It never seems like there’s enough time between the French Open and Wimbledon. Not only is the timing itiself short, but the abrupt shift to the flash-in-the-pan grass season doesn’t allow for a great contextualization of the clay season results and what they mean for Wimbledon.
2014 Wimbledon championships: Is this Federer’s best chance at an 18th slam title?
With the French Open solidly in the rearview mirror, it’s time to see how the top contenders are looking for this year’s Wimbledon championships. The list isn’t much of a surprise. Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams lead the way, but this might be Roger Federer’s best remaining chance at Slam No. 18.
Thomas Starke
Fortunately, this is where surface-specific rankings can help clarify the picture. The contenders for Wimbledon are largely the same as last year; assessing their current level is just a matter of properly digesting their results. Let’s take a look at where they all stand.
Below are 52-week tracking graphs of the grass-adjusted Advanced Baseline ranks of the top contenders from last year's Wimbledon until now. It's a quick way to see what's changed at the top of the ladder, and how and why it might be different this year.
Novak Djokovic is well ahead of the pack at this point compared to the rest of the field. While it’s true that he hasn’t won a major in 18 months, he’s done everything but that -- three slam finals appearances, six Masters 1000 titles -- and cruised against the contenders in the 2013 World Tour Finals. That level of consistency matches his steady ascent in the tracker graph, and it’s a level the rest of the Big Four haven’t shown.
Speaking of those other guys, is Roger Federer next in line? That seems like the height of insanity after last year’s Wimbledon upset, but last summer looks more and more like a temporary, six-week rough patch in hindsight. Federer’s had a much better spring than Nadal (who lost three entire matches during clay season!) and Murray (who hasn’t made a final yet this year). All of this culminated last week with Federer winning his grass tuneup tournament in Halle, while both Murray and Nadal crashed out of theirs early. I have some outside hope that there’s real reason to believe Federer has another finals run in him. Grass is particularly nice to older players in general, let alone arguably the greatest grass court player of all-time.
How big of a concern is Serena Williams’ second-round French Open exit -- a blowout loss to Garbine Muguruza -- for her Wimbledon chances? That depends on how much you think the loss was due to her relative clay-court weakness and how much was due to general poor play. I’m inclined to lean towards the former; I was much more bearish on her French Open odds to begin with since clay has always been her worst surface. In addition, the tracker graph has a lot of her hard-court results baked in, which are much more comparable to the fast surface she’ll be playing this week.
The field hasn’t done quite enough to catch up to her level either. Maria Sharapova had an upset loss of her own at Wimbledon last year, and she missed a lot of time from rehabbing her shoulder. I don’t think the injury will necessarily be a factor, but that leaves a very thin data-driven case for her being a major threat.
Simona Halep continues to be the most likely “next in line” player. Her relative youth gives her more upside than fellow contender Li Na, and she notched two grass-court wins in late June last year. AB doesn’t put her at Williams’ or Sharapova’s level quite yet, though. That’s partly due to a nasty mid-2012 losing streak that slightly drags down her performance ranking. Those matches will come off the books soon, probably inching her closer to Sharapova’s level by the U.S. Open.
See More:
