadal | 98.3% | 92.4% | 74.5% | 63.3% |
| Novak Djokovic | 93.9% | 88.2% | 23.1% | 14.8% |
| David Ferrer | 94.0% | 73.3% | 49.2% | 12.8% |
| Roger Federer | 90.3% | 77.4% | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Nicolas Almagro | 68.3% | 20.3% | 8.9% | 1.1% |
| Stanislas Wawrinka | 65.0% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 75.1% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Robredo | 31.7% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Richard Gasquet | 35.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kevin Anderson | 6.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kei Nishikori | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gilles Simon | 9.7% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Haas | 63.2% | 6.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Viktor Troicki | 24.9% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber | 6.1% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mikhail Youzhny | 36.9% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Nadal’s slightly lower odds from the initial forecast are due to his subpar play in the first three rounds, which have weakened his AB rating. A drop of six to seven percent feels about right to me — as Bill Connelly pointed out earlier, Nadal’s slow start may be due to transient factors, such as cold weather, that won’t last through next week. Dropping his odds any further would be an overreaction to a temporary speed bump.
Women
| Player | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Winner |
| Serena Williams | 85.5% | 72.0% | 55.0% | 33.6% |
| Maria Sharapova | 89.0% | 75.6% | 49.1% | 28.7% |
| Victoria Azarenka | 86.4% | 70.4% | 37.5% | 19.8% |
| Sara Errani | 73.5% | 45.1% | 18.4% | 7.4% |
| Ana Ivanovic | 49.9% | 22.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% |
| Agnieszka Radwanska | 50.1% | 22.4% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Jelena Jankovic | 63.5% | 14.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Angelique Kerber | 52.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Svetlana Kuznetsova | 47.8% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Maria Kirilenko | 55.0% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Roberta Vinci | 14.5% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Bethanie Mattek-Sands | 45.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Carla Suarez Navarro | 26.5% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Jamie Hampton | 36.5% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sloane Stephens | 11.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Francesca Schiavone | 13.7% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Serena has maintained her level of dominance in the early rounds, so why are her odds lower than when they started? At the beginning of the tournament, I predicted there was a high chance of upsets, and that’s held fairly true so far: a quarter of the remaining field is unseeded, and only nine of the remaining 16 players are ranked in the top 16. The primary beneficiaries have been Sharapova and Azarenka, whose draws have improved with eliminations to players such as Li Na and Petra Kvitova making their path easier. Their gain is Williams’ loss, as she is more likely to face either of the two in the final than when the tournament began.
More importantly, a quarter of the remaining field is American and there are no French players left, locking in the longest-lasting score at 4-0 for the away team.
It rained all week at Waterloo, too. I think we’ve found their weakness.
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