After Serena Williams’ bizarre Wimbledon exit this summer, she has gone 12-1 on hard courts. That’s a testament to how much hard courts are her favorite surface. The fields have been tough in the tournaments she has entered as well; it’s not like she’s taken the easy route. And with Na Li out of the field, Williams’ competition is weak enough that she’s once again a heavy favorite this year in New York.
2014 U.S. Open Women’s forecast: Serena Williams heavy favorite
In the past couple months, Serena Williams has done just enough to bring it back to “Serena vs. the field” at the U.S. Open. That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of good story lines to be found elsewhere, however.
Chris Trotman
Forecast and Draw Analysis
Generated from Advanced Baseline win probabilities by simulating the tournament 100,000 times. The round probabilities, along with each player’s expected points and draw effects, are shown below. Full methodology explained here. Dashboarding provided by John Mathis.
To see each individual player’s outlook, select their names from the drop-down menu below.
U.S. Open preview
Contenders
Not like she needed it, but Serena got a little bit of a boost from the draw with an incredibly weak section before the fourth round. That comes mostly at the expense of next-in-line Maria Sharapova, who will get a challenge from former top-15 Maria Kirilenko in the first round and a near-guaranteed third rounder with Sabine Lisicki, who has no real obstacles on her way.
As much as Simona Halep has broken through this year, I actually like Agnieszka Radwanska to upstage her a little in this tournament, thanks to a late surge in Montreal and a fantastic early-round draw.
Unseeded Dark Horses
- Elina Svitolina: Currently 19th in AB hard court rankings but still unseeded, she drew Polona Hercog off her favored clay surface in the first and should be a slight dog to even more underseeded Ekaterina Makarova in the second (it’s a shame this has to happen so early). The draw doesn’t get any easier after that, but it’s not impossible either.
- Monica Niculescu. Always on the verge of breaking into the seeds, she may have a decent run anyway thanks to her draw. She should be favored in both of her first two matches, and a third-rounder with Eugenie Bouchard, who I maintain is overseeded, should be a better match than people anticipate.
- Camila Giorgi. Before New Haven last week, her middling clay season was enough to make people forget about her hard-court success in March, when she went deep at Indian Wells and upset Sharapova. Getting countrywoman and clay-court specialist Sara Errani qualifies as the break she’s looking for in the draw (I have that match at about a coin flip), which should make for a great matchup with Venus Williams in the third.
Outlook for Americans
Madison Keys is officially no longer a dark horse and got a proper seed! And she couldn’t have asked for a better draw either, getting three sub-100 AB hard court players in the first two rounds. Keys-Kvitova in the third should be one of the best matches of the first week, and would be the feel-good breakthrough we’ve been expecting for a while.
Sloane Stephens is just behind in terms of expected points thanks to an average draw; she’s slightly cooled off her overperforming-in-Slams trend of late. And Coco Vandeweghe is probably the last American woman to watch, thanks to her quarters run in Montreal, taking out Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic along the way. All of her seeded matches are tough but winnable, a Serena-Vandeweghe fourth rounder would be a great way to kick off the second week.
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