Last year. Advanced Baseline went out on a limb and tabbed Roger Federer as the favorite to win Wimbledon. That did not end so well. However, not only do the AB ranks look at that loss as a little fluky, but they also think Federer’s rebounded pretty well in the interim. In addition, Federer also got a really good draw this year (more on that below). It’s all enough to have him as a co-favorite along with Novak Djokovic, representing what’s probably his last good shot to win a Slam.
2014 Wimbledon Men’s Forecast: Can Federer nab No. 18?
Play is underway at the All-England Club. Last year’s Wimbledon was the most upset-filled Slam in recent memory; how does this year compare? And can Roger Federer take advantage of what might be his last great shot at Slam No. 18?
Al Bello
Forecast and Draw Analysis
Generated from Advanced Baseline win probabilities by simulating the tournament 100,000 times. The round probabilities, along with each player’s expected points and draw effects, are shown below. Full methodology explained here. Dashboarding provided by John Mathis.
To see each individual player’s outlook, select their name from the drop-down list below.
Contenders
Federer’s draw was favorable enough that he has more expected points than Djokovic, but a slightly lower chance to win. That can only happen if you have a really easy draw. Djokovic’s chances are getting dragged down by a projected second-rounder with Radek Stepanek, the most dangerous unseeded player in the tournament. He doesn’t play a lot of tournaments at this age, but unlike the ATP formula, AB ranks don’t care about volume, and they say he’s very good in the few tournaments he does play. Meanwhile, Nadal and Murray stumbled a bit in their grass court tuneups and didn’t get enough help from the draw to boost them into the upper tier. The Djokovic-Federer final is the match to hold out for.
Unseeded Dark Horses
- Lleyton Hewitt: I don’t know why no one’s hyping this more. He won the seed lottery, drawing over-seeded Jerzy Janowicz in the second. He’s always been good on grass. And age doesn’t seem to matter on grass courts. Everything’s on track for a Hewitt-Federer fourth rounder, and it will be awesome.
- Radek Stepanek: He got an absolutely awful draw with Djokovic in the second, but if you’re looking for another Black Wednesday-level upset, it’s most likely going to be here. Stepanek knocked Murray out a couple weeks ago on grass, proving he can still play at an elite level.
- Marcos Baghdatis: Injuries forced him to miss a lot of the time, but the AB ranks still remember what his performance level was before the absence. He got a favorable draw, and has a great chance to upset Ferrer in the third.
Outlook for Americans
Strangely, John Isner has never really over-performed on grass despite his booming serve. Aside from a first-round Sam Querrey-Bradley Klahn matchup that guarantees an American in the second, it’s pretty much Isner or Bust here for the USA. However, Monday’s Donald Young-Benjamin Becker match makes a great proxy warmup for the USA-Germany match Thursday.
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