2014 U.S. Open: Tracking this year’s primary contenders

The North American hard-court swing provided a slightly refreshing change of pace from the last couple of years. Sure, Serena Williams won two tournaments (file under “Business As Usual”), but so did a resurgent Agnieszka Radwanska, who won her first Premier title in more than two years. Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had the biggest title wins of their careers to date in Washington and Cincinnati, respectively, and Novak Djokovic lost both of his tournaments.

While the women’s side is shaping up to be another Serena-versus-the-field affair, the men’s side looks a little more in doubt with the reigning hard-court king slumping and Rafael Nadal out due to injury. How much do the numbers back up the narratives?

Below are 52-week tracking graphs of the hard-adjusted Advanced Baseline ranks of the top contenders from last year’s U.S. Open until now. It’s a quick way to see what’s changed at the top of the ladder, and how and why it might be different this year.

Sure, Djokovic lost both of his tournaments, but only one was a convincing loss -- 6-2, 6-2 to Tsonga, who went on to win the event. It’s a mini-Nadal situation, where the losses aren’t enough to overwhelm Djokovic’s earlier hard-court success at Indian Wells and Miami. He still hasn’t done enough to drop his favorite status, and with Nadal out, it’s basically up to a resurgent Roger Federer, who is quietly closing the hard-court gap. He won Cincinnati, and we could be ready to see a repeat of the brilliant Wimbledon finals match between Nole and Fed.

The second tier doesn’t look promising. Andy Murray is pretty far removed from his 2012 U.S. Open win by now; there’s nothing he’s done all summer to suggest he’ll close the gap. Raonic, on the other hand, has had a far more convincing push; he won in Washington and made deep runs in the pair of Masters tournaments. I don’t think it’s quite enough to justify his 25-1 odds to win this year, but it’s definitely a visible jump from where he was this time last year.

Honestly, there’s just not much more ceiling for Serena to eclipse on hard-court. Her French Open scare was back in May, and it’s looking more and more like it was due to clay being her worst surface. Whatever ground she lost, she’s more than made up, and she looks like she’s right back at the level where she won last year.

The field, however, has gotten slightly tougher. Victoria Azarenka, last year’s main threat, has suffered an injury-related drop-off, and at seventh in the AB hard court ranks, she’s not at the moment a heavy contender. But last year’s field didn’t have Maria Sharapova, and last year’s second-tier contenders got slightly better. So did Radwanksa (fourth in AB hard court) and a great dark horse in Caroline Wozniacki (sixth), who’s gotten some unlucky draws of late. Wozniacki drew Serena in both Premier tournaments (and nearly won both matches, taking both to three sets).

Sure, Serena’s still a class above the rest, but the second tier is much stronger than last year. I actually like the women’s tournament to be much more up in the air than than the men’s this year.