Minnesota Lynx host Phoenix Mercury in WNBA playoffs: preview, predictions, key matchups, and more

The Minnesota Lynx (30-10) have flown under the radar all year despite a phenomenal season, and they’ll host the flailing Phoenix Mercury (19-21) on Sunday. It could be one of the last times we ever see Diana Taurasi play, and it could also be the beginning of a legendary postseason run for Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, and the rest of the squa.

This #2 vs #7 matchup doesn’t seem particularly ripe for an upset, but let’s dive into the keys for both teams regardless:

Game 1 will be in Minnesota on Sunday, September 22nd at 5pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 2 will be in Minnesota on Wednesday, September 25th at 9:30pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will be on Phoenix on Friday, September 27th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

Lynx: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Alanna Smith
Mercury: Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner, Natasha Cloud

This series has the potential to be the most lopsided first-round series of the pack. The Lynx have been the league’s best team since the Olympic break, going 13-2, while the Mercury have been one of the worst, amassing a 6-9 record. Anything can happen in a three-game series, but these are two teams heading in distinctly opposite directions.

Napheesa Collier is central to everything Minnesota does, and she’s put together the best season of her career (and an undeniable MVP-caliber campaign). Collier averaged 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 34.7 minutes per game, while also making a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year.

But, what makes Minnesota so great is that it’s not just Collier leading the charge. Kayla McBride has been crucial as a spacer and a scorer, solidifying herself as one of the league’s best three-point shooters. Courtney Williams has been one of the most underrated playmakers in the league. Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton are both having seasons worthy of the Most Improved Player award. Cheryl Reeve has maximized this roster, and everything seems to be clicking heading into the postseason.

On the Mercury side, this could be Diana Taurasi’s final week of professional basketball, and that’s been a big headline headline this season (and rightfully so). The reality is that Taurasi has actually been solid this year despite obviously not being in her prime, but the Mercury have not been able to put the pieces together.

Sophie Cunningham has emerged as a locker room leader and a Sixth Player of the Year candidate. Brittney Griner has had a great individual season less than two years removed from Russian imprisonment, and Natasha Cloud has excelled on both ends — but things just haven’t meshed the way the front office hoped.

Entering the first round of the postseason, the disparity between Minnesota and Phoenix is undeniable — Minnesota has had the league’s second-best defensive rating this year (94.8) while Phoenix has the fourth-worst (105.4). Phoenix has also been the league’s second-worst rebounding team this year, which has been one of many factors that have contributed to stretches of losing basketball. The Mercury will need to flip a switch for an upset, and after playing so inconsistently this regular season, that will be tough to do.

Kahleah Copper started the year on a tear, and was even in the MVP conversation in the early days. She has cooled off as of late, but always has the potential to be the best player on the floor, as she showed in the 2021 Finals when the led the Chicago Sky to a WNBA championship.

The Mercury are going to have to play a lot better than they have played since the break if they are to really challenge the Lynx, and Copper is going to have to be her absolute best self to give them a chance.