Last year, the U.S. Open was pretty much tabbed as a two-horse race between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Now that Nadal’s out with an injury, the narrative has completely changed to ... a two horse race between Djokovic and a resurgent Roger Federer. Yes, the two of them still only combine for just over 50 percent win probability, meaning that it’s just as likely someone else will win, but it has more or less the same dynamic as last year.
2014 U.S. Open men’s preview: It’s Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer vs. the field
The defending champion isn’t in the field this year, which means there are a whole lot of points up for grabs. Who has the best opportunity to claim them?
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Forecast and Draw Analysis
Generated from Advanced Baseline win probabilities by simulating the tournament 100,000 times. The round probabilities, along with each player’s expected points and draw effects, are shown below. Full methodology explained here. Dashboarding provided by John Mathis.
To see each individual player’s outlook, select their name from the drop-down menu below.
U.S. Open preview
Contenders
Djokovic’s and Federer’s odds didn’t get influenced by the draw too much, but the second tier’s definitely did. Milos Raonic, fresh off a great North American season, is in great shape to continue his momentum with a cakewalk draw up until Kei Nishikori in the fourth round. A faltering Stan Wawrinka is his projected obstacle to the semis; I have Raonic as a solid favorite in that matchup.
Andy Murray is probably the biggest draw loser of the second tier. Sure, Djokovic in the quarters definitely puts a damper on things, but I think he’s hindered more by a second-rounder with Radek Stepanek (who gave Djokovic a scare in the second at Wimbledon this summer) and Toronto champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth. This is definitely Raonic’s best shot at a U.S. Open run to date.
Unseeded Dark Horses
- David Goffin. It’s probably cheating to call someone that won four tournaments in a row a dark horse, but he’s still only No. 50 in the ATP ranks. He has a golden draw for the first two rounds, getting qualifiers and the most overseeded player in the field in Joao Sousa. If Grigor Dimitrov doesn’t survive tough Carlos Berlocq in the second round, Goffin has a real shot at reaching the second week.
- Steve Johnson. He’s definitely the favorite to claim Last American Standing (non-Isner division) this year thanks to his draw. He got a sub-150 qualifier in the first round, and Feliciano Lopez is one of the easiest seeds he could’ve hoped for in the second. Plus, potential third-rounder Ernests Gulbis might not survive upstart Dominic Thiem.
- Bernard Tomic. Even though he’s been stuck in qualifying hell lately, he still managed to win a 250 in Colombia this summer. Tomic-Ferrer should be a great popcorn match in the second round; if he pulls off the upset, none of his potential round-three opponents should get in his way en route to the second week.
Outlook for Americans
John Isner continues to be the de facto flag bearer this year; unfortunately, not only has he taken a step back over the last year, but his projected fourth-rounder with Djokovic (not to mention a third-rounder with perpetual nemesis Philipp Kohlschreiber) tends to dampen his chances.
After Isner and Johnson, Donald Young looks to have the next greatest chance at success thanks to a favorable draw: a sub-100 first-rounder and a slightly overseeded Jeremy Chardy provide a workable path to a third-round match with Wawrinka.
Jack Sock has definitely taken a step forward this year, but it’s probably too much to ask for him to upset Kei Nishikori in the second round.
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